NIT Final Four Breakdown

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#1 West Virginia vs #1 Mississippi State

One of these days West Virginia is going to be bitten by a formidable frontcourt. They've survived one of the best forward duos there is in UMass' Stephane Lasme and Rashaun Freeman and barely escaped N.C. State's Brandon Costner and Ben McCauley. Mississippi State poses another problem with forward Charles Rhodes and huge guards Jamont Gordon, Dietric Slater, and the Delk brothers ( Reginald and Richard ). I thought N.C. State would do a formidable job on West Virginia's star guard Frank Young, but they allowed him to get scorching hot down the stretch. Mississippi State really should have the guards to defend him. I keep picking West Virginia to lose and one of these days I'm going to be right.

Mississippi State 74 West Virginia 66

#1 Clemson vs #1 Air Force

Once again in an Air Force game, it's going to be a major clash of styles. The Falcons really haven't seen an up and down quick tempo attack so far in the NIT and could have some problems with Clemson's athleticism. As I cited in the Clemson - Ole Miss game preview, Clemson is a terrible free throw shooting team and it will cost them at some point in a close game. Of course, they ended up blowing the Rebs out, but their failures from the line almost lost the Syracuse game last week. I really don't see Air Force getting blown out and in what should actually be a close game this time, free throws will probably matter. Air Force holds a healthy advantage in that department as they're fifth in the nation in free throw shooting.

Air Force 62 Clemson 58

NIT West Region Finals Breakdown

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#1 Air Force vs #3 DePaul

Air Force has dismantled two straight opponents and are out to prove they belonged in the real tourney. They're also one of the toughest teams to beat at home but do face a tough matchup in DePaul. The Blue Demons are used to playing at an extremely slow speed ( 293rd in offensive possessions per game ), are one of the least turnover prone teams in the country, and really maximize their limited offensive possessions. However, DePaul likely won't be able to capitalize on their size like they did against Kansas State. Air Force is a pretty big team and it doesn't help DePaul that almost every person the Falcons put on the floor can shoot the three. What also doesn't help matters is that Air Force has seemingly regained their shooting stroke since the NIT began. Couple that with the fact the Blue Demons are a very poor three point shooting defensive team and I can't see Air Force, whose top four leading scorers are all very experienced seniors, losing at home.

Air Force 69 DePaul 60

NIT South Region Finals Breakdown

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#1 Clemson vs #2 Syracuse

I was definitely wrong about both of these teams in my second round predictions. Clemson absolutely tore apart Ole Miss' press for layup after layup and Syracuse had little trouble with San Diego State's inside game. This time, Syracuse won't possess the awesome home court advantage they had in the first two rounds. However, I also don't think they will get punished by Clemson in transition like Ole Miss did. Ole Miss had big bodies that could have put Clemson at a matchup disadvantage in the frontcourt, but they were never allowed to fully get in to the game with the fast tempo. Syracuse has the really big bodies that Ole Miss did ( Terrence Roberts, Darryl Watkins ), but they have something the Rebels didn't - huge forwards that can actually get out in transition and score ( Demetris Nichols, Paul Harris ). I fully believe Syracuse has the weapons that can beat Clemson in a transition or half court game.

Syracuse 74 Clemson 69

NIT East Region Finals Breakdown

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#1 West Virginia vs #6 North Carolina State

This game pits two similiar teams together. They both run incredibly precise motion offenses, lack depth, and attempt to play the game at their own slower pace. West Virginia acquitted themselves well in the second round against UMass as they were badly outmatched inside. They held their own and came away with a 90-77 win. West Virginia small forward Frank Young went off for 31 points and NCSU must stop him to get a victory in Morgantown. Fortunately for the Pack, they play much more physical defense than UMass does and possess the very athletic and long wings to shut him down. WVU is also faced with another tough frontcourt matchup as NCSU can pound it down low to Ben McCauley and Brandon Costner over and over. If Frank Young is stymied, West Virginia loses ( Young averages 9 points in WVU losses ). I think North Carolina State can and will stop him. This time, unlike the UMass game surprisingly, West Virginia is exposed in the paint.

North Carolina State 64 West Virginia 60

NIT North Region Finals Breakdown

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#1 Mississippi State vs #2 Florida State

Both teams are playing extremely well coming into this game as Florida State obliterated Michigan 87-66 and MSU destroyed Bradley 101-72 in the previous round. Florida State has a huge matchup problem for Mississippi State in Al Thornton. One would think MSU's huge guard Jamont Gordon would play Al Thornton, but he may not be quick enough to stay with Thornton or tall enough to effectively guard him along the perimeter. It's not likely the Bulldogs would put foul prone forward Charles Rhodes on Thornton because he'd likely foul out in the first half. However, on the other side of things, how will Florida State guard Jamont Gordon? Though Gordon is a fantastic player for MSU, he's still inconsistent and could possibly be taken out of this game somewhat by Florida State's large backcourt. Can they contend with Gordon's brute strength though? Probably not. Both of those guys are probably going to get their points so what this game could come down to is the paint. Mississippi State has the clear edge in rebounding and considering Florida State lacks a true back to the basket post player, Charles Rhodes and offensively challenged Jarvis Varnado could have very good games inside for MSU. Both of these teams can light it up from the perimeter and in what should be a high scoring affair, I must take the more complete team. It also doesn't hurt that this game is being played in Starkvegas. I'm a bit hamstrung by picking Florida State to go to New York in my bracket projections because the more I think about it, the more I think Mississippi State will win. I'm not sure Florida State has anybody to stop Charles Rhodes down low.

Mississippi State 83 Florida State 80

NIT West Region Second Round Breakdown

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#1 Air Force vs #4 Georgia

There's quite a contrast in styles in this one. Georgia pushes tempo and wants the game played in transition while Air Force will slow it down to a crawl. Though Georgia gave up many of their points to their first round opponent Fresno State in garbage time, they still need to lock up their perimeter defense against the Falcons. Air Force is the more fundamentally sound team, has homecourt advantage, and is likely to get their way in terms of style of play.

Air Force 64 Georgia 57

#2 Kansas State vs #3 DePaul

Kansas State struggles against big teams - and that's exactly what the Blue Demons are. Like Vermont did, DePaul figures to throw it down low to exploit KSU's small interior and they have the weapon to do it in forward Wilson Chandler. They also have athletic wings that can guard Kansas State's Cartier Martin, et al. DePaul did a pretty good job of letting Hofstra's fantastic guard trio get their points and shutting everybody else down in the first round. They need to have the same mentality tonight as Kansas State doesn't get points from lots of places.

DePaul 70 Kansas State 68

NIT South Region Second Round Breakdown

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#1 Clemson vs #4 Ole Miss

Clemson struggled to pull away in their first round NIT victory over East Tennessee State while Ole Miss beat Appalachian State soundly. These teams are pretty evenly matched as much of their scoring is spread out amongst a host of players ( Clemson has 5 players averaging in double figures, Ole Miss has 4 ) and possess solid big men and guards alike. The difference in this one could be free throw shooting in what should be a tight game. Clemson shoots 58.4% from the line as a team which is good for 333rd in the nation. On the other hand, Ole Miss shoots a solid 70.1% from the stripe. Clemson also isn't spectacular at home going going 4-4 in their last 8 games and with students out for spring break, there doesn't figure to be a huge home court advantage. Ole Miss is playing too well right now to drop this one.

Ole Miss 71 Clemson 68

#2 Syracuse vs #6 San Diego State

If Syracuse had played a better opponent in the first round, I would have surely picked Syracuse to lose. As is, they almost dropped one to a struggling South Alabama team and it's concerning how poor their defense and rebounding were. They gave up 11 offensive boards, got outrebounded, and let the Jaguards shoot 13-30 from behind the arc before USA faltered late. San Diego State picked up a very impressive road win over Missouri State in the opening round and have the weapons offensively to actually keep a late lead over Syracuse. If South Alabama was able to more than hold their own on the inside, San Diego State should do even better with big men Jerome Habel and Mohamed Abukar leading the way. Former Mountain West POY Brandon Heath poured in 26 points against Missouri State and needs to have another big game for the Aztecs to beat Syracuse in the Carrier Dome. It should be noted that I was very, very impressed with the crowd that turned out for Syracuse's win over South Alabama considering the students weren't on campus at the time. The place should be rocking again, but I think San Diego State has enough to get it done.

San Diego State 78 Syracuse 74

Quick update

Due to weekend long internet problems, I wasn't able to update any second round tournament previews. Because of that, I'll be doing NIT coverage only from here on out.

