The Backboard

NIT Final Four Breakdown

2007-03-27T17:31:00.000-05:00

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#1 West Virginia vs #1 Mississippi State

One of these days West Virginia is going to be bitten by a formidable frontcourt. They've survived one of the best forward duos there is in UMass' Stephane Lasme and Rashaun Freeman and barely escaped N.C. State's Brandon Costner and Ben McCauley. Mississippi State poses another problem with forward Charles Rhodes and huge guards Jamont Gordon, Dietric Slater, and the Delk brothers ( Reginald and Richard ). I thought N.C. State would do a formidable job on West Virginia's star guard Frank Young, but they allowed him to get scorching hot down the stretch. Mississippi State really should have the guards to defend him. I keep picking West Virginia to lose and one of these days I'm going to be right.

Mississippi State 74 West Virginia 66

#1 Clemson vs #1 Air Force

Once again in an Air Force game, it's going to be a major clash of styles. The Falcons really haven't seen an up and down quick tempo attack so far in the NIT and could have some problems with Clemson's athleticism. As I cited in the Clemson - Ole Miss game preview, Clemson is a terrible free throw shooting team and it will cost them at some point in a close game. Of course, they ended up blowing the Rebs out, but their failures from the line almost lost the Syracuse game last week. I really don't see Air Force getting blown out and in what should actually be a close game this time, free throws will probably matter. Air Force holds a healthy advantage in that department as they're fifth in the nation in free throw shooting.

Air Force 62 Clemson 58

NIT West Region Finals Breakdown

2007-03-21T15:55:00.000-05:00

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#1 Air Force vs #3 DePaul

Air Force has dismantled two straight opponents and are out to prove they belonged in the real tourney. They're also one of the toughest teams to beat at home but do face a tough matchup in DePaul. The Blue Demons are used to playing at an extremely slow speed ( 293rd in offensive possessions per game ), are one of the least turnover prone teams in the country, and really maximize their limited offensive possessions. However, DePaul likely won't be able to capitalize on their size like they did against Kansas State. Air Force is a pretty big team and it doesn't help DePaul that almost every person the Falcons put on the floor can shoot the three. What also doesn't help matters is that Air Force has seemingly regained their shooting stroke since the NIT began. Couple that with the fact the Blue Demons are a very poor three point shooting defensive team and I can't see Air Force, whose top four leading scorers are all very experienced seniors, losing at home.

Air Force 69 DePaul 60

NIT South Region Finals Breakdown

2007-03-21T15:49:00.002-05:00

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#1 Clemson vs #2 Syracuse

I was definitely wrong about both of these teams in my second round predictions. Clemson absolutely tore apart Ole Miss' press for layup after layup and Syracuse had little trouble with San Diego State's inside game. This time, Syracuse won't possess the awesome home court advantage they had in the first two rounds. However, I also don't think they will get punished by Clemson in transition like Ole Miss did. Ole Miss had big bodies that could have put Clemson at a matchup disadvantage in the frontcourt, but they were never allowed to fully get in to the game with the fast tempo. Syracuse has the really big bodies that Ole Miss did ( Terrence Roberts, Darryl Watkins ), but they have something the Rebels didn't - huge forwards that can actually get out in transition and score ( Demetris Nichols, Paul Harris ). I fully believe Syracuse has the weapons that can beat Clemson in a transition or half court game.

Syracuse 74 Clemson 69

NIT East Region Finals Breakdown

2007-03-20T14:25:00.001-05:00

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#1 West Virginia vs #6 North Carolina State

This game pits two similiar teams together. They both run incredibly precise motion offenses, lack depth, and attempt to play the game at their own slower pace. West Virginia acquitted themselves well in the second round against UMass as they were badly outmatched inside. They held their own and came away with a 90-77 win. West Virginia small forward Frank Young went off for 31 points and NCSU must stop him to get a victory in Morgantown. Fortunately for the Pack, they play much more physical defense than UMass does and possess the very athletic and long wings to shut him down. WVU is also faced with another tough frontcourt matchup as NCSU can pound it down low to Ben McCauley and Brandon Costner over and over. If Frank Young is stymied, West Virginia loses ( Young averages 9 points in WVU losses ). I think North Carolina State can and will stop him. This time, unlike the UMass game surprisingly, West Virginia is exposed in the paint.

North Carolina State 64 West Virginia 60

NIT North Region Finals Breakdown

2007-03-20T14:23:00.000-05:00

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#1 Mississippi State vs #2 Florida State

Both teams are playing extremely well coming into this game as Florida State obliterated Michigan 87-66 and MSU destroyed Bradley 101-72 in the previous round. Florida State has a huge matchup problem for Mississippi State in Al Thornton. One would think MSU's huge guard Jamont Gordon would play Al Thornton, but he may not be quick enough to stay with Thornton or tall enough to effectively guard him along the perimeter. It's not likely the Bulldogs would put foul prone forward Charles Rhodes on Thornton because he'd likely foul out in the first half. However, on the other side of things, how will Florida State guard Jamont Gordon? Though Gordon is a fantastic player for MSU, he's still inconsistent and could possibly be taken out of this game somewhat by Florida State's large backcourt. Can they contend with Gordon's brute strength though? Probably not. Both of those guys are probably going to get their points so what this game could come down to is the paint. Mississippi State has the clear edge in rebounding and considering Florida State lacks a true back to the basket post player, Charles Rhodes and offensively challenged Jarvis Varnado could have very good games inside for MSU. Both of these teams can light it up from the perimeter and in what should be a high scoring affair, I must take the more complete team. It also doesn't hurt that this game is being played in Starkvegas. I'm a bit hamstrung by picking Florida State to go to New York in my bracket projections because the more I think about it, the more I think Mississippi State will win. I'm not sure Florida State has anybody to stop Charles Rhodes down low.

Mississippi State 83 Florida State 80

NIT West Region Second Round Breakdown

2007-03-19T15:02:00.000-05:00

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#1 Air Force vs #4 Georgia

There's quite a contrast in styles in this one. Georgia pushes tempo and wants the game played in transition while Air Force will slow it down to a crawl. Though Georgia gave up many of their points to their first round opponent Fresno State in garbage time, they still need to lock up their perimeter defense against the Falcons. Air Force is the more fundamentally sound team, has homecourt advantage, and is likely to get their way in terms of style of play.

Air Force 64 Georgia 57

#2 Kansas State vs #3 DePaul

Kansas State struggles against big teams - and that's exactly what the Blue Demons are. Like Vermont did, DePaul figures to throw it down low to exploit KSU's small interior and they have the weapon to do it in forward Wilson Chandler. They also have athletic wings that can guard Kansas State's Cartier Martin, et al. DePaul did a pretty good job of letting Hofstra's fantastic guard trio get their points and shutting everybody else down in the first round. They need to have the same mentality tonight as Kansas State doesn't get points from lots of places.

DePaul 70 Kansas State 68

NIT South Region Second Round Breakdown

2007-03-19T13:02:00.000-05:00

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#1 Clemson vs #4 Ole Miss

Clemson struggled to pull away in their first round NIT victory over East Tennessee State while Ole Miss beat Appalachian State soundly. These teams are pretty evenly matched as much of their scoring is spread out amongst a host of players ( Clemson has 5 players averaging in double figures, Ole Miss has 4 ) and possess solid big men and guards alike. The difference in this one could be free throw shooting in what should be a tight game. Clemson shoots 58.4% from the line as a team which is good for 333rd in the nation. On the other hand, Ole Miss shoots a solid 70.1% from the stripe. Clemson also isn't spectacular at home going going 4-4 in their last 8 games and with students out for spring break, there doesn't figure to be a huge home court advantage. Ole Miss is playing too well right now to drop this one.

Ole Miss 71 Clemson 68

#2 Syracuse vs #6 San Diego State

If Syracuse had played a better opponent in the first round, I would have surely picked Syracuse to lose. As is, they almost dropped one to a struggling South Alabama team and it's concerning how poor their defense and rebounding were. They gave up 11 offensive boards, got outrebounded, and let the Jaguards shoot 13-30 from behind the arc before USA faltered late. San Diego State picked up a very impressive road win over Missouri State in the opening round and have the weapons offensively to actually keep a late lead over Syracuse. If South Alabama was able to more than hold their own on the inside, San Diego State should do even better with big men Jerome Habel and Mohamed Abukar leading the way. Former Mountain West POY Brandon Heath poured in 26 points against Missouri State and needs to have another big game for the Aztecs to beat Syracuse in the Carrier Dome. It should be noted that I was very, very impressed with the crowd that turned out for Syracuse's win over South Alabama considering the students weren't on campus at the time. The place should be rocking again, but I think San Diego State has enough to get it done.

San Diego State 78 Syracuse 74

Quick update

2007-03-19T12:44:00.000-05:00

Due to weekend long internet problems, I wasn't able to update any second round tournament previews. Because of that, I'll be doing NIT coverage only from here on out.

Tournament South Region Breakdown

2007-03-15T01:55:00.000-05:00

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Favorite:

Texas A&M might play the best defense in the tournament and that's saying something when UCLA, Florida, and Georgetown are also taking part in it. The Aggies also have one of the easier roads to the Final 4 if they can possibly get by Louisville in an away game atmosphere.

Sleeper:

Louisville, like I mentioned above, will have the great benefit of playing in Lexington for the first two rounds. It doesn't hurt to be as talented as they are either.

Major Sleeper:

Long Beach State won't fear anybody, particularly a Tennessee team that will attempt to run with them. That might be a mistake against one of the best up and down teams in the country. If Long Beach State were to get past the Vols, they would face another guard heavy team the 49ers could take advantage of.

Top Two Games:

#5 Tennessee vs #12 Long Beach State
#7 Nevada vs #10 Creighton

The Games:

#1 Ohio State vs #16 Central Connecticut State

Central Connecticut State has a really nice starting 5 for a 16 seed that they rely heavily on, but Ohio State's size in the paint will be far too much.

Ohio State 79 Central Connecticut State 59

#2 Memphis vs #15 North Texas

North Texas is a lot like Memphis in that they start a very big and athletic lineup, play at a fast tempo, and can't shoot free throws. Oh, but Memphis plays defense.

Memphis 83 North Texas 62

#3 Texas A&M vs #14 Pennsylvania

The Quakers have enough offense to make this a closer game for a half, but Texas A&M has far too many big men for Penn to handle. It doesn't help when you're 236th in the country in rebounding.

Texas A&M 71 Pennsylvania 55

#4 Virginia vs #13 Albany

I really think there's a good possibility for an upset here. Virginia is probably overseeded and doesn't have the inside game to make Albany pay for their smallish lineup. Albany comes close for a second straight year.

Virginia 73 Albany 69

#5 Tennessee vs #12 Long Beach State

The best thing Tennessee does - press to create turnovers and quicken the tempo - is the exact wrong thing to do against the 49ers. Not only will Long Beach State break that press, but they'll probably drain a three on the other end. Tennessee might not be able to exploit LBSU's small frontcourt either because they lack size of their own. In a guard heavy game, I'll take Long Beach State - Chris Lofton or not on the other side.

