For all NIT related coverage, click here.
#1 Mississippi State vs #8 Mississippi Valley State
Talk about a mismatch. Mississippi State, though young, is very deep and arguably one of the more talented SEC teams. MVSU, on the other hand, does nothing particularly well offensively as evidenced by them ranking 260th or lower in every major offensive category. Even though their defensive statistics are very impressive, it's largely due to them playing 18 games against the worst shooting conference in the country - also known as the SWAC. The Delta Devils don't have enough bodies to stop all of the offensive firepower of MSU. Do it all "point-forward/linebacker" Jamont Gordon ( 16 ppg, 7.2 rpg, 4.9 apg, 1.3 spg ) for the Bulldogs should really go off.
Mississippi State 80 Mississippi Valley State 58
#2 Florida State vs #7 Toledo
Florida State thought they had a tournament berth locked up after their February 4th win at Duke. Three point specialist and starting 2 guard Toney Douglas then proceeded to go down with a hand injury which resulted in four losses in five games. Douglas returned and helped lead them to an improbable comeback OT win at Miami and a key victory against Clemson. Though that wasn't enough to secure a tournament bid, they're still a very dangerous team that could reach the NIT Finals. They shouldn't sleep on Toledo though. They're a senior led, guard heavy team that has hung very well with some really good teams earlier in the season ( 5 point L at Drexel, 5 point OT L at Vanderbilt, 10 point L at Kansas, 3 point L vs Old Dominion ). The difference should be All-American Al Thornton. The Rockets really don't have anybody that can guard him.
Florida State 71 Toledo 63
#3 Michigan vs #6 Utah State
It's becoming pretty routine for Michigan to end up in the NIT having appeared in three of the last four. Utah State came within a desperation three at the buzzer of beating New Mexico State and heading to their third straight tournament appearance. The Aggies certainly won't be fearful of playing at Michigan with all but one of their key players having tournament experience. Utah State isn't a deep team going with only 7 players usually, but those 7 are quite talented. The question that must be answered though is how will they stop Courtney Sims and Brent Petway for Michigan on the interior? USU has some bulk, but do they have enough to beat a Michigan team whose starting lineup averages about 6'6 tall away from Logan, Utah? I think they do. Junior guard Jaycee Carroll ( 21.3 ppg, 6.8 rpg, 1.8 apg ) will be the difference in the first upset of the NIT.
Utah State 63 Michigan 61
#4 Bradley vs #5 Providence
Bradley suffered a heart-breaking loss in the MVC semifinals to Southern Illinois and now find themselves in another tough matchup against Providence. The Friars are the mirror opposite of Bradley in their team strength with their huge low post duo of Herbert Hill ( 18 ppg, 8.7 rpg, 3 bpg ) and Geoff McDermott ( 9.7 ppg, 9.2 rpg, 5.3 apg ) while the Braves absolutely bomb away from deep. In fact, they lead the country in 3PT FG% at 42.8% with guard Jeremy Crouch shooting an incredible 51% from downtown. Really, the only person Bradley puts on the court who doesn't shoot 3s is their big man Zach Andrews ( 11.1 ppg, 6.9 rpg ). As he's their only true low post player, he's going to have to avoid foul trouble for Bradley to be in good shape. Unfortunately for the Braves, staying out of foul trouble isn't exactly something he's keen on doing with him having fouled out of 9 games so far this season. The Braves do have something going for them though, and that's Providence being a fairly poor 3 point defending team ( 176th in the country which ranks them 12th in the Big East ). That will be the difference in a close back and forth game. Unlike most other arenas come NIT time, I think Bradley fans will really come out and support their team tomorrow night which is another huge boost.
Bradley 68 Providence 64
Tuesday, March 13, 2007
Play-in Game ( Florida A&M vs Niagara ) Breakdown
For all tournament related coverage, click here.
Niagara
Best Player: G/F Charron Fisher leads the way with his 21 ppg and 8.1 rpg. While he was suspended for the first 8 games of the year for fighting in August, the Purple Eagles went 2-6.
Overview: As mentioned before, Niagara got off to a rough start without Fisher, but have been hot down the stretch winning 13 of their last 14 and 11 straight. They start and play all guards/small forwards which could give some bigger teams, like Kansas, matchup problems. Even with their small lineup, Niagara rebounds very well. They're top 35 in the country in RPG, D-REB%, and REB% along with first in their conference in all three. The Purple Eagles play a very up and down, fast paced tempo which leads to many transition points for the opposing team. They need to lock their defense down to avoid the earliest exit of them all.
Florida A&M
Best Player: F Rome Sanders ( 15.3 ppg, 5.9 rpg ) will pose problems for Niagara on the interior with his size. He's an adept scorer ( 65% FG%, 76% FT% ) having scored 20+ points ten times this season.
Overview: Like Niagara, other than Sanders and Alabama transfer Akini Adkins ( who plays very little ), they play all small forwards and guards who can really rebound the ball. That also translates into a more uptempo style that isn't exactly commonplace in the MEAC. Unlike the Purple Eagles, they actually play defense leading the MEAC in FG% defense and most key rebounding categories.
Prediction:
Niagara 80 Florida A&M 75
While many thought Florida A&M would wind up in the play-in game after their buzzer beater win in the MEAC championship over Delaware State, it was a shock that Niagara could even wind up being a 16 seed - much less actually facing Florida A&M on Tuesday. If the Rattlers can defend the perimeter well, something they aren't very good at doing, or Niagara goes cold from behind the arc, Florida A&M has a good shot. They have a huge advantage in the paint with Rome Sanders and Niagara must find a way to neutralize him.
Niagara
Best Player: G/F Charron Fisher leads the way with his 21 ppg and 8.1 rpg. While he was suspended for the first 8 games of the year for fighting in August, the Purple Eagles went 2-6.