Tournament South Region Breakdown

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Favorite:

Texas A&M might play the best defense in the tournament and that's saying something when UCLA, Florida, and Georgetown are also taking part in it. The Aggies also have one of the easier roads to the Final 4 if they can possibly get by Louisville in an away game atmosphere.

Sleeper:

Louisville, like I mentioned above, will have the great benefit of playing in Lexington for the first two rounds. It doesn't hurt to be as talented as they are either.

Major Sleeper:

Long Beach State won't fear anybody, particularly a Tennessee team that will attempt to run with them. That might be a mistake against one of the best up and down teams in the country. If Long Beach State were to get past the Vols, they would face another guard heavy team the 49ers could take advantage of.

Top Two Games:

#5 Tennessee vs #12 Long Beach State
#7 Nevada vs #10 Creighton

The Games:

#1 Ohio State vs #16 Central Connecticut State

Central Connecticut State has a really nice starting 5 for a 16 seed that they rely heavily on, but Ohio State's size in the paint will be far too much.

Ohio State 79 Central Connecticut State 59

#2 Memphis vs #15 North Texas

North Texas is a lot like Memphis in that they start a very big and athletic lineup, play at a fast tempo, and can't shoot free throws. Oh, but Memphis plays defense.

Memphis 83 North Texas 62

#3 Texas A&M vs #14 Pennsylvania

The Quakers have enough offense to make this a closer game for a half, but Texas A&M has far too many big men for Penn to handle. It doesn't help when you're 236th in the country in rebounding.

Texas A&M 71 Pennsylvania 55

#4 Virginia vs #13 Albany

I really think there's a good possibility for an upset here. Virginia is probably overseeded and doesn't have the inside game to make Albany pay for their smallish lineup. Albany comes close for a second straight year.

Virginia 73 Albany 69

#5 Tennessee vs #12 Long Beach State

The best thing Tennessee does - press to create turnovers and quicken the tempo - is the exact wrong thing to do against the 49ers. Not only will Long Beach State break that press, but they'll probably drain a three on the other end. Tennessee might not be able to exploit LBSU's small frontcourt either because they lack size of their own. In a guard heavy game, I'll take Long Beach State - Chris Lofton or not on the other side.

Long Beach State 84 Tennessee 82

#6 Louisville vs #11 Stanford

No matter what Pitino says, the home crowd in Lexington will be a factor. Stanford is getting a bad rep for barely sliding into the tournament, but they're actually playing pretty well recently - dropping a few really close games. Louisville has David Padgett they can match on to one of Stanford's 7 foot Lopez twins, but what happens if he gets in early foul trouble? I really can't wait to see how the Cardinals handle Stanford's huge frontcourt.

Louisville 75 Stanford 73

#7 Nevada vs #10 Creighton

Creighton doesn't have a lot of depth or scoring options, other than G Nate Funk or C Anthony Tolliver. The Blue Jays won't be able to defend Nick Fazekas as they don't have a big man athletic enough or used to covering so much area on the court. Nate Funk must have a big game for Creighton to win, but he's going to face a really good defensive guard from Nevada no matter who rotates on him.

Nevada 73 Creighton 66

#8 BYU vs #9 Xavier

Like their MWC partner UNLV, BYU got badly underseeded at 8. What more could they have done to pass teams like 7 seeds Indiana and Boston College? Well, their early season loss to Lamar was pretty bad. Still though, this Cougars team is really good and can cause trouble in the second round for Ohio State.

BYU 76 Xavier 71

Tournament East Region Breakdown

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Favorite:

Georgetown. Sensing a theme here? Lots of experience and tough as nails defense will get you in my favorite spot quicker than anything.

Sleeper:

Texas, led by what's his face Kevin something, has the talent to go toe to toe with North Carolina. Anybody else reminded of the 03 Syracuse team, except even better?

Major Sleeper:

You never know what you're going to get with Arkansas. I assume Arkansas fans wanted the Hogs to miss the tournament entirely so Coach Heath could be fired, but they're here now. There's really no excuse for them coming in as a 12 seed, probably the last team into the tournament, with all of their talent. They're either losing in the first round or going to the Elite 8.

Top Two Games:

#4 Texas vs #13 New Mexico State
#5 Southern Cal vs #12 Arkansas

The Games:

#1 North Carolina vs #16 Eastern Kentucky

Eastern Kentucky got here on a buzzer beater against Austin Peay in the OVC conference championship game. EKU hung well in the tournament a couple of years ago as a 15 seed against Kentucky, but UNC is far too talented to let the Colonels stay in this game.

North Carolina 85 Eastern Kentucky 59

#2 Georgetown vs #15 Belmont

Belmont has two huge bodies they can stick on Georgetown's Hibbert and Green, but they tire quickly and can get into foul trouble. The Bruins have a nice backcourt that could give Georgetown a few problems, but Hibbert should absolutely dominate in this game.

Georgetown 74 Belmont 51

#3 Washington State vs #14 Oral Roberts

Most people's 13+ seed upset pick for this season, Oral Roberts has one of the best big men in the country with Caleb Green who forms a really good inside-out tandem with guard Ken Tutt. They must get more scoring production from the other players on the court though- something they haven't done much of this year. ORU keeps it close, but doesn't have quite enough to pull the upset.

Washington State 64 Oral Roberts 57

#4 Texas vs #13 New Mexico State

Texas could actually find themselves in some trouble against the Aggies. NMSU's fast paced attack could give Texas's inconsistent defense some concern for a half, but the Aggies' shooting is too hot and cold for me to pick them to win. Though they can really hang with Texas on the glass, they're far too turnover prone and probably don't have the defensive stopper to contain Durant or Augustin.

Texas 84 New Mexico State 70

#5 Southern Cal vs #12 Arkansas

While Arkansas has the clear advantage with their fantastic frontcourt, USC holds the winning key with their backcourt. Any time a team has Gary Ervin running the point, can you really pick them wholeheartedly? I can't. Who knows which Arkansas team comes to play.

Southern Cal 73 Arkansas 64

#6 Vanderbilt vs #11 George Washington

Another trendy upset pick, but George Washington felt closer to a 13 seed than an 11 seed to me. George Washington, very athletic as always, runs into a team that can score and run with them. Shan Foster and Derrick Byars will be far too much for the Colonials to handle.

Vanderbilt 78 George Washington 69

#7 Boston College vs #10 Texas Tech

Boston College is limping into the tournament and seem ripe for an upset - particularly from a Bobby Knight coached tournament team. We'll forget about that blowout loss to Pepperdine in the first round when he was at Indiana though.

Texas Tech 71 Boston College 64

#8 Marquette vs #9 Michigan State

As most know by now, Marquette's second leading scorer Jerel McNeal is going to miss this game due to injury. Even with McNeal and all their other guards, they still didn't produce much offense. Michigan State can put the clamps down on defense which doesn't help matters.

Michigan State 64 Marquette 62

Tournament West Region Breakdown

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Favorite:

UCLA has the experience and tenacious defense to edge Kansas for my pick.

Sleeper:

Virginia Tech possesses the athleticism to possibly match up well against Southern Illinois in the second round or Kansas in the Sweet 16.

Major Sleeper:

Gonzaga, even without Heytvelt, can definitely beat Indiana's two man show of D.J. White and Roderick Wilmont. After that, they have the talented guard play to put a scare into UCLA. Their lack of a post presence won't hurt them as much should they get to that point with the Bruins lacking a true dominant post player as well.

Top Two Games:

#4 Southern Illinois vs #13 Holy Cross
#6 Duke vs #11 Virginia Commonwealth

The Games:

#1 Kansas vs #16 Niagara

Niagara probably wants to rethink getting in a running match with Kansas. The Purple Eagles have a lot of offense, but give it up just as quickly on the other end.

Kansas 87 Niagara 64

#2 UCLA vs #15 Weber State

Weber State is probably more suited for the play-in game instead of the 15 they garnered. This seeding was one of the strangest of the tournament. Not that the 15 seed helped matters much as they play one of the best teams in the country. UCLA, even perhaps without the services of the hobbled Collison, can handle the Wildcats.

UCLA 76 Weber State 51

#3 Pittsburgh vs #14 Wright State

Wright State doesn't have any single person that can effectively match up against Gray, but all it takes is one player to take over the game sometimes. And the Raiders have that with guard Dashaun Wood. Will he be enough against the stingy Pitt defense? Probably not, but I think this could be interesting late into the second half.