Long Beach State 84 Tennessee 82

#6 Louisville vs #11 Stanford

No matter what Pitino says, the home crowd in Lexington will be a factor. Stanford is getting a bad rep for barely sliding into the tournament, but they're actually playing pretty well recently - dropping a few really close games. Louisville has David Padgett they can match on to one of Stanford's 7 foot Lopez twins, but what happens if he gets in early foul trouble? I really can't wait to see how the Cardinals handle Stanford's huge frontcourt.

Louisville 75 Stanford 73

#7 Nevada vs #10 Creighton

Creighton doesn't have a lot of depth or scoring options, other than G Nate Funk or C Anthony Tolliver. The Blue Jays won't be able to defend Nick Fazekas as they don't have a big man athletic enough or used to covering so much area on the court. Nate Funk must have a big game for Creighton to win, but he's going to face a really good defensive guard from Nevada no matter who rotates on him.

Nevada 73 Creighton 66

#8 BYU vs #9 Xavier

Like their MWC partner UNLV, BYU got badly underseeded at 8. What more could they have done to pass teams like 7 seeds Indiana and Boston College? Well, their early season loss to Lamar was pretty bad. Still though, this Cougars team is really good and can cause trouble in the second round for Ohio State.

BYU 76 Xavier 71

Tournament East Region Breakdown

2007-03-15T01:48:00.000-05:00

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Favorite:

Georgetown. Sensing a theme here? Lots of experience and tough as nails defense will get you in my favorite spot quicker than anything.

Sleeper:

Texas, led by what's his face Kevin something, has the talent to go toe to toe with North Carolina. Anybody else reminded of the 03 Syracuse team, except even better?

Major Sleeper:

You never know what you're going to get with Arkansas. I assume Arkansas fans wanted the Hogs to miss the tournament entirely so Coach Heath could be fired, but they're here now. There's really no excuse for them coming in as a 12 seed, probably the last team into the tournament, with all of their talent. They're either losing in the first round or going to the Elite 8.

Top Two Games:

#4 Texas vs #13 New Mexico State
#5 Southern Cal vs #12 Arkansas

The Games:

#1 North Carolina vs #16 Eastern Kentucky

Eastern Kentucky got here on a buzzer beater against Austin Peay in the OVC conference championship game. EKU hung well in the tournament a couple of years ago as a 15 seed against Kentucky, but UNC is far too talented to let the Colonels stay in this game.

North Carolina 85 Eastern Kentucky 59

#2 Georgetown vs #15 Belmont

Belmont has two huge bodies they can stick on Georgetown's Hibbert and Green, but they tire quickly and can get into foul trouble. The Bruins have a nice backcourt that could give Georgetown a few problems, but Hibbert should absolutely dominate in this game.

Georgetown 74 Belmont 51

#3 Washington State vs #14 Oral Roberts

Most people's 13+ seed upset pick for this season, Oral Roberts has one of the best big men in the country with Caleb Green who forms a really good inside-out tandem with guard Ken Tutt. They must get more scoring production from the other players on the court though- something they haven't done much of this year. ORU keeps it close, but doesn't have quite enough to pull the upset.

Washington State 64 Oral Roberts 57

#4 Texas vs #13 New Mexico State

Texas could actually find themselves in some trouble against the Aggies. NMSU's fast paced attack could give Texas's inconsistent defense some concern for a half, but the Aggies' shooting is too hot and cold for me to pick them to win. Though they can really hang with Texas on the glass, they're far too turnover prone and probably don't have the defensive stopper to contain Durant or Augustin.

Texas 84 New Mexico State 70

#5 Southern Cal vs #12 Arkansas

While Arkansas has the clear advantage with their fantastic frontcourt, USC holds the winning key with their backcourt. Any time a team has Gary Ervin running the point, can you really pick them wholeheartedly? I can't. Who knows which Arkansas team comes to play.

Southern Cal 73 Arkansas 64

#6 Vanderbilt vs #11 George Washington

Another trendy upset pick, but George Washington felt closer to a 13 seed than an 11 seed to me. George Washington, very athletic as always, runs into a team that can score and run with them. Shan Foster and Derrick Byars will be far too much for the Colonials to handle.

Vanderbilt 78 George Washington 69

#7 Boston College vs #10 Texas Tech

Boston College is limping into the tournament and seem ripe for an upset - particularly from a Bobby Knight coached tournament team. We'll forget about that blowout loss to Pepperdine in the first round when he was at Indiana though.

Texas Tech 71 Boston College 64

#8 Marquette vs #9 Michigan State

As most know by now, Marquette's second leading scorer Jerel McNeal is going to miss this game due to injury. Even with McNeal and all their other guards, they still didn't produce much offense. Michigan State can put the clamps down on defense which doesn't help matters.

Michigan State 64 Marquette 62

Tournament West Region Breakdown

2007-03-15T01:29:00.000-05:00

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Favorite:

UCLA has the experience and tenacious defense to edge Kansas for my pick.

Sleeper:

Virginia Tech possesses the athleticism to possibly match up well against Southern Illinois in the second round or Kansas in the Sweet 16.

Major Sleeper:

Gonzaga, even without Heytvelt, can definitely beat Indiana's two man show of D.J. White and Roderick Wilmont. After that, they have the talented guard play to put a scare into UCLA. Their lack of a post presence won't hurt them as much should they get to that point with the Bruins lacking a true dominant post player as well.

Top Two Games:

#4 Southern Illinois vs #13 Holy Cross
#6 Duke vs #11 Virginia Commonwealth

The Games:

#1 Kansas vs #16 Niagara

Niagara probably wants to rethink getting in a running match with Kansas. The Purple Eagles have a lot of offense, but give it up just as quickly on the other end.

Kansas 87 Niagara 64

#2 UCLA vs #15 Weber State

Weber State is probably more suited for the play-in game instead of the 15 they garnered. This seeding was one of the strangest of the tournament. Not that the 15 seed helped matters much as they play one of the best teams in the country. UCLA, even perhaps without the services of the hobbled Collison, can handle the Wildcats.

UCLA 76 Weber State 51

#3 Pittsburgh vs #14 Wright State

Wright State doesn't have any single person that can effectively match up against Gray, but all it takes is one player to take over the game sometimes. And the Raiders have that with guard Dashaun Wood. Will he be enough against the stingy Pitt defense? Probably not, but I think this could be interesting late into the second half.

Pittsburgh 67 Wright State 59

#4 Southern Illinois vs #13 Holy Cross

Holy Cross is always so close to pulling a huge upset in the tournament but never quite gets there. If you play tough defense against Southern Illinois, which Holy Cross does, they can be beaten. In a game earlier this year against Bradley, SIU was befuddled against a simple zone and lost 48-46. Fortunately for the Crusaders, they didn't play some of the other 4 seeds like Texas or Maryland because they would get crushed on the glass. Now that they're matched up against SIU, they're the ones with the actual size advantage. Holy Cross pulls off the upset with their senior backcourt duo of Keith Simmons and Torey Thomas leading the way.

Holy Cross 57 Southern Illinois 55

#5 Virginia Tech vs #12 Illinois

Illinois may possibly be the ugliest team to watch in this tournament. They absolutely can not score and their defense won't be enough to save them in this game.

Virginia Tech 68 Illinois 58

#6 Duke vs #11 Virginia Commonwealth

One would think it's finally Duke's time to fail to get to the Sweet 16. Virginia Commonwealth's quick backcourt can cause some problems for the Blue Devils, but Duke's Josh McRoberts should be able to take advantage of VCU's smallish frontcourt. The Rams certainly won't beat themselves with mistakes as they're top 30 nationally in most ball control categories, but their defense is suspect and they may have a tough time on the boards with Duke. In any event, this should be a really close game.

Duke 69 Virginia Commonwealth 67

#7 Indiana vs #10 Gonzaga

I definitely think of Gonzaga as the favorite here. Indiana comes across the country after struggling for the last part of the season to play a team that overmatches them offensively. Indiana lacks a second option to D.J. White in the post and Gonzaga may not be able to exploit that weakness, but they do have a backcourt that will really challenge Indiana. The Hoosiers might not have enough scoring options to win this one.

Gonzaga 73 Indiana 69

#8 Kentucky vs #9 Villanova

So, a repeat of last year? Kentucky struggles to find any offense for most of the season, comes into the tournament as an 8 seed, most pick the Wildcats to get upset, and they then fall to one of the more talented #1 seeds in the second round. Watch as Kentucky's Bobby Perry gracefully goes for 20+ points. I believe Perry only comes out of hibernation for March.

Kentucky 68 Villanova 64

Tournament Midwest Region Breakdown

2007-03-15T01:21:00.000-05:00

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Favorite:

Florida in a land slide.

Sleeper:

UNLV. Even though they are terribly underseeded at 7, they lucked out by facing the worst two seed in the tournament..or Texas A&M Corpus Christi, if they can get by Tech.

Major Sleeper:

Despite being very inconsistent in the regular season, Arizona has one of the best starting fives in the country. If they get past Purdue, depth could become an issue against the Gators, but there's no question they have the scoring punch to hang with Florida.

Top Two Games:

#6 Notre Dame vs #11 Winthrop
#7 UNLV vs #10 Georgia Tech

The Games:

#1 Florida vs #16 Jackson State

Jackson State is glad they finally have their best post player Jeremy Caldwell somewhat healthy after missing him on and off for the past month and some. That way he doesn't have to watch from the bench as Jackson State gets smoked by 20. For all the talk of Trey Johnson, he really didn't play that well down the stretch for the Tigers other than the SWAC tournament.

Florida 88 Jackson State 63

#2 Wisconsin vs #15 Texas A&M Corpus Christi

I so badly want to pick the Islanders here because I think Wisconsin's going out early in this tournament anyways. Texas A&M CC has the size to match the Badgers, particularly without Butch, and have the backcourt to complement it. This is going down to the buzzer.

Wisconsin 69 Texas A&M Corpus Christi 68

#3 Oregon vs #14 Miami ( OH )

Well, I'd certainly call this one a clash of styles. Miami wants to slow, slow, slow it down and Oregon wants to get out in transition. Like a few others, I have a funny feeling about this game. I don't think Oregon will necessarily control all of the game tempo which could mean this one goes down to the wire.

Oregon 72 Miami ( OH ) 65

#4 Maryland vs #13 Davidson

Davidson is about as talented as any mid major you can find this season. They've got depth, size, a good frontcourt and backcourt. In fact, to nobody's surprise, I think Davidson can certainly get to the Sweet 16. However, Maryland's experienced and athletic frontcourt could cause some problems for Davidson. The Wildcats can't let point guard Greivis Vasquez get going.

Maryland 76 Davidson 73

#5 Butler vs #12 Old Dominion

Old Dominion's stout defense and quality backcourt will give Butler fits. Butler has suffered cold shooting woes for over a month now and they're not facing a team that's likely to give them many open looks. They're going to have a wail of a time trying to guard ODU's PF Valdas Vasylius.