Overview: As mentioned before, Niagara got off to a rough start without Fisher, but have been hot down the stretch winning 13 of their last 14 and 11 straight. They start and play all guards/small forwards which could give some bigger teams, like Kansas, matchup problems. Even with their small lineup, Niagara rebounds very well. They're top 35 in the country in RPG, D-REB%, and REB% along with first in their conference in all three. The Purple Eagles play a very up and down, fast paced tempo which leads to many transition points for the opposing team. They need to lock their defense down to avoid the earliest exit of them all.
Florida A&M
Best Player: F Rome Sanders ( 15.3 ppg, 5.9 rpg ) will pose problems for Niagara on the interior with his size. He's an adept scorer ( 65% FG%, 76% FT% ) having scored 20+ points ten times this season.
Overview: Like Niagara, other than Sanders and Alabama transfer Akini Adkins ( who plays very little ), they play all small forwards and guards who can really rebound the ball. That also translates into a more uptempo style that isn't exactly commonplace in the MEAC. Unlike the Purple Eagles, they actually play defense leading the MEAC in FG% defense and most key rebounding categories.
Prediction:
Niagara 80 Florida A&M 75
While many thought Florida A&M would wind up in the play-in game after their buzzer beater win in the MEAC championship over Delaware State, it was a shock that Niagara could even wind up being a 16 seed - much less actually facing Florida A&M on Tuesday. If the Rattlers can defend the perimeter well, something they aren't very good at doing, or Niagara goes cold from behind the arc, Florida A&M has a good shot. They have a huge advantage in the paint with Rome Sanders and Niagara must find a way to neutralize him.
Tournament Coverage This Week
Tuesday
Wednesday
- Opening round play-in game previewed
- First round of the NIT previewed and examined
- Predictions all the way through the NIT championship
Wednesday
- First round of the tournament previewed and examined
- Predictions all the way through the national championship
Monday, March 12, 2007
My projection results and what's coming up in the next few days..
Tourney
63/65 teams picked correctly ( Air Force and Syracuse instead of Purdue and Arkansas )
28 teams seeded correctly
50 teams picked within one seed
NIT
30/32 teams picked correctly ( Akron and Washington instead of Fresno State and DePaul )
11 teams seeded correctly
26 teams picked within one seed
Overall, I wasn't totally thrilled with how everything came out. I really considered sticking Arkansas in at the last minute to replace Syracuse and I'm shocked Akron was left out of the NIT for Fresno State. Washington too. The late switching around I did in my tournament projections cost me seeding wise.
I'll have game by game breakdowns and predictions for each of the NIT and tourney games in the next few days though. Stay tuned.
63/65 teams picked correctly ( Air Force and Syracuse instead of Purdue and Arkansas )
28 teams seeded correctly
50 teams picked within one seed
NIT
30/32 teams picked correctly ( Akron and Washington instead of Fresno State and DePaul )
11 teams seeded correctly
26 teams picked within one seed
Overall, I wasn't totally thrilled with how everything came out. I really considered sticking Arkansas in at the last minute to replace Syracuse and I'm shocked Akron was left out of the NIT for Fresno State. Washington too. The late switching around I did in my tournament projections cost me seeding wise.
I'll have game by game breakdowns and predictions for each of the NIT and tourney games in the next few days though. Stay tuned.
Sunday, March 11, 2007
NCAA Tourney and NIT Final Bracket Projections ( March 11th )
My apologies for the short leave.
Click on the images for an enlarged view.
Tourney
Last Five In: Air Force, Syracuse, Old Dominion, Stanford, Illinois
Last Five Out: Purdue, Kansas State, Drexel, Florida State, Arkansas
NIT
Last Five In: Providence, Hofstra, North Carolina State, San Diego State, Akron
Last Five Out: LSU, Bucknell, Iowa, Missouri, DePaul
Click on the images for an enlarged view.
Tourney
Last Five In: Air Force, Syracuse, Old Dominion, Stanford, Illinois
Last Five Out: Purdue, Kansas State, Drexel, Florida State, Arkansas
NIT
Last Five In: Providence, Hofstra, North Carolina State, San Diego State, Akron
Last Five Out: LSU, Bucknell, Iowa, Missouri, DePaul
Friday, March 9, 2007
Short hiatus
I'll be back on Sunday with my final bracket projections and full tourney/NIT previews once the brackets are released. Enjoy the basketball this weekend!
Wednesday, March 7, 2007
Conference Tourney Predictions ( 3/7 )
Results as of today:
87 - 36 ( 6 out of 11 conference champions picked correctly )
So, pretty average thus far.
87 - 36 ( 6 out of 11 conference champions picked correctly )
So, pretty average thus far.
Tuesday, March 6, 2007
NCAA Tourney and NIT Bracket Projections ( March 6th )
Click on the images for enlarged views.
Tourney
Last Five In: Illinois, Drexel, Old Dominion, Missouri State, Syracuse
Last Five Out: Florida State, Purdue, West Virginia, Kansas State, Clemson
Clinched: Pennsylvania, Winthrop, Belmont, Davidson, Eastern Kentucky, Creighton, Niagara, Virginia Commonwealth, Gonzaga
NIT
Last Five In: Santa Clara, LSU, Auburn, Utah State, New Mexico State
Last Five Out: Bucknell, Dayton, Northern Iowa, Kent State, Fresno State/Connecticut
Clinched: Marist, Austin Peay, South Alabama, Toledo, East Tennessee State
MEAC, Mountain West, and WAC Conference Tourney Predictions
I wanted to go ahead and put my predictions down for tonight's games in case I don't get to put them in jpeg format before tip offs. I'll also be putting up the A-10 and Big East conference tourney predictions among others by tomorrow morning.