Pittsburgh 67 Wright State 59

#4 Southern Illinois vs #13 Holy Cross

Holy Cross is always so close to pulling a huge upset in the tournament but never quite gets there. If you play tough defense against Southern Illinois, which Holy Cross does, they can be beaten. In a game earlier this year against Bradley, SIU was befuddled against a simple zone and lost 48-46. Fortunately for the Crusaders, they didn't play some of the other 4 seeds like Texas or Maryland because they would get crushed on the glass. Now that they're matched up against SIU, they're the ones with the actual size advantage. Holy Cross pulls off the upset with their senior backcourt duo of Keith Simmons and Torey Thomas leading the way.

Holy Cross 57 Southern Illinois 55

#5 Virginia Tech vs #12 Illinois

Illinois may possibly be the ugliest team to watch in this tournament. They absolutely can not score and their defense won't be enough to save them in this game.

Virginia Tech 68 Illinois 58

#6 Duke vs #11 Virginia Commonwealth

One would think it's finally Duke's time to fail to get to the Sweet 16. Virginia Commonwealth's quick backcourt can cause some problems for the Blue Devils, but Duke's Josh McRoberts should be able to take advantage of VCU's smallish frontcourt. The Rams certainly won't beat themselves with mistakes as they're top 30 nationally in most ball control categories, but their defense is suspect and they may have a tough time on the boards with Duke. In any event, this should be a really close game.

Duke 69 Virginia Commonwealth 67

#7 Indiana vs #10 Gonzaga

I definitely think of Gonzaga as the favorite here. Indiana comes across the country after struggling for the last part of the season to play a team that overmatches them offensively. Indiana lacks a second option to D.J. White in the post and Gonzaga may not be able to exploit that weakness, but they do have a backcourt that will really challenge Indiana. The Hoosiers might not have enough scoring options to win this one.

Gonzaga 73 Indiana 69

#8 Kentucky vs #9 Villanova

So, a repeat of last year? Kentucky struggles to find any offense for most of the season, comes into the tournament as an 8 seed, most pick the Wildcats to get upset, and they then fall to one of the more talented #1 seeds in the second round. Watch as Kentucky's Bobby Perry gracefully goes for 20+ points. I believe Perry only comes out of hibernation for March.

Kentucky 68 Villanova 64

Tournament Midwest Region Breakdown

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Favorite:

Florida in a land slide.

Sleeper:

UNLV. Even though they are terribly underseeded at 7, they lucked out by facing the worst two seed in the tournament..or Texas A&M Corpus Christi, if they can get by Tech.

Major Sleeper:

Despite being very inconsistent in the regular season, Arizona has one of the best starting fives in the country. If they get past Purdue, depth could become an issue against the Gators, but there's no question they have the scoring punch to hang with Florida.

Top Two Games:

#6 Notre Dame vs #11 Winthrop
#7 UNLV vs #10 Georgia Tech

The Games:

#1 Florida vs #16 Jackson State

Jackson State is glad they finally have their best post player Jeremy Caldwell somewhat healthy after missing him on and off for the past month and some. That way he doesn't have to watch from the bench as Jackson State gets smoked by 20. For all the talk of Trey Johnson, he really didn't play that well down the stretch for the Tigers other than the SWAC tournament.

Florida 88 Jackson State 63

#2 Wisconsin vs #15 Texas A&M Corpus Christi

I so badly want to pick the Islanders here because I think Wisconsin's going out early in this tournament anyways. Texas A&M CC has the size to match the Badgers, particularly without Butch, and have the backcourt to complement it. This is going down to the buzzer.

Wisconsin 69 Texas A&M Corpus Christi 68

#3 Oregon vs #14 Miami ( OH )

Well, I'd certainly call this one a clash of styles. Miami wants to slow, slow, slow it down and Oregon wants to get out in transition. Like a few others, I have a funny feeling about this game. I don't think Oregon will necessarily control all of the game tempo which could mean this one goes down to the wire.

Oregon 72 Miami ( OH ) 65

#4 Maryland vs #13 Davidson

Davidson is about as talented as any mid major you can find this season. They've got depth, size, a good frontcourt and backcourt. In fact, to nobody's surprise, I think Davidson can certainly get to the Sweet 16. However, Maryland's experienced and athletic frontcourt could cause some problems for Davidson. The Wildcats can't let point guard Greivis Vasquez get going.

Maryland 76 Davidson 73

#5 Butler vs #12 Old Dominion

Old Dominion's stout defense and quality backcourt will give Butler fits. Butler has suffered cold shooting woes for over a month now and they're not facing a team that's likely to give them many open looks. They're going to have a wail of a time trying to guard ODU's PF Valdas Vasylius.

Old Dominion 66 Butler 61

#6 Notre Dame vs #11 Winthrop

Most everybody's darkhouse candidate, Winthrop, is going to have a really tough time trying to stop Notre Dame inside. Craig Bradshaw is their best interior player, but he's still far more of a face up shooter than a post up player. Winthrop has the most quality depth of any mid major this season, but it's going to be a challenge for them to matchup defensively with the Irish's Rob Kurz, Luke Harangody, and Zach Hillesland. If you zone to stop the entry passes, Notre Dame can shoot you to death from the perimeter. If Winthrop plays man to man, Notre Dame could feast on the inside. Even so, Winthrop has plenty of scoring options themselves on the other end and will keep this very close until the finish.

Notre Dame 79 Winthrop 75

#7 UNLV vs #10 Georgia Tech

UNLV's senior-laden team is ready to prove the committee wrong after being underseeded. I'll take UNLV's experience over Georgia Tech's freshmen led team. Whoever wins this is going to the Sweet 16 in my opinion. Wisconsin certainly wasn't done any favors as the 2 seed in this bracket.

UNLV 81 Georgia Tech 77

#8 Arizona vs #9 Purdue

It's amazing Purdue got a 9 seed. I guess their reward was playing one of the most talented teams in the country right off the bat and possibly getting a chance at THE most talented team in the country in the second round. They won't get that opportunity.

Arizona 79 Purdue 64

NIT East Region Second Round Breakdown

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#1 West Virginia vs #4 UMass

West Virginia blitzed Delaware State 74-50 on Tuesday night holding the Hornets to 36.7% shooting and zero free throw attempts. The only negative to come from that game was WVU allowing 10 offensive boards to Delaware State. That may not seem so bad, but we're talking about one of the smaller teams in the country. That's been the Mountaineers' problem all season - rebounding. In turn, they have problems with really solid frontcourts. Unfortunately for them, they're facing one of the biggest and baddest front lines in the country when they go up against Massachusetts. UMass took it to Alabama's big men with 10 blocked shots and 15 offensive boards and pulled out an 89-87 OT win. Stephane Lasme, Rashaun Freeman, and Gary Forbes should have a field day against the 'Neers.

UMass 77 West Virginia 72

#6 North Carolina State vs #7 Marist

Marist's win over Oklahoma State was a huge surprise to me. The Cowboys were in a freefall , but they were starting to play better in the last couple of weeks. That they held OSU to 64 points is particularly impressive considering they've had problems with their defense all season long. Marist's three point ace Will Whittington runs hot and cold and I think the Wolfpack do a much better job covering him up than Oklahoma State did. Jared Jordan's shooting stroke has gone awry as the season has gone on and he'll need to be dynamite against Atsur and co. for the Red Foxes to win. North Caorlina State looks like a team on a mission and I can't pick against them.

North Carolina State 70 Marist 60

NIT North Region Second Round Breakdown

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#1 Mississippi State vs #4 Bradley

Bradley is fresh off an OT win against Providence where they allowed the Friars' frontcourt to take control and that doesn't bode well for today's game. They gave up 28 points, 4 assists, 4 rebounts, and 4 steals to Jamont Gordon-like Providence "guard" Weyinmi Efejuku and had no answer for monster center Herbert Hill. Mississippi State also has the shooters from deep to really tear apart this Bradley defense. The Bulldogs move on to the quarterfinals.

Mississippi State 79 Bradley 70

#2 Florida State vs #3 Michigan

Florida State, my favorite to win the NIT, throttled a pretty solid Toledo team on Tuesday. Michigan is coming off an opening round win over Utah State where they had to pull away in the final minutes to win by 10. Both teams have big, athletic frontcourts, but you have to give the nod to Florida State whose Al Thornton put up 24 and 6 against Toledo. Michigan's defense is good enough to keep this close, but their lack of offensive punch will be their downfall once again.