Old Dominion 66 Butler 61

#6 Notre Dame vs #11 Winthrop

Most everybody's darkhouse candidate, Winthrop, is going to have a really tough time trying to stop Notre Dame inside. Craig Bradshaw is their best interior player, but he's still far more of a face up shooter than a post up player. Winthrop has the most quality depth of any mid major this season, but it's going to be a challenge for them to matchup defensively with the Irish's Rob Kurz, Luke Harangody, and Zach Hillesland. If you zone to stop the entry passes, Notre Dame can shoot you to death from the perimeter. If Winthrop plays man to man, Notre Dame could feast on the inside. Even so, Winthrop has plenty of scoring options themselves on the other end and will keep this very close until the finish.

Notre Dame 79 Winthrop 75

#7 UNLV vs #10 Georgia Tech

UNLV's senior-laden team is ready to prove the committee wrong after being underseeded. I'll take UNLV's experience over Georgia Tech's freshmen led team. Whoever wins this is going to the Sweet 16 in my opinion. Wisconsin certainly wasn't done any favors as the 2 seed in this bracket.

UNLV 81 Georgia Tech 77

#8 Arizona vs #9 Purdue

It's amazing Purdue got a 9 seed. I guess their reward was playing one of the most talented teams in the country right off the bat and possibly getting a chance at THE most talented team in the country in the second round. They won't get that opportunity.

Arizona 79 Purdue 64

NIT East Region Second Round Breakdown

2007-03-15T01:00:00.000-05:00

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#1 West Virginia vs #4 UMass

West Virginia blitzed Delaware State 74-50 on Tuesday night holding the Hornets to 36.7% shooting and zero free throw attempts. The only negative to come from that game was WVU allowing 10 offensive boards to Delaware State. That may not seem so bad, but we're talking about one of the smaller teams in the country. That's been the Mountaineers' problem all season - rebounding. In turn, they have problems with really solid frontcourts. Unfortunately for them, they're facing one of the biggest and baddest front lines in the country when they go up against Massachusetts. UMass took it to Alabama's big men with 10 blocked shots and 15 offensive boards and pulled out an 89-87 OT win. Stephane Lasme, Rashaun Freeman, and Gary Forbes should have a field day against the 'Neers.

UMass 77 West Virginia 72

#6 North Carolina State vs #7 Marist

Marist's win over Oklahoma State was a huge surprise to me. The Cowboys were in a freefall , but they were starting to play better in the last couple of weeks. That they held OSU to 64 points is particularly impressive considering they've had problems with their defense all season long. Marist's three point ace Will Whittington runs hot and cold and I think the Wolfpack do a much better job covering him up than Oklahoma State did. Jared Jordan's shooting stroke has gone awry as the season has gone on and he'll need to be dynamite against Atsur and co. for the Red Foxes to win. North Caorlina State looks like a team on a mission and I can't pick against them.

North Carolina State 70 Marist 60

NIT North Region Second Round Breakdown

2007-03-15T00:59:00.000-05:00

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#1 Mississippi State vs #4 Bradley

Bradley is fresh off an OT win against Providence where they allowed the Friars' frontcourt to take control and that doesn't bode well for today's game. They gave up 28 points, 4 assists, 4 rebounts, and 4 steals to Jamont Gordon-like Providence "guard" Weyinmi Efejuku and had no answer for monster center Herbert Hill. Mississippi State also has the shooters from deep to really tear apart this Bradley defense. The Bulldogs move on to the quarterfinals.

Mississippi State 79 Bradley 70

#2 Florida State vs #3 Michigan

Florida State, my favorite to win the NIT, throttled a pretty solid Toledo team on Tuesday. Michigan is coming off an opening round win over Utah State where they had to pull away in the final minutes to win by 10. Both teams have big, athletic frontcourts, but you have to give the nod to Florida State whose Al Thornton put up 24 and 6 against Toledo. Michigan's defense is good enough to keep this close, but their lack of offensive punch will be their downfall once again.

Florida State 72 Michigan 61

NIT Bracket Predictions

2007-03-14T16:09:00.000-05:00

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I meant to post these up yesterday afternoon for your viewing pleasure.

NIT West Region Breakdown

2007-03-14T01:46:00.001-05:00

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#1 Air Force vs #8 Austin Peay

When I was talking about South Alabama being the coldest team coming into the NIT, well, scratch that. Air Force has lost 4 in a row including two must wins that would have probably gotten them into the tournament ( BYU at home, Wyoming in the MWC tourney ). They've been getting pounded on the boards, which isn't that unusual for them, but their shooting has really gone south. As has their defense. The Falcons have given up 50% FG% in three straight games. So they can't shoot it, can't rebound, and their defense has faltered. Thankfully for Air Force, Austin Peay doesn't rebound well, defend well, or shoot well either. Both of these teams slow the tempo down to a crawl which definitely plays into the hands of Air Force. Austin Peay won't be able to capitalize on their offensive possessions like the Falcons can if they're able to regain their three point shooting stroke.

Air Force 66 Austin Peay 54

#2 Kansas State vs #7 Vermont

Many thought Kansas State had a gripe after winning 10 games in the Big 12 and being left out of the tournament. However, only one of those ten wins was really impressive - their win at Texas. For a Big 12 team, one would think they could just outmuscle Vermont. The opposite should hold true - Vermont has the definitive advantage in the paint with forwards Chris Holm ( 10.6 ppg, 12.1 rpg ) and Martin Klimes ( 6.6 ppg, 4.6 rpg ). Kansas State has two huge freshmen big men in Luis Colon and Jason Bennett ( 7'3, 265 ), but they haven't been playing recently and are foul machines. Vermont also has the necessary prototypical 6'5/7 wings that can defend Cartier Martin ( 16.9 ppg, 4.4 rpg ) and David Hoskins ( 14.3 ppg, 6 rpg, 2.5 apg ). Vermont plays standout defense and can really push people, like Kansas State, around on the glass. The question may be if they can regain their shooting stroke after the debacle against Albany in the AEC championship game and how well freshman small forward Joe Trapani ( 11.7 ppg, 4.5 rpg ) plays, still recovering from an injury. I'm seeing a second 7 seed upset over a Big 12 team.

Vermont 70 Kansas State 65

#3 DePaul vs #6 Hofstra

DePaul was the last team out of my final NIT projections and they wind up getting a three seed. I have no problem with them getting in - but how did they manage to get a 3 seed? Over Ole Miss and Appalachian State for example? In any event, this should be an interesting contrast of styles. Even though Hofstra has one of the best backcourts in the country, they choose to slow the pace. As does DePaul. However, Hofstra, with all of those guards, has a difficult time rebounding or stopping a dominant low post man. The Blue Demons have one of the more talented young interior guys in the country with Wilson Chandler ( 14.2 ppg, 6.9 rpg, 1.4 bpg ) and will no doubt spend a large amount of time getting him the ball. Another disadvantage for Hofstra is even with their great guard play of Loren Stokes ( 20.9 ppg, 5.7 rpg, 3 apg ), Antoine Agudio ( 20 ppg, 4 rpg, 2.4 apg ), and Carlos Rivera ( 13.1 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 4 apg, they're still outmatched physically against DePaul. We'll see if DePaul guards Sammy Mejia ( 6'6, 195 ) and Draelon Burns ( 6'4, 220 ) can take advantage. When successful, and much of the time Hofstra is ( 9th in the country in 3PT FG%), they hit their threes. Much like the Air Force game I previewed, this should be similiar. In a slow it down style of play, Hofstra is much more likely to capitalize on their offensive possessions than DePaul is. It also helps that DePaul is one of the more poor 3 point shooting defensive teams in the Big East.

Hofstra 69 DePaul 65

#4 Georgia vs #5 Fresno State

Georgia, fresh off getting blown out against Florida in the SEC quarters, also lacks the services of second leading scorer Mike Mercer who's done for the season with an injury. Fresno State got upset in the WAC quarters against Boise State, but have been hot recently beating New Mexico State twice and Utah State once in their past seven games. Both teams like to push the tempo and can rebound the ball well, but the comparisons end there. Fresno State absolutely gets after it on defense ranking in the top 8 nationally in FG%, 2PT FG%, 3PT FG%, eFG%, and blocks per game. They'll face a tough challenge against a team that is very dangerous behind the arc and also possesses a matchup problem in forward/center Takais Brown ( 14.1 ppg, 5.8 rpg ). Fresno State has the length to guard him, but do they have the thickness ( Brown is a ripped 250 ) to stop him? The question that must be answered, and is pivotal to Fresno State winning, is pretty obvious. Can they shoot well? For much of the season, they've been horrid in most every offensive category. Georgia isn't exactly terrible defensively and I don't think Fresno State's great defense will overcome their tragic offense.

Georgia 66 Fresno State 60

NIT South Region Breakdown

2007-03-14T01:45:00.000-05:00

For all NIT related coverage, click here.

#1 Clemson vs #8 East Tennessee State

I'm not sure what to make of Clemson being a #1 seed. There are a few other teams I definitely would have seeded ahead of the Tigers. In any event, they should get a fairly good test from ETSU who fell on their own floor to Belmont in the A-Sun conference championship game. Neither team is considerably deep, but ETSU should put a considerably larger starting lineup on the court other than 6' A-Sun POY Courtney Pigram ( 17.8 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 3.7 apg ). That helped lead them to be the best rebounding team in the Atlantic Sun, and they're also a very stout defensive team ranking in the top 50 nationally in most defensive categories. Particularly impressive is their .86 points given up defensively per possession in conference play. Of course, none of that mattered in their blowout loss to Belmont to end the regular season where the Bruins absolutely blitzed them from behind the arc ( 14 - 29 ). Courtney Pigram aside, Clemson still holds a distinct advantage in the backcourt and has the inside muscle of James Mays and Trevor Booker to get ETSU's foul prone front court in trouble early.

Clemson 76 East Tennessee State 65

#2 Syracuse vs #7 South Alabama

Syracuse, like Drexel, felt like they deserved to be in the tournament and Jim Boeheim has been making the radio rounds since Sunday pleading his case. Who knows if Syracuse will even really come to play in the NIT. It all adds up to the Orange being ripe to getting knocked out early. Fortunately for them, South Alabama may be the coldest team coming into this tourney having lost four in a row after reeling off 13 straight wins. The Jaguars don't particularly do anything very well - they don't score easily, they don't rebound, they don't play particularly great defense. They went on that long winning streak with smoke and mirrors and an interesting full court press defense. All of this should be a testament to Coach John Pelphrey who engineered this pretty fantastic season if you consider they lost most of what they had off last year's tournament team. Syracuse is quite error prone and lacks a plethora of ball handlers so the Jaguar press might annoy them early on. However, if they're able, Syracuse has lots of big bodies to throw it to down low which is where they are far superior to South Alabama. Darryl Watkins ( 8.4 ppg, 7.4 rpg, 3.4 bpg ) and Terrence Roberts ( 8.8 ppg, 8.1 rpg, 1.4 bpg ) create a formidable low post team and even wing/leading scorer Demetris Nichols ( 19 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 1.5 spg ) is bigger than most of the Jaguars' interior players. This should translate into the Orange passing it over the USA press for easy buckets.

