I've broken the "on the fence" teams down into four different tiers. My predictions are what I think happens come tournament selection time - not as things stand today.
These are my locks and automatic bids:
LOCKS ( 32 ) - North Carolina, Virginia Tech, Virginia, Maryland, Duke, Boston College, Kansas, Texas, Texas A&M, Pittsburgh, Georgetown, Louisville, Notre Dame, Marquette, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Indiana, Memphis, Butler, Southern Illinois, BYU, UNLV, Air Force, UCLA, Washington State, USC, Oregon, Arizona, Florida, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Nevada
AUTO ( 21 ) - ( as things stand now ) Vermont, Xavier, ETSU, Winthrop, Weber State, Long Beach State, VCU, Wright State, Pennsylvania, Marist, Oral Roberts, Akron, Delaware State, CCSU, Austin Peay, Holy Cross, Davidson, Sam Houston State, Mississippi Valley State, South Alabama, Gonzaga
This leaves 12 spots for 36 bubble teams.
Tier 1 ( Almost Clinched ):
#1. Stanford ( 44 RPI /18 SOS ):
Remaining Games: Arizona State/Arizona
Stanford has all but clinched a spot, but obviously can't slip up against an Arizona State team that's playing very well down the stretch.
My prediction: Arizona State ( W ), Arizona ( W ) 19-10 ( 11 - 7 )
IN
#2. Kentucky ( 11 RPI / 2 SOS)
Remaining Games: Georgia/at Florida
Kentucky has all the computer numbers, but they aren't playing well at all and lack a marquee win. If they end up getting swept by Georgia, it's probably really time to panic.
My prediction: Georgia ( W ), at Florida ( L ) 20-10 ( 9 - 7 )
IN
#3. Creighton ( 29 RPI / 28 SOS )
Remaining Games: MVC tournament
Another team that's not playing good basketball down the stretch. They're still pretty much guaranteed to get in due to finishing 2nd in the 6th rated conference in the RPI. That's especially true with such a weak bubble team field this year. Get by the quarterfinals in the MVC tourney and they're in with no questions asked.
My prediction: Regular season over
IN
#4. Villanova ( 21 RPI / 7 SOS )
Remaining Games: at Connecticut/Syracuse
Good computer numbers and several really good wins ( at Georgetown, Notre Dame, Texas, Louisville ) means they're all but in unless they drop their final two.
My prediction: at Connecticut ( W ), Syracuse ( W ) 20-9 ( 9 - 7 )
IN
#5. Syracuse ( 48 RPI / 51 SOS )
Remaining Games: at Villanova
The Orange seem to have clinched a tournament birth with their win over Georgetown and would get in for sure if they can steal a win at Nova. Even if they don't get that, they're still probably safe with 10 Big East wins. They probably want to win a game in the Big East tournament for good measure though.
My prediction: at Villanova ( L ) 21 - 9 ( 10 - 6 )
IN
#6. Michigan State ( 22 RPI / 13 SOS )
Remaining Games: at Wisconsin
Michigan State got two huge wins last week against Wisconsin and Indiana. Dropped a tough road game to Michigan last night, but that still didn't hurt their profile that much considering they have no bad losses and several really quality wins. They'll get their final chance at a marquee road win against the Badgers to end the regular season. Of course, if they were to take that one it'd jump them to lock status.
My prediction: at Wisconsin ( L ) 21-10 ( 8 - 8 )
IN
#7. Missouri State ( 36 RPI / 44 SOS )
Remaining Games: MVC tournament
They did well to get a road win over struggling Wichita State and are probably in the same boat as Creighton - with such a weak bubble field, they probably won't be left out of the tournament after finishing 3rd in the MVC. The Bears probably don't want to risk being one and done in the MVC tourney though after what happened last year. I think if they get their quarterfinal win against Wichita State, they're safe.
My prediction: Regular season over
IN
#8. Old Dominion ( 34 RPI / 93 SOS )
Remaining Games: CAA tournament
Not many teams are playing as well as the Monarchs are these past few months. They're on an 11 game winning streak which includes good wins at Toledo and Drexel along with home wins over Hofstra and VCU. They probably need to get into the finals of the CAA tournament to feel really safe. There would be no shame in losing the championship to VCU on VCU's home floor. Their Georgetown win is also looking better and better.
My prediction: Regular season over
IN
Second Tier ( Work to do ):
#1. Illinois ( 31 RPI / 25 SOS )
Remaining Games: at Iowa
Illinois doesn't have a single good win away from home unless you count their Mizzou and Bradley wins that were played a few miles down the road. They need to beat Iowa to finish out the regular season heading into the Big Ten tourney.