Florida State 72 Michigan 61

NIT Bracket Predictions

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I meant to post these up yesterday afternoon for your viewing pleasure.

NIT West Region Breakdown

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#1 Air Force vs #8 Austin Peay

When I was talking about South Alabama being the coldest team coming into the NIT, well, scratch that. Air Force has lost 4 in a row including two must wins that would have probably gotten them into the tournament ( BYU at home, Wyoming in the MWC tourney ). They've been getting pounded on the boards, which isn't that unusual for them, but their shooting has really gone south. As has their defense. The Falcons have given up 50% FG% in three straight games. So they can't shoot it, can't rebound, and their defense has faltered. Thankfully for Air Force, Austin Peay doesn't rebound well, defend well, or shoot well either. Both of these teams slow the tempo down to a crawl which definitely plays into the hands of Air Force. Austin Peay won't be able to capitalize on their offensive possessions like the Falcons can if they're able to regain their three point shooting stroke.

Air Force 66 Austin Peay 54

#2 Kansas State vs #7 Vermont

Many thought Kansas State had a gripe after winning 10 games in the Big 12 and being left out of the tournament. However, only one of those ten wins was really impressive - their win at Texas. For a Big 12 team, one would think they could just outmuscle Vermont. The opposite should hold true - Vermont has the definitive advantage in the paint with forwards Chris Holm ( 10.6 ppg, 12.1 rpg ) and Martin Klimes ( 6.6 ppg, 4.6 rpg ). Kansas State has two huge freshmen big men in Luis Colon and Jason Bennett ( 7'3, 265 ), but they haven't been playing recently and are foul machines. Vermont also has the necessary prototypical 6'5/7 wings that can defend Cartier Martin ( 16.9 ppg, 4.4 rpg ) and David Hoskins ( 14.3 ppg, 6 rpg, 2.5 apg ). Vermont plays standout defense and can really push people, like Kansas State, around on the glass. The question may be if they can regain their shooting stroke after the debacle against Albany in the AEC championship game and how well freshman small forward Joe Trapani ( 11.7 ppg, 4.5 rpg ) plays, still recovering from an injury. I'm seeing a second 7 seed upset over a Big 12 team.

Vermont 70 Kansas State 65

#3 DePaul vs #6 Hofstra

DePaul was the last team out of my final NIT projections and they wind up getting a three seed. I have no problem with them getting in - but how did they manage to get a 3 seed? Over Ole Miss and Appalachian State for example? In any event, this should be an interesting contrast of styles. Even though Hofstra has one of the best backcourts in the country, they choose to slow the pace. As does DePaul. However, Hofstra, with all of those guards, has a difficult time rebounding or stopping a dominant low post man. The Blue Demons have one of the more talented young interior guys in the country with Wilson Chandler ( 14.2 ppg, 6.9 rpg, 1.4 bpg ) and will no doubt spend a large amount of time getting him the ball. Another disadvantage for Hofstra is even with their great guard play of Loren Stokes ( 20.9 ppg, 5.7 rpg, 3 apg ), Antoine Agudio ( 20 ppg, 4 rpg, 2.4 apg ), and Carlos Rivera ( 13.1 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 4 apg, they're still outmatched physically against DePaul. We'll see if DePaul guards Sammy Mejia ( 6'6, 195 ) and Draelon Burns ( 6'4, 220 ) can take advantage. When successful, and much of the time Hofstra is ( 9th in the country in 3PT FG%), they hit their threes. Much like the Air Force game I previewed, this should be similiar. In a slow it down style of play, Hofstra is much more likely to capitalize on their offensive possessions than DePaul is. It also helps that DePaul is one of the more poor 3 point shooting defensive teams in the Big East.

Hofstra 69 DePaul 65

#4 Georgia vs #5 Fresno State

Georgia, fresh off getting blown out against Florida in the SEC quarters, also lacks the services of second leading scorer Mike Mercer who's done for the season with an injury. Fresno State got upset in the WAC quarters against Boise State, but have been hot recently beating New Mexico State twice and Utah State once in their past seven games. Both teams like to push the tempo and can rebound the ball well, but the comparisons end there. Fresno State absolutely gets after it on defense ranking in the top 8 nationally in FG%, 2PT FG%, 3PT FG%, eFG%, and blocks per game. They'll face a tough challenge against a team that is very dangerous behind the arc and also possesses a matchup problem in forward/center Takais Brown ( 14.1 ppg, 5.8 rpg ). Fresno State has the length to guard him, but do they have the thickness ( Brown is a ripped 250 ) to stop him? The question that must be answered, and is pivotal to Fresno State winning, is pretty obvious. Can they shoot well? For much of the season, they've been horrid in most every offensive category. Georgia isn't exactly terrible defensively and I don't think Fresno State's great defense will overcome their tragic offense.

Georgia 66 Fresno State 60

NIT South Region Breakdown

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#1 Clemson vs #8 East Tennessee State

I'm not sure what to make of Clemson being a #1 seed. There are a few other teams I definitely would have seeded ahead of the Tigers. In any event, they should get a fairly good test from ETSU who fell on their own floor to Belmont in the A-Sun conference championship game. Neither team is considerably deep, but ETSU should put a considerably larger starting lineup on the court other than 6' A-Sun POY Courtney Pigram ( 17.8 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 3.7 apg ). That helped lead them to be the best rebounding team in the Atlantic Sun, and they're also a very stout defensive team ranking in the top 50 nationally in most defensive categories. Particularly impressive is their .86 points given up defensively per possession in conference play. Of course, none of that mattered in their blowout loss to Belmont to end the regular season where the Bruins absolutely blitzed them from behind the arc ( 14 - 29 ). Courtney Pigram aside, Clemson still holds a distinct advantage in the backcourt and has the inside muscle of James Mays and Trevor Booker to get ETSU's foul prone front court in trouble early.

Clemson 76 East Tennessee State 65

#2 Syracuse vs #7 South Alabama

Syracuse, like Drexel, felt like they deserved to be in the tournament and Jim Boeheim has been making the radio rounds since Sunday pleading his case. Who knows if Syracuse will even really come to play in the NIT. It all adds up to the Orange being ripe to getting knocked out early. Fortunately for them, South Alabama may be the coldest team coming into this tourney having lost four in a row after reeling off 13 straight wins. The Jaguars don't particularly do anything very well - they don't score easily, they don't rebound, they don't play particularly great defense. They went on that long winning streak with smoke and mirrors and an interesting full court press defense. All of this should be a testament to Coach John Pelphrey who engineered this pretty fantastic season if you consider they lost most of what they had off last year's tournament team. Syracuse is quite error prone and lacks a plethora of ball handlers so the Jaguar press might annoy them early on. However, if they're able, Syracuse has lots of big bodies to throw it to down low which is where they are far superior to South Alabama. Darryl Watkins ( 8.4 ppg, 7.4 rpg, 3.4 bpg ) and Terrence Roberts ( 8.8 ppg, 8.1 rpg, 1.4 bpg ) create a formidable low post team and even wing/leading scorer Demetris Nichols ( 19 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 1.5 spg ) is bigger than most of the Jaguars' interior players. This should translate into the Orange passing it over the USA press for easy buckets.

Syracuse 75 South Alabama 60

#3 Missouri State vs #6 San Diego State

Quite the disappointing year for the Missouri State Bears. After last season's controversy of being the highest rated RPI team to ever be left out of the tournament, this was supposed to be their season. It looked promising early on with a win over Wisconsin and a blowout victory over Santa Clara. Things took a nose dive from there and they've found themselves back in the NIT. Like another MVC team I previewed, Bradley, they're deadly from behind the arc with team leader and three point ace Blake Ahearn ( 47% 3PT FG, 93% FT ) leading the way. They're also very deliberate with the ball only having around 68 possessions per game. It helps when you're also top 20 nationally in assists/turnovers ratio. On the other hand, San Diego State loves to push the ball and can really beat you down in the paint with a pair of 6'10 fowards Mohamed Abukar ( 15.9 ppg, 5.8 rpg ) and Jerome Habel ( 11 ppg, 6.2 rpg ). Fortunately for the Aztecs, they have two guys that can get them the ball in last year's conference POY Brandon Heath ( 19.2 ppg, 4 rpg, 3.6 apg ) and petite 5'9, 158 PG Richie Williams ( 7.2 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 4.6 apg ). It'll be interesting to see if Missouri State can find anybody to match up against SDSU's size and if they can also impose their slowed tempo on the Aztecs. It could be a long night for the Bears if they get in a running match. San Diego State hasn't played well on the road and, like Bradley's game, I think home court advantage will be a big factor in this one.