Syracuse 75 South Alabama 60

#3 Missouri State vs #6 San Diego State

Quite the disappointing year for the Missouri State Bears. After last season's controversy of being the highest rated RPI team to ever be left out of the tournament, this was supposed to be their season. It looked promising early on with a win over Wisconsin and a blowout victory over Santa Clara. Things took a nose dive from there and they've found themselves back in the NIT. Like another MVC team I previewed, Bradley, they're deadly from behind the arc with team leader and three point ace Blake Ahearn ( 47% 3PT FG, 93% FT ) leading the way. They're also very deliberate with the ball only having around 68 possessions per game. It helps when you're also top 20 nationally in assists/turnovers ratio. On the other hand, San Diego State loves to push the ball and can really beat you down in the paint with a pair of 6'10 fowards Mohamed Abukar ( 15.9 ppg, 5.8 rpg ) and Jerome Habel ( 11 ppg, 6.2 rpg ). Fortunately for the Aztecs, they have two guys that can get them the ball in last year's conference POY Brandon Heath ( 19.2 ppg, 4 rpg, 3.6 apg ) and petite 5'9, 158 PG Richie Williams ( 7.2 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 4.6 apg ). It'll be interesting to see if Missouri State can find anybody to match up against SDSU's size and if they can also impose their slowed tempo on the Aztecs. It could be a long night for the Bears if they get in a running match. San Diego State hasn't played well on the road and, like Bradley's game, I think home court advantage will be a big factor in this one.

Missouri State 71 San Diego State 66

#4 Ole Miss vs #5 Appalachian State

In my mind, this is the most interesting game of the first round. Andy Kennedy deserves every bit of his SEC Coach of the Year recognitions after taking a team that was taught a "sludge" basketball philosophy under ex-coach Rod Barnes and making them an up tempo offensive minded club. Both of these teams run up and down the court and can scorch the nets. Appalachian State may actually have more depth than the Rebels, but Ole Miss does go deeper in their frontcourt which could be key in an up and down game like this one should be. Ole Miss' main big man Dwayne Curtis ( 12 ppg, 8.3 rpg ) is hobbled by an injury which could really open up the interior for Virginia transfer and current Mountaineer Donte Minter ( 11.4 ppg, 5 rpg ) or Jeremy Clayton ( 10.2 ppg, 7.1 rpg ). Both teams have very solid senior point guards in Ole Miss' Todd Abernethy ( 10.8 ppg, 3 rpg, 5.6 apg ) and App State's D.J. Thompson ( 15.5 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 5 apg, 2.5 spg ) combined with a host of other guards that can bomb from deep. Since these veteran teams are so evenly matched, you can almost flip a coin. Ole Miss has lost at home only once this season and that was to Kentucky on the first weekend of SEC play. Home court advantage could be key yet again.

Ole Miss 78 Appalachian State 76

NIT East Region Breakdown

2007-03-13T14:07:00.000-05:00

For all NIT related coverage, click here.

#1 West Virginia vs #8 Delaware State

You have to feel bad for Delaware State. They've absolutely dominated the MEAC two years in a row and lost a heartbreaker in the conference championship both years . After this year though, the Hornets lose just about every player to graduation, including two time MEAC POY Jahsha Bluntt. They're known for their very stingy defense and slow tempo. On the other side, Coach Beilein has to be praised for his work getting West Virginia this far. After being picked to finish last in the Big East, it's amazing they were even in contention for a tournament berth. Both of these teams lack a true back to the basket post player and can shoot the three. This should be a closely contested defensive battle. Delaware State must defend the arc and make every offensive possession count ( 334 out of 336 teams in offensive possessions per game ). Unfortunately for Delaware State, West Virginia runs a unique offense that is very hard to prepare for in a matter of two days. Then there's that home court advantage thing..

West Virginia 64 Delaware State 51

#2 Oklahoma State vs #7 Marist

Like Florida State, the Cowboys were another team that were thought to have locked up a tournament bid earlier in the season. Having completely fallen apart during the past couple of months, they should be happy to get this high of a seed in the NIT much less make the tournament. Marist's defense should also clear up any problems OSU was having offensively. Marist can certainly hang with Oklahoma State in the scoring column with their two-headed guard duo that consists of one of the best PG in the nation Jared Jordan ( 17.6 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 8.8 apg ) and three point shooter Will Whittington ( 17.1 ppg. 40% from 3 ) . The Red Foxes' ultimate demise, like it has been most of the season, will be their defense. There's no way in my mind they can stop Mario Boggan or JamesOn Curry.

Oklahoma State 84 Marist 76

#3 Drexel vs #6 North Carolina State

Drexel definitely has a valid complaint after being left out of the tourney. They have even more of a complaint after being seeded 3rd in the NIT. That's not even to mention they then have to play one of the hottest teams coming into this tournament. It appears as if the Dragons got screwed in every way. Since Engin Atsur has returned for the Wolfpack, they've beaten Virginia Tech three times, UNC once, Virginia once, and Duke once. Having played four games in four days in the ACC tournament and with Atsur's hamstring becoming an issue again, it'll be interesting to see how they play against a rested and angry Drexel team. The Dragons have two huge bodies in the paint with Chaz Crawford ( 6.8 ppg, 9.3 rpg, 3.3 bpg ) and Frank Elegar ( 16 ppg, 6.9 rpg ) that could wear North Carolina State down. Though those two could pose matchup problems for North Carolina State, the Wolfpack can provide matchup problems of their own. Every single player NCSU uses is over 6'4 and Drexel lacks the necessary wings to really match up defensively with players like Gavin Grant, Courtney Fells, and Brandon Costner who routinely drifts behind the arc. I'll take a team that's playing very well together and will be playing loose after their fairly amazing run in the ACC tourney over a team whose coach has been whining since Selection Sunday ( though he does have a beef ).

North Carolina State 69 Drexel 66

#4 UMass vs #5 Alabama

Alabama is beat up, plays lethargic, lacks any kind of post or transition defense, can't win on the road, makes the UCLA high post offense look like a joke, and is just a really dumb basketball team in general. That doesn't exactly spark confidence in me when you look at UMass' low post duo of Rashaun Freeman ( 15.2 ppg, 8.3 rpg ) and Stephane Lasme ( 13.3 ppg, 9.5 rpg, 5 bpg ) and how they will likely tear apart Alabama's interior defense. Alabama's Richard Hendrix can't play more than three minutes without being gassed which in turn means he's late on any kind of transition play and Jermareo Davidson doesn't know the meaning of help defense or stepping up in the lane. That's not even mentioning the Minutemen's Gary Forbes, who at 6'7 stepping out behind the three point line, will be a huge matchup problem for Alabama. Alonzo Gee or Mykal Riley will likely match up against him and both are terrible defending the arc. It appeared as if Alabama was done with this season after their blowout home loss to Auburn and there's no reason to think they're going to change their poor ways in the 32nd game. I can definitely see this one being a blowout. Atleast "defensive guru" Tom Asbury will likely be stepping down as an assistant coach after the season ( after this game I should say ).

UMass 81 Alabama 68

NIT North Region Breakdown

2007-03-13T14:05:00.000-05:00

For all NIT related coverage, click here.

#1 Mississippi State vs #8 Mississippi Valley State

Talk about a mismatch. Mississippi State, though young, is very deep and arguably one of the more talented SEC teams. MVSU, on the other hand, does nothing particularly well offensively as evidenced by them ranking 260th or lower in every major offensive category. Even though their defensive statistics are very impressive, it's largely due to them playing 18 games against the worst shooting conference in the country - also known as the SWAC. The Delta Devils don't have enough bodies to stop all of the offensive firepower of MSU. Do it all "point-forward/linebacker" Jamont Gordon ( 16 ppg, 7.2 rpg, 4.9 apg, 1.3 spg ) for the Bulldogs should really go off.

Mississippi State 80 Mississippi Valley State 58

#2 Florida State vs #7 Toledo

Florida State thought they had a tournament berth locked up after their February 4th win at Duke. Three point specialist and starting 2 guard Toney Douglas then proceeded to go down with a hand injury which resulted in four losses in five games. Douglas returned and helped lead them to an improbable comeback OT win at Miami and a key victory against Clemson. Though that wasn't enough to secure a tournament bid, they're still a very dangerous team that could reach the NIT Finals. They shouldn't sleep on Toledo though. They're a senior led, guard heavy team that has hung very well with some really good teams earlier in the season ( 5 point L at Drexel, 5 point OT L at Vanderbilt, 10 point L at Kansas, 3 point L vs Old Dominion ). The difference should be All-American Al Thornton. The Rockets really don't have anybody that can guard him.

Florida State 71 Toledo 63

#3 Michigan vs #6 Utah State

It's becoming pretty routine for Michigan to end up in the NIT having appeared in three of the last four. Utah State came within a desperation three at the buzzer of beating New Mexico State and heading to their third straight tournament appearance. The Aggies certainly won't be fearful of playing at Michigan with all but one of their key players having tournament experience. Utah State isn't a deep team going with only 7 players usually, but those 7 are quite talented. The question that must be answered though is how will they stop Courtney Sims and Brent Petway for Michigan on the interior? USU has some bulk, but do they have enough to beat a Michigan team whose starting lineup averages about 6'6 tall away from Logan, Utah? I think they do. Junior guard Jaycee Carroll ( 21.3 ppg, 6.8 rpg, 1.8 apg ) will be the difference in the first upset of the NIT.

Utah State 63 Michigan 61

#4 Bradley vs #5 Providence

Bradley suffered a heart-breaking loss in the MVC semifinals to Southern Illinois and now find themselves in another tough matchup against Providence. The Friars are the mirror opposite of Bradley in their team strength with their huge low post duo of Herbert Hill ( 18 ppg, 8.7 rpg, 3 bpg ) and Geoff McDermott ( 9.7 ppg, 9.2 rpg, 5.3 apg ) while the Braves absolutely bomb away from deep. In fact, they lead the country in 3PT FG% at 42.8% with guard Jeremy Crouch shooting an incredible 51% from downtown. Really, the only person Bradley puts on the court who doesn't shoot 3s is their big man Zach Andrews ( 11.1 ppg, 6.9 rpg ). As he's their only true low post player, he's going to have to avoid foul trouble for Bradley to be in good shape. Unfortunately for the Braves, staying out of foul trouble isn't exactly something he's keen on doing with him having fouled out of 9 games so far this season. The Braves do have something going for them though, and that's Providence being a fairly poor 3 point defending team ( 176th in the country which ranks them 12th in the Big East ). That will be the difference in a close back and forth game. Unlike most other arenas come NIT time, I think Bradley fans will really come out and support their team tomorrow night which is another huge boost.

Bradley 68 Providence 64

Play-in Game ( Florida A&M vs Niagara ) Breakdown

2007-03-13T12:34:00.000-05:00

For all tournament related coverage, click here.