MEAC
#7 Hampton over #10 Howard
#9 Bethune-Cookman over #8 Coppin State
MWC
#9 New Mexico over #8 TCU
WAC
#8 San Jose State over #9 Idaho
MEAC
#7 Hampton over #10 Howard
#9 Bethune-Cookman over #8 Coppin State
MWC
#9 New Mexico over #8 TCU
WAC
#8 San Jose State over #9 Idaho
Coming tomorrow..
Network problems have prevented me from posting the updated tourney projections. Really, it was just moving Delaware State up to Western Kentucky's 15 seed line and North Texas into Delaware State's 16 seed spot against UNC. I should have it up by tomorrow morning.
I'll also have the MEAC, MWC, and WAC conference tourney predictions up as well.
I'll also have the MEAC, MWC, and WAC conference tourney predictions up as well.
Monday, March 5, 2007
NCAA Tourney and NIT Bracket Projections ( March 5th )
Click on the images for enlarged views.
Tourney
Last Five In: Illinois, Drexel, Old Dominion, Missouri State, Syracuse
Last Five Out: Florida State, Purdue, West Virginia, Kansas State, Clemson
Clinched: Pennsylvania, Winthrop, Belmont, Davidson, Eastern Kentucky, Creighton
NIT
Last Five In: Santa Clara, LSU, Auburn, Utah State, New Mexico State
Last Five Out: Bucknell, Dayton, Northern Iowa, Kent State, Fresno State/Connecticut
Clinched: Marist, Austin Peay, South Alabama, Toledo, East Tennessee State
Saturday, March 3, 2007
NCAA Tourney and NIT Bracket Projections ( March 2nd )
Click on the image for an enlarged view. NIT bracket will be up Saturday night.
Tourney
Last Five In: Georgia Tech, Texas Tech, Drexel, Illinois, Old Dominion
Last Five Out: Oklahoma State, West Virginia, Purdue, Florida State, Alabama
Big East ( 7): Pittsburgh, Marquette, Louisville, Georgetown, Notre Dame, Villanova, Syracuse
ACC ( 6 ): North Carolina, Virginia Tech, Virginia, Boston College, Duke, Georgia Tech
Pac-10 ( 6 ): UCLA, Washington State, Arizona, Oregon, Stanford, Southern Cal
Big Ten ( 5 ): Wisconsin, Ohio State, Indiana, Illinois, Michigan State
Big 12 ( 4 ): Kansas, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech
SEC ( 4 ): Florida, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Tennessee
MVC ( 3 ): Southern Illinois, Creighton, Missouri State
MWC ( 3 ): Air Force, UNLV, BYU
CAA ( 3 ): Virginia Commonwealth, Old Dominion, Drexel
Horizon ( 2 ): Butler, Wright State
Clinched: Pennsylvania
Friday, March 2, 2007
America East, Big Sky, Colonial, MAAC, Mid-Con, and WCC Conference Tourney Predictions
I'll also have a tourney and NIT bracket projection update Friday evening.
Wednesday, February 28, 2007
The Bubble Rundown ( Feb 28th )
I've broken the "on the fence" teams down into four different tiers. My predictions are what I think happens come tournament selection time - not as things stand today.
These are my locks and automatic bids:
LOCKS ( 32 ) - North Carolina, Virginia Tech, Virginia, Maryland, Duke, Boston College, Kansas, Texas, Texas A&M, Pittsburgh, Georgetown, Louisville, Notre Dame, Marquette, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Indiana, Memphis, Butler, Southern Illinois, BYU, UNLV, Air Force, UCLA, Washington State, USC, Oregon, Arizona, Florida, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Nevada
AUTO ( 21 ) - ( as things stand now ) Vermont, Xavier, ETSU, Winthrop, Weber State, Long Beach State, VCU, Wright State, Pennsylvania, Marist, Oral Roberts, Akron, Delaware State, CCSU, Austin Peay, Holy Cross, Davidson, Sam Houston State, Mississippi Valley State, South Alabama, Gonzaga
This leaves 12 spots for 36 bubble teams.
Tier 1 ( Almost Clinched ):
#1. Stanford ( 44 RPI /18 SOS ):
Remaining Games: Arizona State/Arizona
Stanford has all but clinched a spot, but obviously can't slip up against an Arizona State team that's playing very well down the stretch.
My prediction: Arizona State ( W ), Arizona ( W ) 19-10 ( 11 - 7 )
IN
#2. Kentucky ( 11 RPI / 2 SOS)
Remaining Games: Georgia/at Florida
Kentucky has all the computer numbers, but they aren't playing well at all and lack a marquee win. If they end up getting swept by Georgia, it's probably really time to panic.
My prediction: Georgia ( W ), at Florida ( L ) 20-10 ( 9 - 7 )
IN
#3. Creighton ( 29 RPI / 28 SOS )
Remaining Games: MVC tournament
Another team that's not playing good basketball down the stretch. They're still pretty much guaranteed to get in due to finishing 2nd in the 6th rated conference in the RPI. That's especially true with such a weak bubble team field this year. Get by the quarterfinals in the MVC tourney and they're in with no questions asked.
My prediction: Regular season over
IN
#4. Villanova ( 21 RPI / 7 SOS )
Remaining Games: at Connecticut/Syracuse
Good computer numbers and several really good wins ( at Georgetown, Notre Dame, Texas, Louisville ) means they're all but in unless they drop their final two.
My prediction: at Connecticut ( W ), Syracuse ( W ) 20-9 ( 9 - 7 )
IN
#5. Syracuse ( 48 RPI / 51 SOS )
Remaining Games: at Villanova
The Orange seem to have clinched a tournament birth with their win over Georgetown and would get in for sure if they can steal a win at Nova. Even if they don't get that, they're still probably safe with 10 Big East wins. They probably want to win a game in the Big East tournament for good measure though.