Missouri State 71 San Diego State 66

#4 Ole Miss vs #5 Appalachian State

In my mind, this is the most interesting game of the first round. Andy Kennedy deserves every bit of his SEC Coach of the Year recognitions after taking a team that was taught a "sludge" basketball philosophy under ex-coach Rod Barnes and making them an up tempo offensive minded club. Both of these teams run up and down the court and can scorch the nets. Appalachian State may actually have more depth than the Rebels, but Ole Miss does go deeper in their frontcourt which could be key in an up and down game like this one should be. Ole Miss' main big man Dwayne Curtis ( 12 ppg, 8.3 rpg ) is hobbled by an injury which could really open up the interior for Virginia transfer and current Mountaineer Donte Minter ( 11.4 ppg, 5 rpg ) or Jeremy Clayton ( 10.2 ppg, 7.1 rpg ). Both teams have very solid senior point guards in Ole Miss' Todd Abernethy ( 10.8 ppg, 3 rpg, 5.6 apg ) and App State's D.J. Thompson ( 15.5 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 5 apg, 2.5 spg ) combined with a host of other guards that can bomb from deep. Since these veteran teams are so evenly matched, you can almost flip a coin. Ole Miss has lost at home only once this season and that was to Kentucky on the first weekend of SEC play. Home court advantage could be key yet again.

Ole Miss 78 Appalachian State 76

NIT East Region Breakdown

For all NIT related coverage, click here.

#1 West Virginia vs #8 Delaware State

You have to feel bad for Delaware State. They've absolutely dominated the MEAC two years in a row and lost a heartbreaker in the conference championship both years . After this year though, the Hornets lose just about every player to graduation, including two time MEAC POY Jahsha Bluntt. They're known for their very stingy defense and slow tempo. On the other side, Coach Beilein has to be praised for his work getting West Virginia this far. After being picked to finish last in the Big East, it's amazing they were even in contention for a tournament berth. Both of these teams lack a true back to the basket post player and can shoot the three. This should be a closely contested defensive battle. Delaware State must defend the arc and make every offensive possession count ( 334 out of 336 teams in offensive possessions per game ). Unfortunately for Delaware State, West Virginia runs a unique offense that is very hard to prepare for in a matter of two days. Then there's that home court advantage thing..

West Virginia 64 Delaware State 51

#2 Oklahoma State vs #7 Marist

Like Florida State, the Cowboys were another team that were thought to have locked up a tournament bid earlier in the season. Having completely fallen apart during the past couple of months, they should be happy to get this high of a seed in the NIT much less make the tournament. Marist's defense should also clear up any problems OSU was having offensively. Marist can certainly hang with Oklahoma State in the scoring column with their two-headed guard duo that consists of one of the best PG in the nation Jared Jordan ( 17.6 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 8.8 apg ) and three point shooter Will Whittington ( 17.1 ppg. 40% from 3 ) . The Red Foxes' ultimate demise, like it has been most of the season, will be their defense. There's no way in my mind they can stop Mario Boggan or JamesOn Curry.

Oklahoma State 84 Marist 76

#3 Drexel vs #6 North Carolina State

Drexel definitely has a valid complaint after being left out of the tourney. They have even more of a complaint after being seeded 3rd in the NIT. That's not even to mention they then have to play one of the hottest teams coming into this tournament. It appears as if the Dragons got screwed in every way. Since Engin Atsur has returned for the Wolfpack, they've beaten Virginia Tech three times, UNC once, Virginia once, and Duke once. Having played four games in four days in the ACC tournament and with Atsur's hamstring becoming an issue again, it'll be interesting to see how they play against a rested and angry Drexel team. The Dragons have two huge bodies in the paint with Chaz Crawford ( 6.8 ppg, 9.3 rpg, 3.3 bpg ) and Frank Elegar ( 16 ppg, 6.9 rpg ) that could wear North Carolina State down. Though those two could pose matchup problems for North Carolina State, the Wolfpack can provide matchup problems of their own. Every single player NCSU uses is over 6'4 and Drexel lacks the necessary wings to really match up defensively with players like Gavin Grant, Courtney Fells, and Brandon Costner who routinely drifts behind the arc. I'll take a team that's playing very well together and will be playing loose after their fairly amazing run in the ACC tourney over a team whose coach has been whining since Selection Sunday ( though he does have a beef ).

North Carolina State 69 Drexel 66

#4 UMass vs #5 Alabama

Alabama is beat up, plays lethargic, lacks any kind of post or transition defense, can't win on the road, makes the UCLA high post offense look like a joke, and is just a really dumb basketball team in general. That doesn't exactly spark confidence in me when you look at UMass' low post duo of Rashaun Freeman ( 15.2 ppg, 8.3 rpg ) and Stephane Lasme ( 13.3 ppg, 9.5 rpg, 5 bpg ) and how they will likely tear apart Alabama's interior defense. Alabama's Richard Hendrix can't play more than three minutes without being gassed which in turn means he's late on any kind of transition play and Jermareo Davidson doesn't know the meaning of help defense or stepping up in the lane. That's not even mentioning the Minutemen's Gary Forbes, who at 6'7 stepping out behind the three point line, will be a huge matchup problem for Alabama. Alonzo Gee or Mykal Riley will likely match up against him and both are terrible defending the arc. It appeared as if Alabama was done with this season after their blowout home loss to Auburn and there's no reason to think they're going to change their poor ways in the 32nd game. I can definitely see this one being a blowout. Atleast "defensive guru" Tom Asbury will likely be stepping down as an assistant coach after the season ( after this game I should say ).

UMass 81 Alabama 68

NIT North Region Breakdown

For all NIT related coverage, click here.

#1 Mississippi State vs #8 Mississippi Valley State

Talk about a mismatch. Mississippi State, though young, is very deep and arguably one of the more talented SEC teams. MVSU, on the other hand, does nothing particularly well offensively as evidenced by them ranking 260th or lower in every major offensive category. Even though their defensive statistics are very impressive, it's largely due to them playing 18 games against the worst shooting conference in the country - also known as the SWAC. The Delta Devils don't have enough bodies to stop all of the offensive firepower of MSU. Do it all "point-forward/linebacker" Jamont Gordon ( 16 ppg, 7.2 rpg, 4.9 apg, 1.3 spg ) for the Bulldogs should really go off.

Mississippi State 80 Mississippi Valley State 58

#2 Florida State vs #7 Toledo

Florida State thought they had a tournament berth locked up after their February 4th win at Duke. Three point specialist and starting 2 guard Toney Douglas then proceeded to go down with a hand injury which resulted in four losses in five games. Douglas returned and helped lead them to an improbable comeback OT win at Miami and a key victory against Clemson. Though that wasn't enough to secure a tournament bid, they're still a very dangerous team that could reach the NIT Finals. They shouldn't sleep on Toledo though. They're a senior led, guard heavy team that has hung very well with some really good teams earlier in the season ( 5 point L at Drexel, 5 point OT L at Vanderbilt, 10 point L at Kansas, 3 point L vs Old Dominion ). The difference should be All-American Al Thornton. The Rockets really don't have anybody that can guard him.

Florida State 71 Toledo 63

#3 Michigan vs #6 Utah State

It's becoming pretty routine for Michigan to end up in the NIT having appeared in three of the last four. Utah State came within a desperation three at the buzzer of beating New Mexico State and heading to their third straight tournament appearance. The Aggies certainly won't be fearful of playing at Michigan with all but one of their key players having tournament experience. Utah State isn't a deep team going with only 7 players usually, but those 7 are quite talented. The question that must be answered though is how will they stop Courtney Sims and Brent Petway for Michigan on the interior? USU has some bulk, but do they have enough to beat a Michigan team whose starting lineup averages about 6'6 tall away from Logan, Utah? I think they do. Junior guard Jaycee Carroll ( 21.3 ppg, 6.8 rpg, 1.8 apg ) will be the difference in the first upset of the NIT.