Niagara

Best Player: G/F Charron Fisher leads the way with his 21 ppg and 8.1 rpg. While he was suspended for the first 8 games of the year for fighting in August, the Purple Eagles went 2-6.

Overview: As mentioned before, Niagara got off to a rough start without Fisher, but have been hot down the stretch winning 13 of their last 14 and 11 straight. They start and play all guards/small forwards which could give some bigger teams, like Kansas, matchup problems. Even with their small lineup, Niagara rebounds very well. They're top 35 in the country in RPG, D-REB%, and REB% along with first in their conference in all three. The Purple Eagles play a very up and down, fast paced tempo which leads to many transition points for the opposing team. They need to lock their defense down to avoid the earliest exit of them all.

Florida A&M

Best Player: F Rome Sanders ( 15.3 ppg, 5.9 rpg ) will pose problems for Niagara on the interior with his size. He's an adept scorer ( 65% FG%, 76% FT% ) having scored 20+ points ten times this season.

Overview: Like Niagara, other than Sanders and Alabama transfer Akini Adkins ( who plays very little ), they play all small forwards and guards who can really rebound the ball. That also translates into a more uptempo style that isn't exactly commonplace in the MEAC. Unlike the Purple Eagles, they actually play defense leading the MEAC in FG% defense and most key rebounding categories.

Prediction:

Niagara 80 Florida A&M 75

While many thought Florida A&M would wind up in the play-in game after their buzzer beater win in the MEAC championship over Delaware State, it was a shock that Niagara could even wind up being a 16 seed - much less actually facing Florida A&M on Tuesday. If the Rattlers can defend the perimeter well, something they aren't very good at doing, or Niagara goes cold from behind the arc, Florida A&M has a good shot. They have a huge advantage in the paint with Rome Sanders and Niagara must find a way to neutralize him.

Tournament Coverage

2007-03-13T11:07:00.000-05:00

Play-in Game Breakdown

Midwest Region First Round Breakdown

West Region First Round Breakdown

East Region First Round Breakdown

South Region First Round Breakdown

Season capsule and grades for losing teams

NIT Coverage

2007-03-13T11:04:00.000-05:00

NIT North Region First Round Breakdown

NIT East Region First Round Breakdown

NIT South Region First Round Breakdown

NIT West Region First Round Breakdown

NIT North Region Second Round Breakdown

NIT East Region Second Round Breakdown

NIT South Region Second Round Breakdown

NIT West Region Second Round Breakdown

NIT North Region Finals Breakdown

NIT East Region Finals Breakdown

NIT South Region Finals Breakdown

NIT West Region Finals Breakdown

NIT Final Four Breakdown

Season capsule and grades for losing teams

Tournament Coverage This Week

2007-03-13T02:08:00.000-05:00

Tuesday

Opening round play-in game previewed

First round of the NIT previewed and examined

Predictions all the way through the NIT championship

Wednesday

First round of the tournament previewed and examined

Predictions all the way through the national championship

My projection results and what's coming up in the next few days..

2007-03-12T01:54:00.000-05:00

Tourney

63/65 teams picked correctly ( Air Force and Syracuse instead of Purdue and Arkansas )
28 teams seeded correctly
50 teams picked within one seed

NIT

30/32 teams picked correctly ( Akron and Washington instead of Fresno State and DePaul )
11 teams seeded correctly
26 teams picked within one seed

Overall, I wasn't totally thrilled with how everything came out. I really considered sticking Arkansas in at the last minute to replace Syracuse and I'm shocked Akron was left out of the NIT for Fresno State. Washington too. The late switching around I did in my tournament projections cost me seeding wise.

I'll have game by game breakdowns and predictions for each of the NIT and tourney games in the next few days though. Stay tuned.

NCAA Tourney and NIT Final Bracket Projections ( March 11th )

2007-03-11T15:36:00.001-05:00

My apologies for the short leave.

Click on the images for an enlarged view.

Tourney

Last Five In: Air Force, Syracuse, Old Dominion, Stanford, Illinois

Last Five Out: Purdue, Kansas State, Drexel, Florida State, Arkansas

NIT

Last Five In: Providence, Hofstra, North Carolina State, San Diego State, Akron

Last Five Out: LSU, Bucknell, Iowa, Missouri, DePaul

Short hiatus

2007-03-09T02:37:00.000-05:00

I'll be back on Sunday with my final bracket projections and full tourney/NIT previews once the brackets are released. Enjoy the basketball this weekend!

Conference Tourney Predictions ( 3/7 )

2007-03-07T11:52:00.000-05:00

Results as of today:

87 - 36 ( 6 out of 11 conference champions picked correctly )

So, pretty average thus far.

NCAA Tourney and NIT Bracket Projections ( March 6th )

2007-03-06T11:20:00.000-05:00

Click on the images for enlarged views.

Tourney

Last Five In: Illinois, Drexel, Old Dominion, Missouri State, Syracuse

Last Five Out: Florida State, Purdue, West Virginia, Kansas State, Clemson

Clinched: Pennsylvania, Winthrop, Belmont, Davidson, Eastern Kentucky, Creighton, Niagara, Virginia Commonwealth, Gonzaga

NIT

Last Five In: Santa Clara, LSU, Auburn, Utah State, New Mexico State

Last Five Out: Bucknell, Dayton, Northern Iowa, Kent State, Fresno State/Connecticut

Clinched: Marist, Austin Peay, South Alabama, Toledo, East Tennessee State

MEAC, Mountain West, and WAC Conference Tourney Predictions

2007-03-06T10:03:00.000-05:00

I wanted to go ahead and put my predictions down for tonight's games in case I don't get to put them in jpeg format before tip offs. I'll also be putting up the A-10 and Big East conference tourney predictions among others by tomorrow morning.

MEAC
#7 Hampton over #10 Howard
#9 Bethune-Cookman over #8 Coppin State

MWC
#9 New Mexico over #8 TCU

WAC
#8 San Jose State over #9 Idaho

Coming tomorrow..

2007-03-06T01:53:00.000-05:00

Network problems have prevented me from posting the updated tourney projections. Really, it was just moving Delaware State up to Western Kentucky's 15 seed line and North Texas into Delaware State's 16 seed spot against UNC. I should have it up by tomorrow morning.

I'll also have the MEAC, MWC, and WAC conference tourney predictions up as well.

NCAA Tourney and NIT Bracket Projections ( March 5th )

2007-03-05T02:30:00.000-05:00

Click on the images for enlarged views.

Tourney

Last Five In: Illinois, Drexel, Old Dominion, Missouri State, Syracuse

Last Five Out: Florida State, Purdue, West Virginia, Kansas State, Clemson

Clinched: Pennsylvania, Winthrop, Belmont, Davidson, Eastern Kentucky, Creighton

NIT

Last Five In: Santa Clara, LSU, Auburn, Utah State, New Mexico State

Last Five Out: Bucknell, Dayton, Northern Iowa, Kent State, Fresno State/Connecticut

Clinched: Marist, Austin Peay, South Alabama, Toledo, East Tennessee State

NCAA Tourney and NIT Bracket Projections ( March 2nd )

2007-03-03T02:37:00.000-05:00

Click on the image for an enlarged view. NIT bracket will be up Saturday night.

Tourney

Last Five In: Georgia Tech, Texas Tech, Drexel, Illinois, Old Dominion

Last Five Out: Oklahoma State, West Virginia, Purdue, Florida State, Alabama

Big East ( 7): Pittsburgh, Marquette, Louisville, Georgetown, Notre Dame, Villanova, Syracuse
ACC ( 6 ): North Carolina, Virginia Tech, Virginia, Boston College, Duke, Georgia Tech
Pac-10 ( 6 ): UCLA, Washington State, Arizona, Oregon, Stanford, Southern Cal
Big Ten ( 5 ): Wisconsin, Ohio State, Indiana, Illinois, Michigan State
Big 12 ( 4 ): Kansas, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech
SEC ( 4 ): Florida, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Tennessee
MVC ( 3 ): Southern Illinois, Creighton, Missouri State
MWC ( 3 ): Air Force, UNLV, BYU
CAA ( 3 ): Virginia Commonwealth, Old Dominion, Drexel
Horizon ( 2 ): Butler, Wright State

Clinched: Pennsylvania

America East, Big Sky, Colonial, MAAC, Mid-Con, and WCC Conference Tourney Predictions

2007-03-02T01:54:00.000-05:00

I'll also have a tourney and NIT bracket projection update Friday evening.

The Bubble Rundown ( Feb 28th )

2007-02-28T17:19:00.000-05:00

I've broken the "on the fence" teams down into four different tiers. My predictions are what I think happens come tournament selection time - not as things stand today.

These are my locks and automatic bids:

LOCKS ( 32 ) - North Carolina, Virginia Tech, Virginia, Maryland, Duke, Boston College, Kansas, Texas, Texas A&M, Pittsburgh, Georgetown, Louisville, Notre Dame, Marquette, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Indiana, Memphis, Butler, Southern Illinois, BYU, UNLV, Air Force, UCLA, Washington State, USC, Oregon, Arizona, Florida, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Nevada

AUTO ( 21 ) - ( as things stand now ) Vermont, Xavier, ETSU, Winthrop, Weber State, Long Beach State, VCU, Wright State, Pennsylvania, Marist, Oral Roberts, Akron, Delaware State, CCSU, Austin Peay, Holy Cross, Davidson, Sam Houston State, Mississippi Valley State, South Alabama, Gonzaga

This leaves 12 spots for 36 bubble teams.

Tier 1 ( Almost Clinched ):

#1. Stanford ( 44 RPI /18 SOS ):
Remaining Games: Arizona State/Arizona

Stanford has all but clinched a spot, but obviously can't slip up against an Arizona State team that's playing very well down the stretch.

My prediction: Arizona State ( W ), Arizona ( W ) 19-10 ( 11 - 7 )
IN

#2. Kentucky ( 11 RPI / 2 SOS)
Remaining Games: Georgia/at Florida

Kentucky has all the computer numbers, but they aren't playing well at all and lack a marquee win. If they end up getting swept by Georgia, it's probably really time to panic.

My prediction: Georgia ( W ), at Florida ( L ) 20-10 ( 9 - 7 )
IN

#3. Creighton ( 29 RPI / 28 SOS )
Remaining Games: MVC tournament

Another team that's not playing good basketball down the stretch. They're still pretty much guaranteed to get in due to finishing 2nd in the 6th rated conference in the RPI. That's especially true with such a weak bubble team field this year. Get by the quarterfinals in the MVC tourney and they're in with no questions asked.

My prediction: Regular season over
IN

#4. Villanova ( 21 RPI / 7 SOS )
Remaining Games: at Connecticut/Syracuse

Good computer numbers and several really good wins ( at Georgetown, Notre Dame, Texas, Louisville ) means they're all but in unless they drop their final two.

My prediction: at Connecticut ( W ), Syracuse ( W ) 20-9 ( 9 - 7 )
IN

#5. Syracuse ( 48 RPI / 51 SOS )
Remaining Games: at Villanova

The Orange seem to have clinched a tournament birth with their win over Georgetown and would get in for sure if they can steal a win at Nova. Even if they don't get that, they're still probably safe with 10 Big East wins. They probably want to win a game in the Big East tournament for good measure though.