My prediction: at Villanova ( L ) 21 - 9 ( 10 - 6 )
IN
#6. Michigan State ( 22 RPI / 13 SOS )
Remaining Games: at Wisconsin
Michigan State got two huge wins last week against Wisconsin and Indiana. Dropped a tough road game to Michigan last night, but that still didn't hurt their profile that much considering they have no bad losses and several really quality wins. They'll get their final chance at a marquee road win against the Badgers to end the regular season. Of course, if they were to take that one it'd jump them to lock status.
My prediction: at Wisconsin ( L ) 21-10 ( 8 - 8 )
IN
#7. Missouri State ( 36 RPI / 44 SOS )
Remaining Games: MVC tournament
They did well to get a road win over struggling Wichita State and are probably in the same boat as Creighton - with such a weak bubble field, they probably won't be left out of the tournament after finishing 3rd in the MVC. The Bears probably don't want to risk being one and done in the MVC tourney though after what happened last year. I think if they get their quarterfinal win against Wichita State, they're safe.
My prediction: Regular season over
IN
#8. Old Dominion ( 34 RPI / 93 SOS )
Remaining Games: CAA tournament
Not many teams are playing as well as the Monarchs are these past few months. They're on an 11 game winning streak which includes good wins at Toledo and Drexel along with home wins over Hofstra and VCU. They probably need to get into the finals of the CAA tournament to feel really safe. There would be no shame in losing the championship to VCU on VCU's home floor. Their Georgetown win is also looking better and better.
My prediction: Regular season over
IN
Second Tier ( Work to do ):
#1. Illinois ( 31 RPI / 25 SOS )
Remaining Games: at Iowa
Illinois doesn't have a single good win away from home unless you count their Mizzou and Bradley wins that were played a few miles down the road. They need to beat Iowa to finish out the regular season heading into the Big Ten tourney.
My prediction: at Iowa ( L ) 21 - 10 ( 9 - 7 )
OUT
#2. Texas Tech ( 47 RPI / 14 SOS )
Remaining Games: Baylor/ at Iowa State
Not many teams have three wins like Texas Tech does over Kansas once and Texas A&M twice. They've got two easier games left before the Big 12 tournament and must win both.
My prediction: Baylor ( W ), at Iowa State ( W ) 20-11 ( 9 - 7 )
IN
#3. Oklahoma State ( 41 RPI/ 31 SOS )
Remaining Games: at Baylor/ at Nebraska
The Cowboys picked up a must win at home over Kansas State and need to win out in the regular season to have a chance to go dancing - particularly since they're still 0-fer on the road in the Big 12. I really think they're starting to turn it around and can get it done.
My prediction: at Baylor ( W ), at Nebraska ( W ) 21-9 ( 8 - 8 )
IN
#4. Winthrop ( 68 RPI/ 249 SOS )
Remaining Games: Big South tournament
I have them in as my automatic bid, but if they fall in the Big South championship to High Point I still think they'd have to get in. As much as their four non div-1 games have been talked about, it's not their fault they can't get anybody to play them at home. Also, let us not forget their road wins over ODU and Mississippi State.
My prediction: Regular season over
IN ( Auto bid, but if need be at large )
#5. West Virginia ( 55 RPI / 95 SOS )
Remaining Games: Cincinnati
Two good wins for the entire year and nary a decent road win. They need to win a few in the Big East tournament.
My prediction: Cincinnati ( W ) 20-8 ( 9 - 7 )
OUT
#6. Florida State ( 49 RPI/ 16 SOS )
Remaining Games: at Miami
Lots of good wins but have really faltered down the stretch with Douglas hurt. Thankfully for the 'Noles, they're getting him back in time for ACC tournament play. We'll see if that ends up being enough. Need at least one, perhaps two wins in the ACC tourney.
My prediction: at Miami ( W ) 19 - 11 ( 7 - 9 )
IN
#7. Georgia Tech ( 52 RPI / 37 SOS )
Remaining Games: North Carolina/ Boston College
Well, they certainly have their shot this week to prove they belong in the tournament. They almost pulled one out at Virginia which might have lifted them to the almost in category but faltered down the stretch. A win over UNC would likely put them over the top.
My prediction: North Carolina ( L ), Boston College ( W ) 19 - 11 ( 7 - 9 )
OUT
#8. Purdue ( 40 RPI / 33 SOS )
Remaining Games: Minnesota/ Northwestern
There's no more opportunities in the regular season to impress so they're going to have to get busy in the Big Ten tournament. A lack of any good road wins and a few really bad losses ( at Minnesota and Indiana State ) will prove to be costly.
My prediction: Minnesota ( W), Northwestern ( W ) 20-10 ( 9 - 7 )
OUT
#9. Alabama ( 45 RPI/ 53 SOS )
Remaining Games: Ole Miss/ at Mississippi State
Mark Gottfried coached teams play their best when backed into a corner and all is lost, and, truthfully, I wouldn't be surprised if they somehow won out in the regular season. Even if they did happen to make that happen, I'm not sure it'd be enough. They need to atleast get past the SEC tournament quarterfinals.
My prediction Ole Miss ( W ), Mississippi State ( L ) 20-10 ( 7 - 9 )
OUT
#10. Georgia ( 53 RPI/ 20 SOS )
Remaining Games: at Kentucky/ Tennessee
Like Georgia Tech, this is a make or break week for the Bulldogs. It'd be huge for them to get a win at Rupp over the struggling Wildcats and the Tennessee game at home is very winnable. Win both and they're in. Split and win one SEC tourney game and they'll have to sweat it.