Utah State 63 Michigan 61

#4 Bradley vs #5 Providence

Bradley suffered a heart-breaking loss in the MVC semifinals to Southern Illinois and now find themselves in another tough matchup against Providence. The Friars are the mirror opposite of Bradley in their team strength with their huge low post duo of Herbert Hill ( 18 ppg, 8.7 rpg, 3 bpg ) and Geoff McDermott ( 9.7 ppg, 9.2 rpg, 5.3 apg ) while the Braves absolutely bomb away from deep. In fact, they lead the country in 3PT FG% at 42.8% with guard Jeremy Crouch shooting an incredible 51% from downtown. Really, the only person Bradley puts on the court who doesn't shoot 3s is their big man Zach Andrews ( 11.1 ppg, 6.9 rpg ). As he's their only true low post player, he's going to have to avoid foul trouble for Bradley to be in good shape. Unfortunately for the Braves, staying out of foul trouble isn't exactly something he's keen on doing with him having fouled out of 9 games so far this season. The Braves do have something going for them though, and that's Providence being a fairly poor 3 point defending team ( 176th in the country which ranks them 12th in the Big East ). That will be the difference in a close back and forth game. Unlike most other arenas come NIT time, I think Bradley fans will really come out and support their team tomorrow night which is another huge boost.

Bradley 68 Providence 64

Play-in Game ( Florida A&M vs Niagara ) Breakdown

For all tournament related coverage, click here.

Niagara

Best Player: G/F Charron Fisher leads the way with his 21 ppg and 8.1 rpg. While he was suspended for the first 8 games of the year for fighting in August, the Purple Eagles went 2-6.

Overview: As mentioned before, Niagara got off to a rough start without Fisher, but have been hot down the stretch winning 13 of their last 14 and 11 straight. They start and play all guards/small forwards which could give some bigger teams, like Kansas, matchup problems. Even with their small lineup, Niagara rebounds very well. They're top 35 in the country in RPG, D-REB%, and REB% along with first in their conference in all three. The Purple Eagles play a very up and down, fast paced tempo which leads to many transition points for the opposing team. They need to lock their defense down to avoid the earliest exit of them all.

Florida A&M

Best Player: F Rome Sanders ( 15.3 ppg, 5.9 rpg ) will pose problems for Niagara on the interior with his size. He's an adept scorer ( 65% FG%, 76% FT% ) having scored 20+ points ten times this season.

Overview: Like Niagara, other than Sanders and Alabama transfer Akini Adkins ( who plays very little ), they play all small forwards and guards who can really rebound the ball. That also translates into a more uptempo style that isn't exactly commonplace in the MEAC. Unlike the Purple Eagles, they actually play defense leading the MEAC in FG% defense and most key rebounding categories.

Prediction:

Niagara 80 Florida A&M 75

While many thought Florida A&M would wind up in the play-in game after their buzzer beater win in the MEAC championship over Delaware State, it was a shock that Niagara could even wind up being a 16 seed - much less actually facing Florida A&M on Tuesday. If the Rattlers can defend the perimeter well, something they aren't very good at doing, or Niagara goes cold from behind the arc, Florida A&M has a good shot. They have a huge advantage in the paint with Rome Sanders and Niagara must find a way to neutralize him.

Tournament Coverage

• Play-in Game Breakdown

• Midwest Region First Round Breakdown

• West Region First Round Breakdown

• East Region First Round Breakdown

• South Region First Round Breakdown

• Season capsule and grades for losing teams

NIT Coverage

• NIT North Region First Round Breakdown

• NIT East Region First Round Breakdown

• NIT South Region First Round Breakdown

• NIT West Region First Round Breakdown

• NIT North Region Second Round Breakdown

• NIT East Region Second Round Breakdown

• NIT South Region Second Round Breakdown

• NIT West Region Second Round Breakdown

• NIT North Region Finals Breakdown
  

• NIT East Region Finals Breakdown
  

• NIT South Region Finals Breakdown

• NIT West Region Finals Breakdown
  

• NIT Final Four Breakdown
  

• Season capsule and grades for losing teams

Tournament Coverage This Week

Tuesday

• Opening round play-in game previewed

• First round of the NIT previewed and examined

• Predictions all the way through the NIT championship
  

Wednesday

• First round of the tournament previewed and examined

• Predictions all the way through the national championship
  

My projection results and what's coming up in the next few days..

Tourney

63/65 teams picked correctly ( Air Force and Syracuse instead of Purdue and Arkansas )
28 teams seeded correctly
50 teams picked within one seed

NIT

30/32 teams picked correctly ( Akron and Washington instead of Fresno State and DePaul )
11 teams seeded correctly
26 teams picked within one seed

Overall, I wasn't totally thrilled with how everything came out. I really considered sticking Arkansas in at the last minute to replace Syracuse and I'm shocked Akron was left out of the NIT for Fresno State. Washington too. The late switching around I did in my tournament projections cost me seeding wise.

I'll have game by game breakdowns and predictions for each of the NIT and tourney games in the next few days though. Stay tuned.

NCAA Tourney and NIT Final Bracket Projections ( March 11th )

My apologies for the short leave.





Click on the images for an enlarged view.


Tourney

Last Five In: Air Force, Syracuse, Old Dominion, Stanford, Illinois

Last Five Out: Purdue, Kansas State, Drexel, Florida State, Arkansas

NIT

Last Five In: Providence, Hofstra, North Carolina State, San Diego State, Akron

Last Five Out: LSU, Bucknell, Iowa, Missouri, DePaul

Short hiatus

I'll be back on Sunday with my final bracket projections and full tourney/NIT previews once the brackets are released. Enjoy the basketball this weekend!

Conference Tourney Predictions ( 3/7 )

Results as of today:

87 - 36 ( 6 out of 11 conference champions picked correctly )

So, pretty average thus far.

NCAA Tourney and NIT Bracket Projections ( March 6th )

Click on the images for enlarged views.

Tourney

Last Five In: Illinois, Drexel, Old Dominion, Missouri State, Syracuse

Last Five Out: Florida State, Purdue, West Virginia, Kansas State, Clemson

Clinched: Pennsylvania, Winthrop, Belmont, Davidson, Eastern Kentucky, Creighton, Niagara, Virginia Commonwealth, Gonzaga

NIT

Last Five In: Santa Clara, LSU, Auburn, Utah State, New Mexico State

Last Five Out: Bucknell, Dayton, Northern Iowa, Kent State, Fresno State/Connecticut

Clinched: Marist, Austin Peay, South Alabama, Toledo, East Tennessee State

MEAC, Mountain West, and WAC Conference Tourney Predictions

I wanted to go ahead and put my predictions down for tonight's games in case I don't get to put them in jpeg format before tip offs. I'll also be putting up the A-10 and Big East conference tourney predictions among others by tomorrow morning.

MEAC
#7 Hampton over #10 Howard
#9 Bethune-Cookman over #8 Coppin State

MWC
#9 New Mexico over #8 TCU

WAC
#8 San Jose State over #9 Idaho

Coming tomorrow..

Network problems have prevented me from posting the updated tourney projections. Really, it was just moving Delaware State up to Western Kentucky's 15 seed line and North Texas into Delaware State's 16 seed spot against UNC. I should have it up by tomorrow morning.

I'll also have the MEAC, MWC, and WAC conference tourney predictions up as well.

NCAA Tourney and NIT Bracket Projections ( March 5th )

Click on the images for enlarged views.

Tourney

Last Five In: Illinois, Drexel, Old Dominion, Missouri State, Syracuse

Last Five Out: Florida State, Purdue, West Virginia, Kansas State, Clemson

Clinched: Pennsylvania, Winthrop, Belmont, Davidson, Eastern Kentucky, Creighton

NIT

Last Five In: Santa Clara, LSU, Auburn, Utah State, New Mexico State

Last Five Out: Bucknell, Dayton, Northern Iowa, Kent State, Fresno State/Connecticut

Clinched: Marist, Austin Peay, South Alabama, Toledo, East Tennessee State

NCAA Tourney and NIT Bracket Projections ( March 2nd )

Click on the image for an enlarged view. NIT bracket will be up Saturday night.


Tourney

Last Five In: Georgia Tech, Texas Tech, Drexel, Illinois, Old Dominion

Last Five Out: Oklahoma State, West Virginia, Purdue, Florida State, Alabama

Big East ( 7): Pittsburgh, Marquette, Louisville, Georgetown, Notre Dame, Villanova, Syracuse
ACC ( 6 ): North Carolina, Virginia Tech, Virginia, Boston College, Duke, Georgia Tech
Pac-10 ( 6 ): UCLA, Washington State, Arizona, Oregon, Stanford, Southern Cal
Big Ten ( 5 ): Wisconsin, Ohio State, Indiana, Illinois, Michigan State
Big 12 ( 4 ): Kansas, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech
SEC ( 4 ): Florida, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Tennessee
MVC ( 3 ): Southern Illinois, Creighton, Missouri State
MWC ( 3 ): Air Force, UNLV, BYU
CAA ( 3 ): Virginia Commonwealth, Old Dominion, Drexel
Horizon ( 2 ): Butler, Wright State

Clinched: Pennsylvania

America East, Big Sky, Colonial, MAAC, Mid-Con, and WCC Conference Tourney Predictions

I'll also have a tourney and NIT bracket projection update Friday evening.