My prediction: at Villanova ( L ) 21 - 9 ( 10 - 6 )
IN

#6. Michigan State ( 22 RPI / 13 SOS )
Remaining Games: at Wisconsin

Michigan State got two huge wins last week against Wisconsin and Indiana. Dropped a tough road game to Michigan last night, but that still didn't hurt their profile that much considering they have no bad losses and several really quality wins. They'll get their final chance at a marquee road win against the Badgers to end the regular season. Of course, if they were to take that one it'd jump them to lock status.

My prediction: at Wisconsin ( L ) 21-10 ( 8 - 8 )
IN

#7. Missouri State ( 36 RPI / 44 SOS )
Remaining Games: MVC tournament

They did well to get a road win over struggling Wichita State and are probably in the same boat as Creighton - with such a weak bubble field, they probably won't be left out of the tournament after finishing 3rd in the MVC. The Bears probably don't want to risk being one and done in the MVC tourney though after what happened last year. I think if they get their quarterfinal win against Wichita State, they're safe.

My prediction: Regular season over
IN

#8. Old Dominion ( 34 RPI / 93 SOS )
Remaining Games: CAA tournament

Not many teams are playing as well as the Monarchs are these past few months. They're on an 11 game winning streak which includes good wins at Toledo and Drexel along with home wins over Hofstra and VCU. They probably need to get into the finals of the CAA tournament to feel really safe. There would be no shame in losing the championship to VCU on VCU's home floor. Their Georgetown win is also looking better and better.

My prediction: Regular season over
IN

Second Tier ( Work to do ):

#1. Illinois ( 31 RPI / 25 SOS )
Remaining Games: at Iowa

Illinois doesn't have a single good win away from home unless you count their Mizzou and Bradley wins that were played a few miles down the road. They need to beat Iowa to finish out the regular season heading into the Big Ten tourney.

My prediction: at Iowa ( L ) 21 - 10 ( 9 - 7 )
OUT

#2. Texas Tech ( 47 RPI / 14 SOS )
Remaining Games: Baylor/ at Iowa State

Not many teams have three wins like Texas Tech does over Kansas once and Texas A&M twice. They've got two easier games left before the Big 12 tournament and must win both.

My prediction: Baylor ( W ), at Iowa State ( W ) 20-11 ( 9 - 7 )
IN

#3. Oklahoma State ( 41 RPI/ 31 SOS )
Remaining Games: at Baylor/ at Nebraska

The Cowboys picked up a must win at home over Kansas State and need to win out in the regular season to have a chance to go dancing - particularly since they're still 0-fer on the road in the Big 12. I really think they're starting to turn it around and can get it done.

My prediction: at Baylor ( W ), at Nebraska ( W ) 21-9 ( 8 - 8 )
IN

#4. Winthrop ( 68 RPI/ 249 SOS )
Remaining Games: Big South tournament

I have them in as my automatic bid, but if they fall in the Big South championship to High Point I still think they'd have to get in. As much as their four non div-1 games have been talked about, it's not their fault they can't get anybody to play them at home. Also, let us not forget their road wins over ODU and Mississippi State.

My prediction: Regular season over
IN ( Auto bid, but if need be at large )

#5. West Virginia ( 55 RPI / 95 SOS )
Remaining Games: Cincinnati

Two good wins for the entire year and nary a decent road win. They need to win a few in the Big East tournament.

My prediction: Cincinnati ( W ) 20-8 ( 9 - 7 )
OUT

#6. Florida State ( 49 RPI/ 16 SOS )
Remaining Games: at Miami

Lots of good wins but have really faltered down the stretch with Douglas hurt. Thankfully for the 'Noles, they're getting him back in time for ACC tournament play. We'll see if that ends up being enough. Need at least one, perhaps two wins in the ACC tourney.

My prediction: at Miami ( W ) 19 - 11 ( 7 - 9 )
IN

#7. Georgia Tech ( 52 RPI / 37 SOS )
Remaining Games: North Carolina/ Boston College

Well, they certainly have their shot this week to prove they belong in the tournament. They almost pulled one out at Virginia which might have lifted them to the almost in category but faltered down the stretch. A win over UNC would likely put them over the top.

My prediction: North Carolina ( L ), Boston College ( W ) 19 - 11 ( 7 - 9 )
OUT

#8. Purdue ( 40 RPI / 33 SOS )
Remaining Games: Minnesota/ Northwestern

There's no more opportunities in the regular season to impress so they're going to have to get busy in the Big Ten tournament. A lack of any good road wins and a few really bad losses ( at Minnesota and Indiana State ) will prove to be costly.

My prediction: Minnesota ( W), Northwestern ( W ) 20-10 ( 9 - 7 )
OUT

#9. Alabama ( 45 RPI/ 53 SOS )
Remaining Games: Ole Miss/ at Mississippi State

Mark Gottfried coached teams play their best when backed into a corner and all is lost, and, truthfully, I wouldn't be surprised if they somehow won out in the regular season. Even if they did happen to make that happen, I'm not sure it'd be enough. They need to atleast get past the SEC tournament quarterfinals.

My prediction Ole Miss ( W ), Mississippi State ( L ) 20-10 ( 7 - 9 )
OUT

#10. Georgia ( 53 RPI/ 20 SOS )
Remaining Games: at Kentucky/ Tennessee

Like Georgia Tech, this is a make or break week for the Bulldogs. It'd be huge for them to get a win at Rupp over the struggling Wildcats and the Tennessee game at home is very winnable. Win both and they're in. Split and win one SEC tourney game and they'll have to sweat it.

My prediction: at Kentucky ( L ), Tennessee ( W ) 17-11 ( 9 - 7 )
OUT

#11. Drexel ( 42 RPI/ 100 SOS )
Remaining Games: CAA tournament

One of the best road teams in the country with wins over Villanova, Syracuse, Creighton, Vermont, and Hofstra away from home. The Dragons need to atleast get into the semifinals of the CAA tourney to be safe.

My prediction: Regular season over
IN

#12. Kansas State ( 58 RPI/ 89 SOS )
Remaining Games: Oklahoma

Ten wins in the Big 12 would usually get you in with no questions asked, but with how average the league is this year in the middle and towards the bottom that might not be the case. A lack of good wins unless they can get hot in the Big 12 tourney will keep them out.

My prediction: Oklahoma ( W ) 21-10 ( 10 - 6 )
OUT

#13. Clemson ( 43 RPI/ 39 SOS )
Remaining Games: Miami/ at Virginia Tech

Talk about a team fading. They've got to beat Virginia Tech to get back into consideration and a few wins in the ACC tourney wouldn't hurt either.

My prediction: Miami ( W ), at Virginia Tech ( L ) 20-10 ( 6 - 10 )
OUT

#14. Xavier ( 35 RPI/ 85 SOS )
Remaining Games: St. Joseph's/ at La Salle

Xavier has put themselves into pretty decent position to garner an at large bid if they can win their next two and get to the A-10 finals.

My prediction: St. Joseph's ( W ), at La Salle ( W ) 23-7 ( 13 - 3 )
IN ( auto ), IN ( otherwise )

Tier 3 ( A prayer ):

#1. Appalachian State ( 56/ 157 SOS )
Remaining Games: Southern tournament

Lots of good wins, but two sub 200 losses really hurt. Need to win the Southern tourney.

My prediction: Regular season over
OUT

#2. Bradley ( 46 RPI/ 27 SOS )
Remaining Games: MVC tournament

Good computer numbers and some really nice wins, but NIU loss at home probably killed their at large hopes. Need to get to the MVC finals.

My prediction:
OUT

#3. Ole Miss ( 61 RPI/ 74 SOS )
Remaining Games: at Alabama/ Auburn

Nary a good road or neutral site wins means no tournament bid unless they can get a win at Alabama and get into the SEC semis. As you'll see later, this will become a theme.

My prediction: at Alabama ( L ), Auburn ( W ) 19-11 ( 8 - 8 )
OUT

#4. Gonzaga ( 69 RPI/ 91 SOS )
Remaining Games: WCC tournament

Lots of good wins with Heytvelt, but since they're going to be judged on being without him I don't think they'll get in without the auto bid. They might have somewhat of a case if they lose to Santa Clara in the finals

My prediction: Regular season over
IN ( auto ) OUT ( otherwise )

#5. Michigan ( 50 RPI/ 50 SOS )
Remaining Games: Ohio State

It's pretty simple. They beat Ohio State and they're probably in. If not, it's another NIT season.

My prediction: Ohio State ( L ) 20-11 ( 8 - 8 )
OUT

#6. VCU ( 59 RPI/ 138 SOS )
Remaining Games: CAA tournament

You may ask how I could leave the CAA champion out when I have ODU and Drexel in. Well, VCU doesn't even come close to matching their OOC wins and their overall computer profile is quite weak. The committee won't be impressed if they drop a game in the CAA tourney on their own floor.

My prediction:
IN ( auto ) OUT ( otherwise )

#7. Providence ( 71 RPI/ 40 SOS )
Remaining Games: at South Florida/ at St. John's

Dropped a key home game against Syracuse which might have burst their bubble. Need to finish the regular season out strong and go deep in the Big East tourney.

My prediction: at South Florida ( W ), at St. John's ( W ) 19-10 ( 9 - 7 )
OUT

#8. UMass ( 57 RPI/ 125 SOS )
Remaining Games: La Salle/ at St. Joseph's

Need to atleast win out and then get to the A-10 tourney final to be considered. Probably needs to get the auto bid at this point.

My prediction: La Salle ( W ), at St. Joseph's ( W ) 23-7 ( 11 - 3 )
OUT

Tier 4 ( So you're saying there's a chance ):

#1. San Diego State ( 54 RPI/ 68 SOS )
Remaining Games: TCU

Their road loss to Utah probably did their at large chances in. The only option now seems to be winning the MWC tournament.

My prediction: TCU ( W ) 19 - 9 ( 10 - 6 )
OUT

#2. Arkansas ( 63 RPI/ 12 SOS )
Remaining Games: Mississippi State/ at Vanderbilt

There's too much talent on this team for potentially 15 losses. Like Mississippi State below, they need to win out and advance into the SEC semifinals to get a sniff from the committee. My guess is Stan Heath is fired after the year concludes.

My prediction: Mississippi State ( W ), at Vanderbilt ( L ) 17-13 ( 6 - 10 )
OUT

#3. Mississippi State ( 65 RPI/ 42 SOS )
Remaining Games: at Arkansas/ Alabama

The Bulldogs need to take the SEC West title and advance into the SEC semifinals. I don't think either will happen.

My prediction: at Arkansas ( L ), Alabama ( W ) 17-12 ( 8 - 8 )
OUT

#4. DePaul ( 60 RPI/ 19 SOS )
Remaining Games: South Florida

They've gotten a couple good wins over Notre Dame and Marquette recently and can hang their hat on the Kansas win, but early season losses to Northwestern, UAB, and St. John's will be their undoing. They probably need to atleast make it to the Big East conference championship to be put under real consideration. Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised to see that happen either with how well they're playing.