My prediction: at Kentucky ( L ), Tennessee ( W ) 17-11 ( 9 - 7 )
OUT
#11. Drexel ( 42 RPI/ 100 SOS )
Remaining Games: CAA tournament
One of the best road teams in the country with wins over Villanova, Syracuse, Creighton, Vermont, and Hofstra away from home. The Dragons need to atleast get into the semifinals of the CAA tourney to be safe.
My prediction: Regular season over
IN
#12. Kansas State ( 58 RPI/ 89 SOS )
Remaining Games: Oklahoma
Ten wins in the Big 12 would usually get you in with no questions asked, but with how average the league is this year in the middle and towards the bottom that might not be the case. A lack of good wins unless they can get hot in the Big 12 tourney will keep them out.
My prediction: Oklahoma ( W ) 21-10 ( 10 - 6 )
OUT
#13. Clemson ( 43 RPI/ 39 SOS )
Remaining Games: Miami/ at Virginia Tech
Talk about a team fading. They've got to beat Virginia Tech to get back into consideration and a few wins in the ACC tourney wouldn't hurt either.
My prediction: Miami ( W ), at Virginia Tech ( L ) 20-10 ( 6 - 10 )
OUT
#14. Xavier ( 35 RPI/ 85 SOS )
Remaining Games: St. Joseph's/ at La Salle
Xavier has put themselves into pretty decent position to garner an at large bid if they can win their next two and get to the A-10 finals.
My prediction: St. Joseph's ( W ), at La Salle ( W ) 23-7 ( 13 - 3 )
IN ( auto ), IN ( otherwise )
Tier 3 ( A prayer ):
#1. Appalachian State ( 56/ 157 SOS )
Remaining Games: Southern tournament
Lots of good wins, but two sub 200 losses really hurt. Need to win the Southern tourney.
My prediction: Regular season over
OUT
#2. Bradley ( 46 RPI/ 27 SOS )
Remaining Games: MVC tournament
Good computer numbers and some really nice wins, but NIU loss at home probably killed their at large hopes. Need to get to the MVC finals.
My prediction:
OUT
#3. Ole Miss ( 61 RPI/ 74 SOS )
Remaining Games: at Alabama/ Auburn
Nary a good road or neutral site wins means no tournament bid unless they can get a win at Alabama and get into the SEC semis. As you'll see later, this will become a theme.
My prediction: at Alabama ( L ), Auburn ( W ) 19-11 ( 8 - 8 )
OUT
#4. Gonzaga ( 69 RPI/ 91 SOS )
Remaining Games: WCC tournament
Lots of good wins with Heytvelt, but since they're going to be judged on being without him I don't think they'll get in without the auto bid. They might have somewhat of a case if they lose to Santa Clara in the finals
My prediction: Regular season over
IN ( auto ) OUT ( otherwise )
#5. Michigan ( 50 RPI/ 50 SOS )
Remaining Games: Ohio State
It's pretty simple. They beat Ohio State and they're probably in. If not, it's another NIT season.
My prediction: Ohio State ( L ) 20-11 ( 8 - 8 )
OUT
#6. VCU ( 59 RPI/ 138 SOS )
Remaining Games: CAA tournament
You may ask how I could leave the CAA champion out when I have ODU and Drexel in. Well, VCU doesn't even come close to matching their OOC wins and their overall computer profile is quite weak. The committee won't be impressed if they drop a game in the CAA tourney on their own floor.
My prediction:
IN ( auto ) OUT ( otherwise )
#7. Providence ( 71 RPI/ 40 SOS )
Remaining Games: at South Florida/ at St. John's
Dropped a key home game against Syracuse which might have burst their bubble. Need to finish the regular season out strong and go deep in the Big East tourney.
My prediction: at South Florida ( W ), at St. John's ( W ) 19-10 ( 9 - 7 )
OUT
#8. UMass ( 57 RPI/ 125 SOS )
Remaining Games: La Salle/ at St. Joseph's
Need to atleast win out and then get to the A-10 tourney final to be considered. Probably needs to get the auto bid at this point.
My prediction: La Salle ( W ), at St. Joseph's ( W ) 23-7 ( 11 - 3 )
OUT
Tier 4 ( So you're saying there's a chance ):
#1. San Diego State ( 54 RPI/ 68 SOS )
Remaining Games: TCU
Their road loss to Utah probably did their at large chances in. The only option now seems to be winning the MWC tournament.
My prediction: TCU ( W ) 19 - 9 ( 10 - 6 )
OUT
#2. Arkansas ( 63 RPI/ 12 SOS )
Remaining Games: Mississippi State/ at Vanderbilt
There's too much talent on this team for potentially 15 losses. Like Mississippi State below, they need to win out and advance into the SEC semifinals to get a sniff from the committee. My guess is Stan Heath is fired after the year concludes.
My prediction: Mississippi State ( W ), at Vanderbilt ( L ) 17-13 ( 6 - 10 )
OUT
#3. Mississippi State ( 65 RPI/ 42 SOS )
Remaining Games: at Arkansas/ Alabama
The Bulldogs need to take the SEC West title and advance into the SEC semifinals. I don't think either will happen.
My prediction: at Arkansas ( L ), Alabama ( W ) 17-12 ( 8 - 8 )
OUT
#4. DePaul ( 60 RPI/ 19 SOS )
Remaining Games: South Florida
They've gotten a couple good wins over Notre Dame and Marquette recently and can hang their hat on the Kansas win, but early season losses to Northwestern, UAB, and St. John's will be their undoing. They probably need to atleast make it to the Big East conference championship to be put under real consideration. Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised to see that happen either with how well they're playing.
