NIT West Region Breakdown

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#1 Air Force vs #8 Austin Peay

When I was talking about South Alabama being the coldest team coming into the NIT, well, scratch that. Air Force has lost 4 in a row including two must wins that would have probably gotten them into the tournament ( BYU at home, Wyoming in the MWC tourney ). They've been getting pounded on the boards, which isn't that unusual for them, but their shooting has really gone south. As has their defense. The Falcons have given up 50% FG% in three straight games. So they can't shoot it, can't rebound, and their defense has faltered. Thankfully for Air Force, Austin Peay doesn't rebound well, defend well, or shoot well either. Both of these teams slow the tempo down to a crawl which definitely plays into the hands of Air Force. Austin Peay won't be able to capitalize on their offensive possessions like the Falcons can if they're able to regain their three point shooting stroke.

Air Force 66 Austin Peay 54

#2 Kansas State vs #7 Vermont

Many thought Kansas State had a gripe after winning 10 games in the Big 12 and being left out of the tournament. However, only one of those ten wins was really impressive - their win at Texas. For a Big 12 team, one would think they could just outmuscle Vermont. The opposite should hold true - Vermont has the definitive advantage in the paint with forwards Chris Holm ( 10.6 ppg, 12.1 rpg ) and Martin Klimes ( 6.6 ppg, 4.6 rpg ). Kansas State has two huge freshmen big men in Luis Colon and Jason Bennett ( 7'3, 265 ), but they haven't been playing recently and are foul machines. Vermont also has the necessary prototypical 6'5/7 wings that can defend Cartier Martin ( 16.9 ppg, 4.4 rpg ) and David Hoskins ( 14.3 ppg, 6 rpg, 2.5 apg ). Vermont plays standout defense and can really push people, like Kansas State, around on the glass. The question may be if they can regain their shooting stroke after the debacle against Albany in the AEC championship game and how well freshman small forward Joe Trapani ( 11.7 ppg, 4.5 rpg ) plays, still recovering from an injury. I'm seeing a second 7 seed upset over a Big 12 team.

Vermont 70 Kansas State 65

#3 DePaul vs #6 Hofstra

DePaul was the last team out of my final NIT projections and they wind up getting a three seed. I have no problem with them getting in - but how did they manage to get a 3 seed? Over Ole Miss and Appalachian State for example? In any event, this should be an interesting contrast of styles. Even though Hofstra has one of the best backcourts in the country, they choose to slow the pace. As does DePaul. However, Hofstra, with all of those guards, has a difficult time rebounding or stopping a dominant low post man. The Blue Demons have one of the more talented young interior guys in the country with Wilson Chandler ( 14.2 ppg, 6.9 rpg, 1.4 bpg ) and will no doubt spend a large amount of time getting him the ball. Another disadvantage for Hofstra is even with their great guard play of Loren Stokes ( 20.9 ppg, 5.7 rpg, 3 apg ), Antoine Agudio ( 20 ppg, 4 rpg, 2.4 apg ), and Carlos Rivera ( 13.1 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 4 apg, they're still outmatched physically against DePaul. We'll see if DePaul guards Sammy Mejia ( 6'6, 195 ) and Draelon Burns ( 6'4, 220 ) can take advantage. When successful, and much of the time Hofstra is ( 9th in the country in 3PT FG%), they hit their threes. Much like the Air Force game I previewed, this should be similiar. In a slow it down style of play, Hofstra is much more likely to capitalize on their offensive possessions than DePaul is. It also helps that DePaul is one of the more poor 3 point shooting defensive teams in the Big East.

Hofstra 69 DePaul 65

#4 Georgia vs #5 Fresno State

Georgia, fresh off getting blown out against Florida in the SEC quarters, also lacks the services of second leading scorer Mike Mercer who's done for the season with an injury. Fresno State got upset in the WAC quarters against Boise State, but have been hot recently beating New Mexico State twice and Utah State once in their past seven games. Both teams like to push the tempo and can rebound the ball well, but the comparisons end there. Fresno State absolutely gets after it on defense ranking in the top 8 nationally in FG%, 2PT FG%, 3PT FG%, eFG%, and blocks per game. They'll face a tough challenge against a team that is very dangerous behind the arc and also possesses a matchup problem in forward/center Takais Brown ( 14.1 ppg, 5.8 rpg ). Fresno State has the length to guard him, but do they have the thickness ( Brown is a ripped 250 ) to stop him? The question that must be answered, and is pivotal to Fresno State winning, is pretty obvious. Can they shoot well? For much of the season, they've been horrid in most every offensive category. Georgia isn't exactly terrible defensively and I don't think Fresno State's great defense will overcome their tragic offense.

Georgia 66 Fresno State 60