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#1 Clemson vs #8 East Tennessee State
I'm not sure what to make of Clemson being a #1 seed. There are a few other teams I definitely would have seeded ahead of the Tigers. In any event, they should get a fairly good test from ETSU who fell on their own floor to Belmont in the A-Sun conference championship game. Neither team is considerably deep, but ETSU should put a considerably larger starting lineup on the court other than 6' A-Sun POY Courtney Pigram ( 17.8 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 3.7 apg ). That helped lead them to be the best rebounding team in the Atlantic Sun, and they're also a very stout defensive team ranking in the top 50 nationally in most defensive categories. Particularly impressive is their .86 points given up defensively per possession in conference play. Of course, none of that mattered in their blowout loss to Belmont to end the regular season where the Bruins absolutely blitzed them from behind the arc ( 14 - 29 ). Courtney Pigram aside, Clemson still holds a distinct advantage in the backcourt and has the inside muscle of James Mays and Trevor Booker to get ETSU's foul prone front court in trouble early.
Clemson 76 East Tennessee State 65
#2 Syracuse vs #7 South Alabama
Syracuse, like Drexel, felt like they deserved to be in the tournament and Jim Boeheim has been making the radio rounds since Sunday pleading his case. Who knows if Syracuse will even really come to play in the NIT. It all adds up to the Orange being ripe to getting knocked out early. Fortunately for them, South Alabama may be the coldest team coming into this tourney having lost four in a row after reeling off 13 straight wins. The Jaguars don't particularly do anything very well - they don't score easily, they don't rebound, they don't play particularly great defense. They went on that long winning streak with smoke and mirrors and an interesting full court press defense. All of this should be a testament to Coach John Pelphrey who engineered this pretty fantastic season if you consider they lost most of what they had off last year's tournament team. Syracuse is quite error prone and lacks a plethora of ball handlers so the Jaguar press might annoy them early on. However, if they're able, Syracuse has lots of big bodies to throw it to down low which is where they are far superior to South Alabama. Darryl Watkins ( 8.4 ppg, 7.4 rpg, 3.4 bpg ) and Terrence Roberts ( 8.8 ppg, 8.1 rpg, 1.4 bpg ) create a formidable low post team and even wing/leading scorer Demetris Nichols ( 19 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 1.5 spg ) is bigger than most of the Jaguars' interior players. This should translate into the Orange passing it over the USA press for easy buckets.
Syracuse 75 South Alabama 60
#3 Missouri State vs #6 San Diego State
Quite the disappointing year for the Missouri State Bears. After last season's controversy of being the highest rated RPI team to ever be left out of the tournament, this was supposed to be their season. It looked promising early on with a win over Wisconsin and a blowout victory over Santa Clara. Things took a nose dive from there and they've found themselves back in the NIT. Like another MVC team I previewed, Bradley, they're deadly from behind the arc with team leader and three point ace Blake Ahearn ( 47% 3PT FG, 93% FT ) leading the way. They're also very deliberate with the ball only having around 68 possessions per game. It helps when you're also top 20 nationally in assists/turnovers ratio. On the other hand, San Diego State loves to push the ball and can really beat you down in the paint with a pair of 6'10 fowards Mohamed Abukar ( 15.9 ppg, 5.8 rpg ) and Jerome Habel ( 11 ppg, 6.2 rpg ). Fortunately for the Aztecs, they have two guys that can get them the ball in last year's conference POY Brandon Heath ( 19.2 ppg, 4 rpg, 3.6 apg ) and petite 5'9, 158 PG Richie Williams ( 7.2 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 4.6 apg ). It'll be interesting to see if Missouri State can find anybody to match up against SDSU's size and if they can also impose their slowed tempo on the Aztecs. It could be a long night for the Bears if they get in a running match. San Diego State hasn't played well on the road and, like Bradley's game, I think home court advantage will be a big factor in this one.
Missouri State 71 San Diego State 66
#4 Ole Miss vs #5 Appalachian State
In my mind, this is the most interesting game of the first round. Andy Kennedy deserves every bit of his SEC Coach of the Year recognitions after taking a team that was taught a "sludge" basketball philosophy under ex-coach Rod Barnes and making them an up tempo offensive minded club. Both of these teams run up and down the court and can scorch the nets. Appalachian State may actually have more depth than the Rebels, but Ole Miss does go deeper in their frontcourt which could be key in an up and down game like this one should be. Ole Miss' main big man Dwayne Curtis ( 12 ppg, 8.3 rpg ) is hobbled by an injury which could really open up the interior for Virginia transfer and current Mountaineer Donte Minter ( 11.4 ppg, 5 rpg ) or Jeremy Clayton ( 10.2 ppg, 7.1 rpg ). Both teams have very solid senior point guards in Ole Miss' Todd Abernethy ( 10.8 ppg, 3 rpg, 5.6 apg ) and App State's D.J. Thompson ( 15.5 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 5 apg, 2.5 spg ) combined with a host of other guards that can bomb from deep. Since these veteran teams are so evenly matched, you can almost flip a coin. Ole Miss has lost at home only once this season and that was to Kentucky on the first weekend of SEC play. Home court advantage could be key yet again.
Ole Miss 78 Appalachian State 76
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