My prediction: South Florida ( W ) 17-12 ( 9 - 7 )
OUT
#5. Davidson ( 62 RPI/ 206 SOS )
Remaining Games: Southern tournament
They breezed through Southern Conference play and have no bad losses, but don't particularly have any good wins either. They really need to win the Southern tournament to be safe.
My prediction: Regular season over
IN ( Auto ) OUT ( otherwise )
#6. Hofstra ( 67 RPI/ 144 SOS )
Remaining Games: CAA tournament
Truthfully, their only chance now is to win the CAA tourney.
My prediction: Regular season over
OUT
These are my locks and automatic bids:
LOCKS ( 32 ) - North Carolina, Virginia Tech, Virginia, Maryland, Duke, Boston College, Kansas, Texas, Texas A&M, Pittsburgh, Georgetown, Louisville, Notre Dame, Marquette, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Indiana, Memphis, Butler, Southern Illinois, BYU, UNLV, Air Force, UCLA, Washington State, USC, Oregon, Arizona, Florida, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Nevada
AUTO ( 21 ) - ( as things stand now ) Vermont, Xavier, ETSU, Winthrop, Weber State, Long Beach State, VCU, Wright State, Pennsylvania, Marist, Oral Roberts, Akron, Delaware State, CCSU, Austin Peay, Holy Cross, Davidson, Sam Houston State, Mississippi Valley State, South Alabama, Gonzaga
This leaves 12 spots for 36 bubble teams.
Tier 1 ( Almost Clinched ):
#1. Stanford ( 44 RPI /18 SOS ):
Remaining Games: Arizona State/Arizona
Stanford has all but clinched a spot, but obviously can't slip up against an Arizona State team that's playing very well down the stretch.
My prediction: Arizona State ( W ), Arizona ( W ) 19-10 ( 11 - 7 )
IN
#2. Kentucky ( 11 RPI / 2 SOS)
Remaining Games: Georgia/at Florida
Kentucky has all the computer numbers, but they aren't playing well at all and lack a marquee win. If they end up getting swept by Georgia, it's probably really time to panic.
My prediction: Georgia ( W ), at Florida ( L ) 20-10 ( 9 - 7 )
IN
#3. Creighton ( 29 RPI / 28 SOS )
Remaining Games: MVC tournament
Another team that's not playing good basketball down the stretch. They're still pretty much guaranteed to get in due to finishing 2nd in the 6th rated conference in the RPI. That's especially true with such a weak bubble team field this year. Get by the quarterfinals in the MVC tourney and they're in with no questions asked.
My prediction: Regular season over
IN
#4. Villanova ( 21 RPI / 7 SOS )
Remaining Games: at Connecticut/Syracuse
Good computer numbers and several really good wins ( at Georgetown, Notre Dame, Texas, Louisville ) means they're all but in unless they drop their final two.
My prediction: at Connecticut ( W ), Syracuse ( W ) 20-9 ( 9 - 7 )
IN
#5. Syracuse ( 48 RPI / 51 SOS )
Remaining Games: at Villanova
The Orange seem to have clinched a tournament birth with their win over Georgetown and would get in for sure if they can steal a win at Nova. Even if they don't get that, they're still probably safe with 10 Big East wins. They probably want to win a game in the Big East tournament for good measure though.
My prediction: at Villanova ( L ) 21 - 9 ( 10 - 6 )
IN
#6. Michigan State ( 22 RPI / 13 SOS )
Remaining Games: at Wisconsin
Michigan State got two huge wins last week against Wisconsin and Indiana. Dropped a tough road game to Michigan last night, but that still didn't hurt their profile that much considering they have no bad losses and several really quality wins. They'll get their final chance at a marquee road win against the Badgers to end the regular season. Of course, if they were to take that one it'd jump them to lock status.
My prediction: at Wisconsin ( L ) 21-10 ( 8 - 8 )
IN
#7. Missouri State ( 36 RPI / 44 SOS )
Remaining Games: MVC tournament
They did well to get a road win over struggling Wichita State and are probably in the same boat as Creighton - with such a weak bubble field, they probably won't be left out of the tournament after finishing 3rd in the MVC. The Bears probably don't want to risk being one and done in the MVC tourney though after what happened last year. I think if they get their quarterfinal win against Wichita State, they're safe.
My prediction: Regular season over
IN
#8. Old Dominion ( 34 RPI / 93 SOS )
Remaining Games: CAA tournament
Not many teams are playing as well as the Monarchs are these past few months. They're on an 11 game winning streak which includes good wins at Toledo and Drexel along with home wins over Hofstra and VCU. They probably need to get into the finals of the CAA tournament to feel really safe. There would be no shame in losing the championship to VCU on VCU's home floor. Their Georgetown win is also looking better and better.
My prediction: Regular season over
IN
Second Tier ( Work to do ):
#1. Illinois ( 31 RPI / 25 SOS )
Remaining Games: at Iowa
Illinois doesn't have a single good win away from home unless you count their Mizzou and Bradley wins that were played a few miles down the road. They need to beat Iowa to finish out the regular season heading into the Big Ten tourney.
My prediction: at Iowa ( L ) 21 - 10 ( 9 - 7 )
OUT
#2. Texas Tech ( 47 RPI / 14 SOS )
Remaining Games: Baylor/ at Iowa State
Not many teams have three wins like Texas Tech does over Kansas once and Texas A&M twice. They've got two easier games left before the Big 12 tournament and must win both.
My prediction: Baylor ( W ), at Iowa State ( W ) 20-11 ( 9 - 7 )
IN
#3. Oklahoma State ( 41 RPI/ 31 SOS )
Remaining Games: at Baylor/ at Nebraska
The Cowboys picked up a must win at home over Kansas State and need to win out in the regular season to have a chance to go dancing - particularly since they're still 0-fer on the road in the Big 12. I really think they're starting to turn it around and can get it done.