My prediction: South Florida ( W ) 17-12 ( 9 - 7 )
OUT

#5. Davidson ( 62 RPI/ 206 SOS )
Remaining Games: Southern tournament

They breezed through Southern Conference play and have no bad losses, but don't particularly have any good wins either. They really need to win the Southern tournament to be safe.

My prediction: Regular season over
IN ( Auto ) OUT ( otherwise )

#6. Hofstra ( 67 RPI/ 144 SOS )
Remaining Games: CAA tournament

Truthfully, their only chance now is to win the CAA tourney.

My prediction: Regular season over
OUT

Atlantic Sun, Missouri Valley, and Northeast Conference Tourney Predictions

2007-02-28T17:03:00.000-05:00

NCAA Tourney and NIT Bracket Projections ( Feb 28th )

2007-02-28T02:45:00.000-05:00

Click on the images for enlarged views.

Tourney

Last Five In: Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, Drexel, Illinois, Old Dominion

Last Five Out: Georgia Tech, West Virginia, Purdue, Florida State, Alabama

Big East ( 7): Pittsburgh, Marquette, Louisville, Georgetown, Notre Dame, Villanova, Syracuse

ACC ( 6 ): North Carolina, Virginia Tech, Virginia, Boston College, Duke, Maryland
Pac-10 ( 6 ): UCLA, Washington State, Arizona, Oregon, Stanford, Southern Cal
Big Ten ( 5 ): Wisconsin, Ohio State, Indiana, Illinois, Michigan State
Big 12 ( 5 ): Kansas, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State
SEC ( 4 ): Florida, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Tennessee
MVC ( 3 ): Southern Illinois, Creighton, Missouri State
MWC ( 3 ): Air Force, UNLV, BYU
CAA ( 3 ): Virginia Commonwealth, Old Dominion, Drexel
Horizon ( 2 ): Butler, Wright State

NIT

Last Five In: South Carolina, Santa Clara, Bucknell, St. Louis, North Carolina State

Last Five Out: Auburn, Kent State, Wichita State, Nebraska, Oklahoma

SEC ( 7 ): Alabama, Georgia, Arkansas, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, South Carolina, LSU
ACC ( 4 ): Georgia Tech, Florida State, Clemson, North Carolina State
Big East ( 3) : West Virginia, Providence, DePaul
Big Ten ( 3 ): Purdue, Michigan, Iowa
A-10 ( 2 ): UMass, St. Louis
Big 12 ( 2 ): Kansas State, Missouri
MVC ( 2 ): Bradley, Northern Iowa
Pac-Ten ( 2 ): Washington, Cal
WAC ( 2 ): Utah State, New Mexico State

It's pretty unbelievable that the SEC could have every team make the postseason in some form. Has a conference ever had that happen before?

Updates coming tomorrow

2007-02-28T01:52:00.000-05:00

Instead of last night, I'll be posting the bubble team run downs tomorrow. I'll also be providing more conference tourney predictions.

Patriot, Sun Belt, and Southern Conference Tourney Predictions

2007-02-27T22:47:00.000-05:00

Later tonight..

2007-02-27T19:36:00.000-05:00

I'll have an updated bracket projection for the tourney and NIT, more conference tourney predictions, and a run down of the bubble teams.

Big South, Horizon, and OVC Conference Tourney Predictions

2007-02-27T02:17:00.000-05:00

I'll be putting more predictions up as the conference regular seasons come to an end.

NCAA Tourney and NIT Bracket Projections ( Feb 26th )

2007-02-26T19:08:00.000-05:00

Click on the images for enlarged views.

Tourney

Last Five In: Texas Tech, Georgia Tech, Drexel, Old Dominion, Missouri State

Last Five Out: Alabama, Purdue, Florida State, Kansas State, Georgia

ACC ( 7 ): North Carolina, Virginia Tech, Virginia, Boston College, Georgia Tech, Duke, Maryland
Big East ( 7): Pittsburgh, Marquette, Louisville, Georgetown, Notre Dame, Villanova, West Virginia
Pac-10 ( 6 ): UCLA, Washington State, Arizona, Oregon, Stanford, Southern Cal
Big Ten ( 5 ): Wisconsin, Ohio State, Indiana, Illinois, Michigan State
SEC ( 4 ): Florida, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Tennessee
Big 12 ( 4 ): Kansas, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech
MVC ( 3 ): Southern Illinois, Creighton, Missouri State
MWC ( 3 ): Air Force, UNLV, BYU
CAA ( 3 ): Virginia Commonwealth, Old Dominion, Drexel
Horizon ( 2 ): Butler, Wright State

NIT

Last Five In: Oklahoma, Bucknell, North Carolina State, St. Louis, Northern Iowa

Last Five Out: Nebraska, Auburn, South Carolina, Wichita State, Kent State

SEC ( 6 ): Alabama, Arkansas, LSU, Ole Miss, Georgia, Mississippi State

Big 12 ( 4 ): Oklahoma State, Kansas State, Missouri, Oklahoma

ACC ( 3 ): Florida State, Clemson, North Carolina State

Big East ( 3 ): Syracuse, Providence, DePaul

Big Ten ( 3 ): Purdue, Michigan, Iowa

A-10 ( 2 ): UMass, St. Louis

Missouri Valley ( 2 ): Bradley, Northern Iowa

Pac-10 ( 2 ): Washington, Cal

WAC ( 2 ): New Mexico State, Utah State

Coming later this evening..

2007-02-26T19:07:00.000-05:00

I'll be putting up conference tournament predictions in the same bracket format I use for the NIT/Tourney projections. Also, I'll be updating those said NIT/Tourney projections daily as soon as the conference tournaments really kick into gear.

NCAA Tourney and NIT Bracket Projections ( Feb 23rd )

2007-02-23T23:17:00.000-05:00

Click on the images for an enlarged view.

Tourney

Last Five In: Texas Tech, Missouri State, Old Dominion, Georgia Tech, Illinois

Last Five Out: Oklahoma State, Purdue, Clemson, Georgia, Florida State

ACC ( 7 ): North Carolina, Virginia Tech, Virginia, Boston College, Georgia Tech, Duke, Maryland
Big East ( 7): Pittsburgh, Marquette, Louisville, Georgetown, Notre Dame, Villanova, West Virginia
Pac-10 ( 6 ): UCLA, Washington State, Arizona, Oregon, Stanford, Southern Cal
SEC ( 5 ): Florida, Alabama, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Tennessee
Big Ten ( 5 ): Wisconsin, Ohio State, Indiana, Illinois, Michigan State
Big 12 ( 4 ): Kansas, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech
MVC ( 3 ): Southern Illinois, Creighton, Missouri State
MWC ( 3 ): Air Force, UNLV, BYU
CAA ( 2 ): Virginia Commonwealth, Old Dominion
Horizon ( 2 ): Butler, Wright State

NIT

Last Five In: Northern Iowa, St. Louis, Connecticut, Wichita State, Oklahoma

Last Five Out: Nebraska, South Carolina, LSU, The whole upper half of the Atlantic 10

SEC ( 4 ): Georgia, Arkansas, Ole Miss, Mississippi State
Big East ( 4 ): Syracuse, Providence, DePaul, Connecticut
Big 12 ( 4 ): Oklahoma State, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Missouri
ACC ( 3 ): Clemson, Florida State, North Carolina State
Big 10 ( 3 ): Purdue, Iowa, Michigan
MVC ( 3 ): Bradley, Northern Iowa, Wichita State
Pac-10 ( 2 ): Washington, Cal
WAC ( 2 ): New Mexico State, Utah State
CAA ( 2 ): Drexel, Hofstra
Atlantic 10 ( 2 ): UMass, St. Louis

Updated Bracket Projections

2007-02-22T01:51:00.000-05:00

I'll have an update coming on Friday.

NCAA Tourney and NIT Bracket Projections ( Feb 19th )

2007-02-19T11:29:00.000-05:00

Click the images for an enlarged view.

Tourney

Last Five In: Texas Tech, Missouri State, Michigan State, Clemson, West Virginia

Last Five Out: Kansas State, Arkansas, Gonzaga, Georgia Tech, Florida State

NIT

Last Five In: North Carolina State, Iowa, LSU, Nebraska, Connecticut

Last Five Out: Northern Iowa, Dayton, South Carolina, George Washington, Bucknell

Predictions for Feb 17th

2007-02-17T10:08:00.000-05:00

Record: 320 - 140 ( 24 - 21 GOTD )

Games of the day

#1. Southern Illinois at Butler

Southern Illinois 64 Butler 63

#2. Florida at Vanderbilt

Florida 73 Vanderbilt 70

#3. UCLA at Arizona

UCLA 73 Arizona 71

#4. North Carolina at Boston College

North Carolina 74 Boston College 69

#5. Kentucky at Alabama

Alabama 72 Kentucky 67

#6. Georgetown at Villanova

Georgetown 66 Villanova 63

#7. Drexel at Creighton

Creighton 71 Drexel 69

#8. Oregon at Stanford

Oregon 71 Stanford 68

#9. Bradley at VCU

VCU 74 Bradley 70

#10. Texas A&M at Oklahoma

Oklahoma 65 Texas A&M 61

#11. Memphis at Gonzaga

Memphis 78 Gonzaga 69

#12. Florida State at Virginia

Florida State 73 Virginia 71

#13. Ole Miss at Arkansas

Arkansas 75 Ole Miss 72

#14. Appalachian State at Wichita State

Wichita State 76 Appalachian State 74

#15. Holy Cross at Hofstra

Hofstra 71 Holy Cross 65

#16. Washington at Pittsburgh

Pittsburgh 75 Washington 66

Bracket Busters
Northeastern 68 Maine 63
Cal Poly 82 Portland State 77
Northern Arizona 78 San Jose State 69
Montana 75 Pacific 67
UC-Santa Barbara 73 Eastern Washington 70
Coastal Carolina 78 Canisius 71
Niagara 80 Liberty 74
San Francisco 76 UC Irvine 71
CSU-Fullerton 74 Wright State 73
CSU-Northridge 75 Cleveland State 65
Idaho 63 UC Riverside 59
Long Beach State 79 Hawaii 72
Bucknell 65 Towson 62
Georgia State 69 Elon 62
William & Mary 68 Fairfield 66
George Mason 67 Kent State 59
Old Dominion 70 Toledo 65
Delaware 63 Iona 55
Siena 71 James Madison 62
UNC-Greensboro 69 UNC-Wilmington 60
UW-Green Bay 68 Northern Illinois 65
Loyola ( IL ) 74 Eastern Illinois 58
Eastern Kentucky 64 Youngstown State 61
Illinois-Chicago 70 Central Michigan 66
Detroit 63 Buffalo 60
Drake 74 UW-Milwaukee 64
Manhattan 71 Eastern Michigan 67
Rider 73 Murray State 65
Marist 70 Colgate 53
UT-Martin 64 St. Peter's 54
Tennessee State 71 Loyola ( MD ) 70
Indiana State 66 Miami ( OH ) 61
Western Michigan 69 Valparaiso 63
Akron 73 Austin Peay 67
Illinois State 71 Ball State 57
Bowling Green 65 Morehead State 63
New Mexico State 75 Ohio 64
Oral Roberts 71 Utah State 65
Evansville 67 Samford 61
Nevada 72 Northern Iowa 61
Chattanooga 68 Jacksonville State 59
Louisiana Tech 64 SE Missouri State 61
Northwestern State 81 Tennessee Tech 79
Sam Houston State 75 Fresno State 73