My prediction: at Iowa ( L ) 21 - 10 ( 9 - 7 )
OUT
#2. Texas Tech ( 47 RPI / 14 SOS )
Remaining Games: Baylor/ at Iowa State
Not many teams have three wins like Texas Tech does over Kansas once and Texas A&M twice. They've got two easier games left before the Big 12 tournament and must win both.
My prediction: Baylor ( W ), at Iowa State ( W ) 20-11 ( 9 - 7 )
IN
#3. Oklahoma State ( 41 RPI/ 31 SOS )
Remaining Games: at Baylor/ at Nebraska
The Cowboys picked up a must win at home over Kansas State and need to win out in the regular season to have a chance to go dancing - particularly since they're still 0-fer on the road in the Big 12. I really think they're starting to turn it around and can get it done.
My prediction: at Baylor ( W ), at Nebraska ( W ) 21-9 ( 8 - 8 )
IN
#4. Winthrop ( 68 RPI/ 249 SOS )
Remaining Games: Big South tournament
I have them in as my automatic bid, but if they fall in the Big South championship to High Point I still think they'd have to get in. As much as their four non div-1 games have been talked about, it's not their fault they can't get anybody to play them at home. Also, let us not forget their road wins over ODU and Mississippi State.
My prediction: Regular season over
IN ( Auto bid, but if need be at large )
#5. West Virginia ( 55 RPI / 95 SOS )
Remaining Games: Cincinnati
Two good wins for the entire year and nary a decent road win. They need to win a few in the Big East tournament.
My prediction: Cincinnati ( W ) 20-8 ( 9 - 7 )
OUT
#6. Florida State ( 49 RPI/ 16 SOS )
Remaining Games: at Miami
Lots of good wins but have really faltered down the stretch with Douglas hurt. Thankfully for the 'Noles, they're getting him back in time for ACC tournament play. We'll see if that ends up being enough. Need at least one, perhaps two wins in the ACC tourney.
My prediction: at Miami ( W ) 19 - 11 ( 7 - 9 )
IN
#7. Georgia Tech ( 52 RPI / 37 SOS )
Remaining Games: North Carolina/ Boston College
Well, they certainly have their shot this week to prove they belong in the tournament. They almost pulled one out at Virginia which might have lifted them to the almost in category but faltered down the stretch. A win over UNC would likely put them over the top.
My prediction: North Carolina ( L ), Boston College ( W ) 19 - 11 ( 7 - 9 )
OUT
#8. Purdue ( 40 RPI / 33 SOS )
Remaining Games: Minnesota/ Northwestern
There's no more opportunities in the regular season to impress so they're going to have to get busy in the Big Ten tournament. A lack of any good road wins and a few really bad losses ( at Minnesota and Indiana State ) will prove to be costly.
My prediction: Minnesota ( W), Northwestern ( W ) 20-10 ( 9 - 7 )
OUT
#9. Alabama ( 45 RPI/ 53 SOS )
Remaining Games: Ole Miss/ at Mississippi State
Mark Gottfried coached teams play their best when backed into a corner and all is lost, and, truthfully, I wouldn't be surprised if they somehow won out in the regular season. Even if they did happen to make that happen, I'm not sure it'd be enough. They need to atleast get past the SEC tournament quarterfinals.
My prediction Ole Miss ( W ), Mississippi State ( L ) 20-10 ( 7 - 9 )
OUT
#10. Georgia ( 53 RPI/ 20 SOS )
Remaining Games: at Kentucky/ Tennessee
Like Georgia Tech, this is a make or break week for the Bulldogs. It'd be huge for them to get a win at Rupp over the struggling Wildcats and the Tennessee game at home is very winnable. Win both and they're in. Split and win one SEC tourney game and they'll have to sweat it.
My prediction: at Kentucky ( L ), Tennessee ( W ) 17-11 ( 9 - 7 )
OUT
#11. Drexel ( 42 RPI/ 100 SOS )
Remaining Games: CAA tournament
One of the best road teams in the country with wins over Villanova, Syracuse, Creighton, Vermont, and Hofstra away from home. The Dragons need to atleast get into the semifinals of the CAA tourney to be safe.
My prediction: Regular season over
IN
#12. Kansas State ( 58 RPI/ 89 SOS )
Remaining Games: Oklahoma
Ten wins in the Big 12 would usually get you in with no questions asked, but with how average the league is this year in the middle and towards the bottom that might not be the case. A lack of good wins unless they can get hot in the Big 12 tourney will keep them out.
My prediction: Oklahoma ( W ) 21-10 ( 10 - 6 )
OUT
#13. Clemson ( 43 RPI/ 39 SOS )
Remaining Games: Miami/ at Virginia Tech
Talk about a team fading. They've got to beat Virginia Tech to get back into consideration and a few wins in the ACC tourney wouldn't hurt either.