My prediction: at Baylor ( W ), at Nebraska ( W ) 21-9 ( 8 - 8 )
IN
#4. Winthrop ( 68 RPI/ 249 SOS )
Remaining Games: Big South tournament
I have them in as my automatic bid, but if they fall in the Big South championship to High Point I still think they'd have to get in. As much as their four non div-1 games have been talked about, it's not their fault they can't get anybody to play them at home. Also, let us not forget their road wins over ODU and Mississippi State.
My prediction: Regular season over
IN ( Auto bid, but if need be at large )
#5. West Virginia ( 55 RPI / 95 SOS )
Remaining Games: Cincinnati
Two good wins for the entire year and nary a decent road win. They need to win a few in the Big East tournament.
My prediction: Cincinnati ( W ) 20-8 ( 9 - 7 )
OUT
#6. Florida State ( 49 RPI/ 16 SOS )
Remaining Games: at Miami
Lots of good wins but have really faltered down the stretch with Douglas hurt. Thankfully for the 'Noles, they're getting him back in time for ACC tournament play. We'll see if that ends up being enough. Need at least one, perhaps two wins in the ACC tourney.
My prediction: at Miami ( W ) 19 - 11 ( 7 - 9 )
IN
#7. Georgia Tech ( 52 RPI / 37 SOS )
Remaining Games: North Carolina/ Boston College
Well, they certainly have their shot this week to prove they belong in the tournament. They almost pulled one out at Virginia which might have lifted them to the almost in category but faltered down the stretch. A win over UNC would likely put them over the top.
My prediction: North Carolina ( L ), Boston College ( W ) 19 - 11 ( 7 - 9 )
OUT
#8. Purdue ( 40 RPI / 33 SOS )
Remaining Games: Minnesota/ Northwestern
There's no more opportunities in the regular season to impress so they're going to have to get busy in the Big Ten tournament. A lack of any good road wins and a few really bad losses ( at Minnesota and Indiana State ) will prove to be costly.
My prediction: Minnesota ( W), Northwestern ( W ) 20-10 ( 9 - 7 )
OUT
#9. Alabama ( 45 RPI/ 53 SOS )
Remaining Games: Ole Miss/ at Mississippi State
Mark Gottfried coached teams play their best when backed into a corner and all is lost, and, truthfully, I wouldn't be surprised if they somehow won out in the regular season. Even if they did happen to make that happen, I'm not sure it'd be enough. They need to atleast get past the SEC tournament quarterfinals.
My prediction Ole Miss ( W ), Mississippi State ( L ) 20-10 ( 7 - 9 )
OUT
#10. Georgia ( 53 RPI/ 20 SOS )
Remaining Games: at Kentucky/ Tennessee
Like Georgia Tech, this is a make or break week for the Bulldogs. It'd be huge for them to get a win at Rupp over the struggling Wildcats and the Tennessee game at home is very winnable. Win both and they're in. Split and win one SEC tourney game and they'll have to sweat it.
My prediction: at Kentucky ( L ), Tennessee ( W ) 17-11 ( 9 - 7 )
OUT
#11. Drexel ( 42 RPI/ 100 SOS )
Remaining Games: CAA tournament
One of the best road teams in the country with wins over Villanova, Syracuse, Creighton, Vermont, and Hofstra away from home. The Dragons need to atleast get into the semifinals of the CAA tourney to be safe.
My prediction: Regular season over
IN
#12. Kansas State ( 58 RPI/ 89 SOS )
Remaining Games: Oklahoma
Ten wins in the Big 12 would usually get you in with no questions asked, but with how average the league is this year in the middle and towards the bottom that might not be the case. A lack of good wins unless they can get hot in the Big 12 tourney will keep them out.
My prediction: Oklahoma ( W ) 21-10 ( 10 - 6 )
OUT
#13. Clemson ( 43 RPI/ 39 SOS )
Remaining Games: Miami/ at Virginia Tech
Talk about a team fading. They've got to beat Virginia Tech to get back into consideration and a few wins in the ACC tourney wouldn't hurt either.
My prediction: Miami ( W ), at Virginia Tech ( L ) 20-10 ( 6 - 10 )
OUT
#14. Xavier ( 35 RPI/ 85 SOS )
Remaining Games: St. Joseph's/ at La Salle
Xavier has put themselves into pretty decent position to garner an at large bid if they can win their next two and get to the A-10 finals.
My prediction: St. Joseph's ( W ), at La Salle ( W ) 23-7 ( 13 - 3 )
IN ( auto ), IN ( otherwise )
Tier 3 ( A prayer ):
#1. Appalachian State ( 56/ 157 SOS )
Remaining Games: Southern tournament
Lots of good wins, but two sub 200 losses really hurt. Need to win the Southern tourney.
My prediction: Regular season over
OUT
#2. Bradley ( 46 RPI/ 27 SOS )
Remaining Games: MVC tournament
Good computer numbers and some really nice wins, but NIU loss at home probably killed their at large hopes. Need to get to the MVC finals.
My prediction:
OUT
#3. Ole Miss ( 61 RPI/ 74 SOS )
Remaining Games: at Alabama/ Auburn
Nary a good road or neutral site wins means no tournament bid unless they can get a win at Alabama and get into the SEC semis. As you'll see later, this will become a theme.