The Bubble Rundown ( Feb 28th )

I've broken the "on the fence" teams down into four different tiers. My predictions are what I think happens come tournament selection time - not as things stand today.

These are my locks and automatic bids:

LOCKS ( 32 ) - North Carolina, Virginia Tech, Virginia, Maryland, Duke, Boston College, Kansas, Texas, Texas A&M, Pittsburgh, Georgetown, Louisville, Notre Dame, Marquette, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Indiana, Memphis, Butler, Southern Illinois, BYU, UNLV, Air Force, UCLA, Washington State, USC, Oregon, Arizona, Florida, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Nevada

AUTO ( 21 ) - ( as things stand now ) Vermont, Xavier, ETSU, Winthrop, Weber State, Long Beach State, VCU, Wright State, Pennsylvania, Marist, Oral Roberts, Akron, Delaware State, CCSU, Austin Peay, Holy Cross, Davidson, Sam Houston State, Mississippi Valley State, South Alabama, Gonzaga

This leaves 12 spots for 36 bubble teams.

Tier 1 ( Almost Clinched ):

#1. Stanford ( 44 RPI /18 SOS ):
Remaining Games: Arizona State/Arizona

Stanford has all but clinched a spot, but obviously can't slip up against an Arizona State team that's playing very well down the stretch.

My prediction: Arizona State ( W ), Arizona ( W ) 19-10 ( 11 - 7 )
IN

#2. Kentucky ( 11 RPI / 2 SOS)
Remaining Games: Georgia/at Florida

Kentucky has all the computer numbers, but they aren't playing well at all and lack a marquee win. If they end up getting swept by Georgia, it's probably really time to panic.

My prediction: Georgia ( W ), at Florida ( L ) 20-10 ( 9 - 7 )
IN

#3. Creighton ( 29 RPI / 28 SOS )
Remaining Games: MVC tournament

Another team that's not playing good basketball down the stretch. They're still pretty much guaranteed to get in due to finishing 2nd in the 6th rated conference in the RPI. That's especially true with such a weak bubble team field this year. Get by the quarterfinals in the MVC tourney and they're in with no questions asked.

My prediction: Regular season over
IN

#4. Villanova ( 21 RPI / 7 SOS )
Remaining Games: at Connecticut/Syracuse

Good computer numbers and several really good wins ( at Georgetown, Notre Dame, Texas, Louisville ) means they're all but in unless they drop their final two.

My prediction: at Connecticut ( W ), Syracuse ( W ) 20-9 ( 9 - 7 )
IN

#5. Syracuse ( 48 RPI / 51 SOS )
Remaining Games: at Villanova

The Orange seem to have clinched a tournament birth with their win over Georgetown and would get in for sure if they can steal a win at Nova. Even if they don't get that, they're still probably safe with 10 Big East wins. They probably want to win a game in the Big East tournament for good measure though.

My prediction: at Villanova ( L ) 21 - 9 ( 10 - 6 )
IN

#6. Michigan State ( 22 RPI / 13 SOS )
Remaining Games: at Wisconsin

Michigan State got two huge wins last week against Wisconsin and Indiana. Dropped a tough road game to Michigan last night, but that still didn't hurt their profile that much considering they have no bad losses and several really quality wins. They'll get their final chance at a marquee road win against the Badgers to end the regular season. Of course, if they were to take that one it'd jump them to lock status.

My prediction: at Wisconsin ( L ) 21-10 ( 8 - 8 )
IN

#7. Missouri State ( 36 RPI / 44 SOS )
Remaining Games: MVC tournament

They did well to get a road win over struggling Wichita State and are probably in the same boat as Creighton - with such a weak bubble field, they probably won't be left out of the tournament after finishing 3rd in the MVC. The Bears probably don't want to risk being one and done in the MVC tourney though after what happened last year. I think if they get their quarterfinal win against Wichita State, they're safe.

My prediction: Regular season over
IN

#8. Old Dominion ( 34 RPI / 93 SOS )
Remaining Games: CAA tournament

Not many teams are playing as well as the Monarchs are these past few months. They're on an 11 game winning streak which includes good wins at Toledo and Drexel along with home wins over Hofstra and VCU. They probably need to get into the finals of the CAA tournament to feel really safe. There would be no shame in losing the championship to VCU on VCU's home floor. Their Georgetown win is also looking better and better.

My prediction: Regular season over
IN

Second Tier ( Work to do ):

#1. Illinois ( 31 RPI / 25 SOS )
Remaining Games: at Iowa

Illinois doesn't have a single good win away from home unless you count their Mizzou and Bradley wins that were played a few miles down the road. They need to beat Iowa to finish out the regular season heading into the Big Ten tourney.

My prediction: at Iowa ( L ) 21 - 10 ( 9 - 7 )
OUT

#2. Texas Tech ( 47 RPI / 14 SOS )
Remaining Games: Baylor/ at Iowa State

Not many teams have three wins like Texas Tech does over Kansas once and Texas A&M twice. They've got two easier games left before the Big 12 tournament and must win both.

My prediction: Baylor ( W ), at Iowa State ( W ) 20-11 ( 9 - 7 )
IN

#3. Oklahoma State ( 41 RPI/ 31 SOS )
Remaining Games: at Baylor/ at Nebraska

The Cowboys picked up a must win at home over Kansas State and need to win out in the regular season to have a chance to go dancing - particularly since they're still 0-fer on the road in the Big 12. I really think they're starting to turn it around and can get it done.

My prediction: at Baylor ( W ), at Nebraska ( W ) 21-9 ( 8 - 8 )
IN

#4. Winthrop ( 68 RPI/ 249 SOS )
Remaining Games: Big South tournament

I have them in as my automatic bid, but if they fall in the Big South championship to High Point I still think they'd have to get in. As much as their four non div-1 games have been talked about, it's not their fault they can't get anybody to play them at home. Also, let us not forget their road wins over ODU and Mississippi State.

My prediction: Regular season over
IN ( Auto bid, but if need be at large )

#5. West Virginia ( 55 RPI / 95 SOS )
Remaining Games: Cincinnati

Two good wins for the entire year and nary a decent road win. They need to win a few in the Big East tournament.

My prediction: Cincinnati ( W ) 20-8 ( 9 - 7 )
OUT

#6. Florida State ( 49 RPI/ 16 SOS )
Remaining Games: at Miami

Lots of good wins but have really faltered down the stretch with Douglas hurt. Thankfully for the 'Noles, they're getting him back in time for ACC tournament play. We'll see if that ends up being enough. Need at least one, perhaps two wins in the ACC tourney.

My prediction: at Miami ( W ) 19 - 11 ( 7 - 9 )
IN

#7. Georgia Tech ( 52 RPI / 37 SOS )
Remaining Games: North Carolina/ Boston College

Well, they certainly have their shot this week to prove they belong in the tournament. They almost pulled one out at Virginia which might have lifted them to the almost in category but faltered down the stretch. A win over UNC would likely put them over the top.

My prediction: North Carolina ( L ), Boston College ( W ) 19 - 11 ( 7 - 9 )
OUT

#8. Purdue ( 40 RPI / 33 SOS )
Remaining Games: Minnesota/ Northwestern

There's no more opportunities in the regular season to impress so they're going to have to get busy in the Big Ten tournament. A lack of any good road wins and a few really bad losses ( at Minnesota and Indiana State ) will prove to be costly.

My prediction: Minnesota ( W), Northwestern ( W ) 20-10 ( 9 - 7 )
OUT

#9. Alabama ( 45 RPI/ 53 SOS )
Remaining Games: Ole Miss/ at Mississippi State

Mark Gottfried coached teams play their best when backed into a corner and all is lost, and, truthfully, I wouldn't be surprised if they somehow won out in the regular season. Even if they did happen to make that happen, I'm not sure it'd be enough. They need to atleast get past the SEC tournament quarterfinals.