My prediction: Miami ( W ), at Virginia Tech ( L ) 20-10 ( 6 - 10 )
OUT
#14. Xavier ( 35 RPI/ 85 SOS )
Remaining Games: St. Joseph's/ at La Salle
Xavier has put themselves into pretty decent position to garner an at large bid if they can win their next two and get to the A-10 finals.
My prediction: St. Joseph's ( W ), at La Salle ( W ) 23-7 ( 13 - 3 )
IN ( auto ), IN ( otherwise )
Tier 3 ( A prayer ):
#1. Appalachian State ( 56/ 157 SOS )
Remaining Games: Southern tournament
Lots of good wins, but two sub 200 losses really hurt. Need to win the Southern tourney.
My prediction: Regular season over
OUT
#2. Bradley ( 46 RPI/ 27 SOS )
Remaining Games: MVC tournament
Good computer numbers and some really nice wins, but NIU loss at home probably killed their at large hopes. Need to get to the MVC finals.
My prediction:
OUT
#3. Ole Miss ( 61 RPI/ 74 SOS )
Remaining Games: at Alabama/ Auburn
Nary a good road or neutral site wins means no tournament bid unless they can get a win at Alabama and get into the SEC semis. As you'll see later, this will become a theme.
My prediction: at Alabama ( L ), Auburn ( W ) 19-11 ( 8 - 8 )
OUT
#4. Gonzaga ( 69 RPI/ 91 SOS )
Remaining Games: WCC tournament
Lots of good wins with Heytvelt, but since they're going to be judged on being without him I don't think they'll get in without the auto bid. They might have somewhat of a case if they lose to Santa Clara in the finals
My prediction: Regular season over
IN ( auto ) OUT ( otherwise )
#5. Michigan ( 50 RPI/ 50 SOS )
Remaining Games: Ohio State
It's pretty simple. They beat Ohio State and they're probably in. If not, it's another NIT season.
My prediction: Ohio State ( L ) 20-11 ( 8 - 8 )
OUT
#6. VCU ( 59 RPI/ 138 SOS )
Remaining Games: CAA tournament
You may ask how I could leave the CAA champion out when I have ODU and Drexel in. Well, VCU doesn't even come close to matching their OOC wins and their overall computer profile is quite weak. The committee won't be impressed if they drop a game in the CAA tourney on their own floor.
My prediction:
IN ( auto ) OUT ( otherwise )
#7. Providence ( 71 RPI/ 40 SOS )
Remaining Games: at South Florida/ at St. John's
Dropped a key home game against Syracuse which might have burst their bubble. Need to finish the regular season out strong and go deep in the Big East tourney.
My prediction: at South Florida ( W ), at St. John's ( W ) 19-10 ( 9 - 7 )
OUT
#8. UMass ( 57 RPI/ 125 SOS )
Remaining Games: La Salle/ at St. Joseph's
Need to atleast win out and then get to the A-10 tourney final to be considered. Probably needs to get the auto bid at this point.
My prediction: La Salle ( W ), at St. Joseph's ( W ) 23-7 ( 11 - 3 )
OUT
Tier 4 ( So you're saying there's a chance ):
#1. San Diego State ( 54 RPI/ 68 SOS )
Remaining Games: TCU
Their road loss to Utah probably did their at large chances in. The only option now seems to be winning the MWC tournament.
My prediction: TCU ( W ) 19 - 9 ( 10 - 6 )
OUT
#2. Arkansas ( 63 RPI/ 12 SOS )
Remaining Games: Mississippi State/ at Vanderbilt
There's too much talent on this team for potentially 15 losses. Like Mississippi State below, they need to win out and advance into the SEC semifinals to get a sniff from the committee. My guess is Stan Heath is fired after the year concludes.
My prediction: Mississippi State ( W ), at Vanderbilt ( L ) 17-13 ( 6 - 10 )
OUT
#3. Mississippi State ( 65 RPI/ 42 SOS )
Remaining Games: at Arkansas/ Alabama
The Bulldogs need to take the SEC West title and advance into the SEC semifinals. I don't think either will happen.
My prediction: at Arkansas ( L ), Alabama ( W ) 17-12 ( 8 - 8 )
OUT
#4. DePaul ( 60 RPI/ 19 SOS )
Remaining Games: South Florida
They've gotten a couple good wins over Notre Dame and Marquette recently and can hang their hat on the Kansas win, but early season losses to Northwestern, UAB, and St. John's will be their undoing. They probably need to atleast make it to the Big East conference championship to be put under real consideration. Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised to see that happen either with how well they're playing.