My prediction: at Alabama ( L ), Auburn ( W ) 19-11 ( 8 - 8 )
OUT
#4. Gonzaga ( 69 RPI/ 91 SOS )
Remaining Games: WCC tournament
Lots of good wins with Heytvelt, but since they're going to be judged on being without him I don't think they'll get in without the auto bid. They might have somewhat of a case if they lose to Santa Clara in the finals
My prediction: Regular season over
IN ( auto ) OUT ( otherwise )
#5. Michigan ( 50 RPI/ 50 SOS )
Remaining Games: Ohio State
It's pretty simple. They beat Ohio State and they're probably in. If not, it's another NIT season.
My prediction: Ohio State ( L ) 20-11 ( 8 - 8 )
OUT
#6. VCU ( 59 RPI/ 138 SOS )
Remaining Games: CAA tournament
You may ask how I could leave the CAA champion out when I have ODU and Drexel in. Well, VCU doesn't even come close to matching their OOC wins and their overall computer profile is quite weak. The committee won't be impressed if they drop a game in the CAA tourney on their own floor.
My prediction:
IN ( auto ) OUT ( otherwise )
#7. Providence ( 71 RPI/ 40 SOS )
Remaining Games: at South Florida/ at St. John's
Dropped a key home game against Syracuse which might have burst their bubble. Need to finish the regular season out strong and go deep in the Big East tourney.
My prediction: at South Florida ( W ), at St. John's ( W ) 19-10 ( 9 - 7 )
OUT
#8. UMass ( 57 RPI/ 125 SOS )
Remaining Games: La Salle/ at St. Joseph's
Need to atleast win out and then get to the A-10 tourney final to be considered. Probably needs to get the auto bid at this point.
My prediction: La Salle ( W ), at St. Joseph's ( W ) 23-7 ( 11 - 3 )
OUT
Tier 4 ( So you're saying there's a chance ):
#1. San Diego State ( 54 RPI/ 68 SOS )
Remaining Games: TCU
Their road loss to Utah probably did their at large chances in. The only option now seems to be winning the MWC tournament.
My prediction: TCU ( W ) 19 - 9 ( 10 - 6 )
OUT
#2. Arkansas ( 63 RPI/ 12 SOS )
Remaining Games: Mississippi State/ at Vanderbilt
There's too much talent on this team for potentially 15 losses. Like Mississippi State below, they need to win out and advance into the SEC semifinals to get a sniff from the committee. My guess is Stan Heath is fired after the year concludes.
My prediction: Mississippi State ( W ), at Vanderbilt ( L ) 17-13 ( 6 - 10 )
OUT
#3. Mississippi State ( 65 RPI/ 42 SOS )
Remaining Games: at Arkansas/ Alabama
The Bulldogs need to take the SEC West title and advance into the SEC semifinals. I don't think either will happen.
My prediction: at Arkansas ( L ), Alabama ( W ) 17-12 ( 8 - 8 )
OUT
#4. DePaul ( 60 RPI/ 19 SOS )
Remaining Games: South Florida
They've gotten a couple good wins over Notre Dame and Marquette recently and can hang their hat on the Kansas win, but early season losses to Northwestern, UAB, and St. John's will be their undoing. They probably need to atleast make it to the Big East conference championship to be put under real consideration. Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised to see that happen either with how well they're playing.
My prediction: South Florida ( W ) 17-12 ( 9 - 7 )
OUT
#5. Davidson ( 62 RPI/ 206 SOS )
Remaining Games: Southern tournament
They breezed through Southern Conference play and have no bad losses, but don't particularly have any good wins either. They really need to win the Southern tournament to be safe.
My prediction: Regular season over
IN ( Auto ) OUT ( otherwise )
#6. Hofstra ( 67 RPI/ 144 SOS )
Remaining Games: CAA tournament
Truthfully, their only chance now is to win the CAA tourney.
My prediction: Regular season over
OUT
NCAA Tourney and NIT Bracket Projections ( Feb 28th )
Click on the images for enlarged views.
Tourney
Last Five In: Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, Drexel, Illinois, Old Dominion
Last Five Out: Georgia Tech, West Virginia, Purdue, Florida State, Alabama
Big East ( 7): Pittsburgh, Marquette, Louisville, Georgetown, Notre Dame, Villanova, Syracuse
ACC ( 6 ): North Carolina, Virginia Tech, Virginia, Boston College, Duke, Maryland
Pac-10 ( 6 ): UCLA, Washington State, Arizona, Oregon, Stanford, Southern Cal
Big Ten ( 5 ): Wisconsin, Ohio State, Indiana, Illinois, Michigan State
Big 12 ( 5 ): Kansas, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State
SEC ( 4 ): Florida, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Tennessee
MVC ( 3 ): Southern Illinois, Creighton, Missouri State
MWC ( 3 ): Air Force, UNLV, BYU
CAA ( 3 ): Virginia Commonwealth, Old Dominion, Drexel
Horizon ( 2 ): Butler, Wright State
NIT
Last Five In: South Carolina, Santa Clara, Bucknell, St. Louis, North Carolina State
Last Five Out: Auburn, Kent State, Wichita State, Nebraska, Oklahoma
SEC ( 7 ): Alabama, Georgia, Arkansas, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, South Carolina, LSU
ACC ( 4 ): Georgia Tech, Florida State, Clemson, North Carolina State
Big East ( 3) : West Virginia, Providence, DePaul
Big Ten ( 3 ): Purdue, Michigan, Iowa
A-10 ( 2 ): UMass, St. Louis
Big 12 ( 2 ): Kansas State, Missouri
MVC ( 2 ): Bradley, Northern Iowa
Pac-Ten ( 2 ): Washington, Cal
WAC ( 2 ): Utah State, New Mexico State
It's pretty unbelievable that the SEC could have every team make the postseason in some form. Has a conference ever had that happen before?
Updates coming tomorrow
Instead of last night, I'll be posting the bubble team run downs tomorrow. I'll also be providing more conference tourney predictions.
Tuesday, February 27, 2007
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