My prediction Ole Miss ( W ), Mississippi State ( L ) 20-10 ( 7 - 9 )
OUT

#10. Georgia ( 53 RPI/ 20 SOS )
Remaining Games: at Kentucky/ Tennessee

Like Georgia Tech, this is a make or break week for the Bulldogs. It'd be huge for them to get a win at Rupp over the struggling Wildcats and the Tennessee game at home is very winnable. Win both and they're in. Split and win one SEC tourney game and they'll have to sweat it.

My prediction: at Kentucky ( L ), Tennessee ( W ) 17-11 ( 9 - 7 )
OUT

#11. Drexel ( 42 RPI/ 100 SOS )
Remaining Games: CAA tournament

One of the best road teams in the country with wins over Villanova, Syracuse, Creighton, Vermont, and Hofstra away from home. The Dragons need to atleast get into the semifinals of the CAA tourney to be safe.

My prediction: Regular season over
IN

#12. Kansas State ( 58 RPI/ 89 SOS )
Remaining Games: Oklahoma

Ten wins in the Big 12 would usually get you in with no questions asked, but with how average the league is this year in the middle and towards the bottom that might not be the case. A lack of good wins unless they can get hot in the Big 12 tourney will keep them out.

My prediction: Oklahoma ( W ) 21-10 ( 10 - 6 )
OUT

#13. Clemson ( 43 RPI/ 39 SOS )
Remaining Games: Miami/ at Virginia Tech

Talk about a team fading. They've got to beat Virginia Tech to get back into consideration and a few wins in the ACC tourney wouldn't hurt either.

My prediction: Miami ( W ), at Virginia Tech ( L ) 20-10 ( 6 - 10 )
OUT

#14. Xavier ( 35 RPI/ 85 SOS )
Remaining Games: St. Joseph's/ at La Salle

Xavier has put themselves into pretty decent position to garner an at large bid if they can win their next two and get to the A-10 finals.

My prediction: St. Joseph's ( W ), at La Salle ( W ) 23-7 ( 13 - 3 )
IN ( auto ), IN ( otherwise )

Tier 3 ( A prayer ):

#1. Appalachian State ( 56/ 157 SOS )
Remaining Games: Southern tournament

Lots of good wins, but two sub 200 losses really hurt. Need to win the Southern tourney.

My prediction: Regular season over
OUT

#2. Bradley ( 46 RPI/ 27 SOS )
Remaining Games: MVC tournament

Good computer numbers and some really nice wins, but NIU loss at home probably killed their at large hopes. Need to get to the MVC finals.

My prediction:
OUT

#3. Ole Miss ( 61 RPI/ 74 SOS )
Remaining Games: at Alabama/ Auburn

Nary a good road or neutral site wins means no tournament bid unless they can get a win at Alabama and get into the SEC semis. As you'll see later, this will become a theme.

My prediction: at Alabama ( L ), Auburn ( W ) 19-11 ( 8 - 8 )
OUT

#4. Gonzaga ( 69 RPI/ 91 SOS )
Remaining Games: WCC tournament

Lots of good wins with Heytvelt, but since they're going to be judged on being without him I don't think they'll get in without the auto bid. They might have somewhat of a case if they lose to Santa Clara in the finals

My prediction: Regular season over
IN ( auto ) OUT ( otherwise )

#5. Michigan ( 50 RPI/ 50 SOS )
Remaining Games: Ohio State

It's pretty simple. They beat Ohio State and they're probably in. If not, it's another NIT season.

My prediction: Ohio State ( L ) 20-11 ( 8 - 8 )
OUT

#6. VCU ( 59 RPI/ 138 SOS )
Remaining Games: CAA tournament

You may ask how I could leave the CAA champion out when I have ODU and Drexel in. Well, VCU doesn't even come close to matching their OOC wins and their overall computer profile is quite weak. The committee won't be impressed if they drop a game in the CAA tourney on their own floor.

My prediction:
IN ( auto ) OUT ( otherwise )

#7. Providence ( 71 RPI/ 40 SOS )
Remaining Games: at South Florida/ at St. John's

Dropped a key home game against Syracuse which might have burst their bubble. Need to finish the regular season out strong and go deep in the Big East tourney.

My prediction: at South Florida ( W ), at St. John's ( W ) 19-10 ( 9 - 7 )
OUT

#8. UMass ( 57 RPI/ 125 SOS )
Remaining Games: La Salle/ at St. Joseph's

Need to atleast win out and then get to the A-10 tourney final to be considered. Probably needs to get the auto bid at this point.

My prediction: La Salle ( W ), at St. Joseph's ( W ) 23-7 ( 11 - 3 )
OUT

Tier 4 ( So you're saying there's a chance ):

#1. San Diego State ( 54 RPI/ 68 SOS )
Remaining Games: TCU

Their road loss to Utah probably did their at large chances in. The only option now seems to be winning the MWC tournament.

My prediction: TCU ( W ) 19 - 9 ( 10 - 6 )
OUT

#2. Arkansas ( 63 RPI/ 12 SOS )
Remaining Games: Mississippi State/ at Vanderbilt

There's too much talent on this team for potentially 15 losses. Like Mississippi State below, they need to win out and advance into the SEC semifinals to get a sniff from the committee. My guess is Stan Heath is fired after the year concludes.

My prediction: Mississippi State ( W ), at Vanderbilt ( L ) 17-13 ( 6 - 10 )
OUT

#3. Mississippi State ( 65 RPI/ 42 SOS )
Remaining Games: at Arkansas/ Alabama

The Bulldogs need to take the SEC West title and advance into the SEC semifinals. I don't think either will happen.

My prediction: at Arkansas ( L ), Alabama ( W ) 17-12 ( 8 - 8 )
OUT

#4. DePaul ( 60 RPI/ 19 SOS )
Remaining Games: South Florida

They've gotten a couple good wins over Notre Dame and Marquette recently and can hang their hat on the Kansas win, but early season losses to Northwestern, UAB, and St. John's will be their undoing. They probably need to atleast make it to the Big East conference championship to be put under real consideration. Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised to see that happen either with how well they're playing.

My prediction: South Florida ( W ) 17-12 ( 9 - 7 )
OUT

#5. Davidson ( 62 RPI/ 206 SOS )
Remaining Games: Southern tournament

They breezed through Southern Conference play and have no bad losses, but don't particularly have any good wins either. They really need to win the Southern tournament to be safe.

My prediction: Regular season over
IN ( Auto ) OUT ( otherwise )

#6. Hofstra ( 67 RPI/ 144 SOS )
Remaining Games: CAA tournament

Truthfully, their only chance now is to win the CAA tourney.

My prediction: Regular season over
OUT

Atlantic Sun, Missouri Valley, and Northeast Conference Tourney Predictions

NCAA Tourney and NIT Bracket Projections ( Feb 28th )

Click on the images for enlarged views.


Tourney

Last Five In: Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, Drexel, Illinois, Old Dominion

Last Five Out: Georgia Tech, West Virginia, Purdue, Florida State, Alabama

Big East ( 7): Pittsburgh, Marquette, Louisville, Georgetown, Notre Dame, Villanova, Syracuse

ACC ( 6 ): North Carolina, Virginia Tech, Virginia, Boston College, Duke, Maryland
Pac-10 ( 6 ): UCLA, Washington State, Arizona, Oregon, Stanford, Southern Cal
Big Ten ( 5 ): Wisconsin, Ohio State, Indiana, Illinois, Michigan State
Big 12 ( 5 ): Kansas, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State
SEC ( 4 ): Florida, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Tennessee
MVC ( 3 ): Southern Illinois, Creighton, Missouri State
MWC ( 3 ): Air Force, UNLV, BYU
CAA ( 3 ): Virginia Commonwealth, Old Dominion, Drexel
Horizon ( 2 ): Butler, Wright State


NIT

Last Five In: South Carolina, Santa Clara, Bucknell, St. Louis, North Carolina State

Last Five Out: Auburn, Kent State, Wichita State, Nebraska, Oklahoma


SEC ( 7 ): Alabama, Georgia, Arkansas, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, South Carolina, LSU
ACC ( 4 ): Georgia Tech, Florida State, Clemson, North Carolina State
Big East ( 3) : West Virginia, Providence, DePaul
Big Ten ( 3 ): Purdue, Michigan, Iowa
A-10 ( 2 ): UMass, St. Louis
Big 12 ( 2 ): Kansas State, Missouri
MVC ( 2 ): Bradley, Northern Iowa
Pac-Ten ( 2 ): Washington, Cal
WAC ( 2 ): Utah State, New Mexico State

It's pretty unbelievable that the SEC could have every team make the postseason in some form. Has a conference ever had that happen before?