My prediction: South Florida ( W ) 17-12 ( 9 - 7 )
OUT
#5. Davidson ( 62 RPI/ 206 SOS )
Remaining Games: Southern tournament
They breezed through Southern Conference play and have no bad losses, but don't particularly have any good wins either. They really need to win the Southern tournament to be safe.
My prediction: Regular season over
IN ( Auto ) OUT ( otherwise )
#6. Hofstra ( 67 RPI/ 144 SOS )
Remaining Games: CAA tournament
Truthfully, their only chance now is to win the CAA tourney.
My prediction: Regular season over
OUT
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8 comments:
i think its pretty incredible that drexel is considered IN because of wins at villanova, syracuse, creighton, vermont, and hofstra, none are currently in the top 25. if a big east team wins against those same teams, no way would it be considered good enough. compare that to a grueling big east schedule. way to much credit given to a team that has not proven much. way to much credit to mid-majors, its gotten ridiculous. ncaa tourney is now about politics to appease mid-major complainers to the detriment of teams from major conferences that are WAY WAY BETTER.
Alright, name me one bubble team from the Big East that has as many good wins as Drexel does.
West Virginia is 2-6 on the road in conference with those two wins coming against Rutgers and Seton Hall. Where are the good road wins for them?
Providence is 1-5 on the road in the Big East with that lone win against Connecticut. Where are the good road wins for them?
DePaul is 3-5 on the road in the Big East with those three coming against Villanova ( which Drexel also did ), South Florida, and Rutgers. Other than the Villanova win, they don't even come close to matching Drexel's road success.
Villanova is 4-4 with wins over Georgetown, Seton Hall, Connecticut, and Providence. Notice that also coincides with me having them in the tournament.
Syracuse is 4-3 with wins over Providence, South Florida, Rutgers, and Marquette. Notice I also have them in the tournament.
You say, "if a big east team wins against those same teams, no way would it be considered good enough". The thing is, none of the bubble Big East teams that I have out have done close to what Drexel has. Notice anything with the teams I don't have in? Other than them not even being capable of doing what Drexel did, most of their road wins came against the dregs of the Big East. Are you telling me Drexel isn't just as solid as West Virginia?
y?
my point is you are using big east bubble teams as examples of drexel's great wins. syracuse wasn't considered IN until they beat #9 georgetown. and i don't think anyone considers villanova a lock (but they should be). this is a perfect example of how flawed the rpi is. syracuse beats georgetown, therefore drexel is considered a great team. you coincide drexel being in because of a game they had nothing to do with? drexel did not play georgetown! you can not credit them for anything! syracuse didn't even start playing good until 5 or so games ago. suddenly a team starts playing good, and then drexel benefits. do you understand what i am saying. this is not logical. we are sacrificing logic for the sake of the ridiculous rpi which benefits mid majors who don't even have to win a great game, yet the majors do. this results in mediocrity in the ncaa tourney. and as far how easy it is to play the dregs of the big east, i would wager the biggest dreg of the big east can beat most teams in the caa with 3 players against 5.
As of right now I would have Drexel as one of the last four in. I agree with ebl that WVU, Providence and DePaul do not have as good of a resume as Drexel.
First, let me respond to your "would wager the biggest dreg of the big east can beat most teams in the caa with 3 players against 5".
These Big East teams have the following losses:
South Florida - UAB, Richmond
St. John's - Illinois State
Seton Hall - Fairleigh Dickinson
Cincinnati - Ohio, Wofford, UAB
Rutgers - Jackson State, Miami U., Temple
Providence - Brown
DePaul - UAB, Northwestern
I'd say all of those teams I listed are worse or equal to the average CAA team. Most of the bubble teams from the Big East have upped their win total against terrible Big East teams. Most of the elite Big East teams have upped their win total against the average and terrible Big East teams. So maybe nobody in the Big East is any good. Common sense, though, tells us that Syracuse is pretty good - especially at home. Common sense tells us that winning at Villanova is a pretty tough thing to do. Common sense tells us that most major conference teams on the bubble don't have two wins as good as those. That's not to mention the few others you scoffed at like Creighton, Vermont, and Hofstra. I think Boston College found out it was pretty tough to play against Vermont - and that was AT BC. I also find it amusing that you totally dismiss the RPI when you cite "none of those teams Drexel beat are currently in the top 25". Yeah, there's a reliable poll.
You say the tournament play is becoming mediocre by allowing mid majors in. Why? What BCS conference bubble teams aren't average this year? Drexel is a road warrior and that should mean something in the day of age where a major conference team is praised for getting 3 road wins in a single year.
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