A-10
George Washington 88 Temple 82
Rhode Island 71 Charlotte 64
St. Joseph's 72 St. Bonaventure 62
Xavier 64 Richmond 50
St. Louis 66 LaSalle 58

ACC
Wake Forest 72 Miami 68

A-10
Lipscomb 69 Gardner-Webb 58
East Tennessee State 70 Kennesaw State 68
Belmont 67 Campbell 55

Big 12
Oklahoma State 75 Missouri 67
Kansas 79 Nebraska 60
Kansas State 73 Iowa State 64
Texas Tech 77 Colorado 63
Texas 81 Baylor 76

Big East
Providence 69 St. John's 61
Syracuse 73 Connecticut 66
West Virginia 68 Seton Hall 59
South Florida 65 DePaul 63
Marquette 74 Louisville 69

Big South
High Point 70 Charleston Southern 60
UNC-Asheville 73 Radford 71

Big Ten
Wisconsin 74 Penn State 57
Iowa 67 Michigan State 65
Indiana 69 Michigan 66

C-USA
Houston 71 UAB 66
Tulane 63 Marshall 58
SMU 70 East Carolina 53
Rice 74 UCF 72
Tulsa 67 UTEP 65

Independents
Savannah State 73 Allen 55
North Dakota State 71 Texas-Pan American 68
IPFW 67 N.J.I.T. 60
Utah Valley State 74 South Dakota State 57

Ivy
Yale 71 Harvard 64
Pennsylvania 70 Cornell 58
Brown 63 Dartmouth 59
Columbia 55 Princeton 50

Mid-Continent
UMKC 70 IUPUI 68
Centenary 69 Chicago State 64
Southern Utah 72 Oakland 67

MEAC
Florida A&M 69 UM-Eastern Shore 59
North Carolina A&T 65 Coppin State 62
Bethune-Cookman 63 Howard 59
Delaware State 62 Hampton 58
Morgan State 65 South Carolina State 64

Mountain West
San Diego State 75 Wyoming 70
Air Force 69 Colorado State 57
UNLV 70 Utah 64
New Mexico 73 TCU 63

NEC
Quinnipiac 69 Long Island 67
Central Connecticut State 74 Fairleigh Dickinson 66
Robert Morris 73 St. Francis ( NY ) 65
Monmouth 68 Mt. Saint Mary's 64
St. Francis ( PA ) 66 Wagner 63

Pac-10
Cal 68 Oregon State 55

Patriot
Navy 64 Army 60

SEC
LSU 68 Mississippi State 63
Tennessee 74 South Carolina 70
Georgia 71 Auburn 68

Southern
Furman 65 Citadel 58
Charleston 71 Wofford 63
Davidson 76 Western Carolina 66

Southland
SE Louisiana 69 Nicholls State 66
McNeese State 64 Central Arkansas 59
Texas State 74 UT-San Antonio 71

SWAC
Alabama State 61 Southern 57
Jackson State 74 Grambling State 69
Mississippi Valley State 67 Prairie View A&M 58
Texas Southern 66 Arkansas-Pine Bluff 60
Alcorn State 67 Alabama A&M 65

Sun Belt
UL Monroe 73 Arkansas State 71
New Orleans 75 Florida Atlantic 74
North Texas 74 Arkansas-Little Rock 68
Western Kentucky 76 Troy 67
UL Lafayette 68 Denver 59

WCC
Santa Clara 73 San Diego 63
Loyola Marymount 76 Pepperdine 70

NCAA Tourney and NIT Bracket Projections ( Feb 12th )

2007-02-15T23:10:00.000-05:00

Click on the images for enlarged views.

NCAA Tournament
Last Five In: Arkansas, Drexel, Kansas State, Purdue, Maryland

Last Five Out: Georgia, Illinois, Michigan State, Texas Tech, Ole Miss

NIT

Last Five In: Dayton, Missouri, Cal, Santa Clara, Long Beach State

Last Five Out: George Washington, Utah State, Nebraska, Houston, Western Kentucky

Predictions for Feb 16th

2007-02-15T23:02:00.000-05:00

I've been extra busy these past few days so please forgive me for not getting yesterday's predictions up.

Record: 313 - 140 ( 23 - 21 GOTD )

Games of the day

#1. Winthrop at Missouri State

Winthrop 72 Missouri State 69

Bracket Busters
Boise State 74 Albany 70

A-Sun
Jacksonville 67 Mercer 63

Ivy
Pennsylvania 66 Columbia 54
Brown 64 Harvard 61
Cornell 53 Princeton 47
Yale 59 Dartmouth 50

Predictions for Feb 14th

2007-02-14T13:26:00.000-05:00

Record: 270 - 112 ( 22 - 17 GOTD )

Games of the day

#1. Duke at Boston College

Boston College 73 Duke 67

#2. Washington State at Washington

Washington 68 Washington State 67

#3. LSU at Ole Miss

Ole Miss 70 LSU 64

#4. Alabama at Florida

Alabama 74 Florida 72

#5. Long Beach State at CSU-Fullerton

CSU-Fullerton 81 Long Beach State 79

AEC
Vermont 69 Maine 64

A-10
George Washington 75 St. Joseph's 73
Temple 92 La Salle 78
Rhode Island 66 St. Louis 63
Duquesne 84 Richmond 76

ACC
North Carolina State 67 Maryland 64
Clemson 76 Wake Forest 67

Big 12
Missouri 74 Baylor 65
Kansas 89 Colorado 68

Big East
South Florida 72 Syracuse 70
Connecticut 65 Seton Hall 57
Marquette 68 DePaul 64
Villanova 75 Cincinnati 62

Big Sky
Weber State 77 Montana 71
Montana State 78 Sacramento State 74

Big South
Winthrop 78 Charleston Southern 57
High Point 72 UNC-Asheville 64
VMI 104 Radford 96

Big Ten
Ohio State 70 Penn State 53
Wisconsin 74 Minnesota 57
Iowa 67 Northwestern 54

Big West
UC Riverside 68 UC Irvine 65
Cal Poly 71 UC-Santa Barbara 69
CSU-Northridge 73 UC Davis 60

CAA
Virginia Commonwealth 67 UNC-Wilmington 57
Towson 69 James Madison 55
Northeastern 72 Georgia State 63
Drexel 71 William & Mary 61
George Mason 68 Delaware 62

C-USA
Marshall 60 SMU 54
Southern Miss 70 East Carolina 63
Houston 77 South Alabama 75
UAB 66 Rice 61
Central Florida 71 Tulane 68
Memphis 75 Tulsa 56

Horizon
Wright State 77 Cleveland State 59
Youngstown State 67 Detroit 62
Illinois-Chicago 73 UW-Green Bay 69
Loyola ( IL ) 72 UW-Milwaukee 66

MAAC
Loyola ( MD ) 77 Rider 74
Iona 60 St. Peter's 57
Fairfield 69 Siena 68
Marist 80 Manhattan 75

MAC
Western Michigan 73 Central Michigan 70
Kent State 65 Miami U. 59

MVC
Indiana State 68 Illinois State 66
Wichita State 74 Drake 73
Bradley 76 Evansville 71

Mountain West
BYU 75 New Mexico 56
Air Force 68 Utah 52

OVC
Murray State 67 Tennessee State 56

Patriot
Colgate 54 Lehigh 51
Holy Cross 68 Navy 56
Bucknell 67 Lafayette 55
American 60 Army 54

SEC
Georgia 83 Kennesaw State 61
Vanderbilt 75 South Carolina 64
Mississippi State 71 Arkansas 69

Southern
UNC-Greensboro 75 Western Carolina 64
Appalachian State 76 Chattanooga 63

Southland
Northwestern State 71 McNeese State 63
Sam Houston State 70 Stephen F. Austin 59

Sun Belt
Western Kentucky 82 Florida Atlantic 71

WAC
Louisiana Tech 63 Idaho 54
Utah State 69 Hawaii 61
Nevada 79 San Jose State 58

Predictions for Feb 13th

2007-02-13T02:38:00.000-05:00

Record: 254 - 101 ( 20 - 14 GOTD )

Games of the day
I may not be able to get back in time to do a full preview for each of my GOTD picks. For now, I'll just leave the score predictions.

Update* I wasn't able to get back to do the previews so, unfortunately, only the scores will have to do for tonight. It wasn't like you missed anything, though, with 3 incorrect picks.

#1. Kentucky at Tennessee

Tennessee 75 Kentucky 71

#2. Southern Illinois at Missouri State

Missouri State 70 Southern Illinois 68

#3. UNLV at San Diego State

San Diego State 77 UNLV 75

#4. Hofstra at Old Dominion

Hofstra 69 Old Dominion 66

#5. Virginia Tech at North Carolina

North Carolina 80 Virginia Tech 66

A-10
Charlotte 77 UL-Lafayette 71

ACC
Virginia 89 Longwood 57
Florida State 75 Georgia Tech 69

A-Sun
Stetson 69 Savannah State 57

Big 12
Texas A&M 68 Texas Tech 60
Oklahoma 70 Iowa State 65
Kansas State 68 Nebraska 63

Big Ten
Michigan State 66 Michigan 57

Horizon
Butler 81 Florida Gulf Coast 54

Ivy
Pennsylvania 65 Princeton 47

MAAC
Niagara 78 Canisius 75

MAC
Akron 74 Ohio 66
Buffalo 68 Bowling Green 64
Toledo 73 Eastern Michigan 61
Northern Illinois 68 Ball State 60

MVC
Creighton 71 Northern Iowa 58

Mountain West
Colorado State 75 TCU 62

OVC
Morehead State 69 Jacksonville State 63
Samford 61 Eastern Kentucky 57
SE Missouri State 71 Eastern Illinois 69
Tennessee Tech 77 UT-Martin 67

WAC
Boise State 85 Montana-Western 58

Predictions for Feb 12th

2007-02-12T02:25:00.000-05:00

Record: 241 - 86 ( 18 - 13 GOTD )

Games of the day

#1. Oklahoma State at Texas
Most everybody has now heard about the 3 OT classic between these two teams a little under a month ago. Oklahoma State has been poor on the road in the Big 12 going 0-4. Texas is strong at home, having lost there only once this season. Mario Boggan continues playing extremely well, but guards JamesOn Curry, Terrel Harris, and Byron Eaton have seen their shooting stroke go cold over the past few games. In their recent road loss to Oklahoma, those three shot a combined 14-35 from the field with an 8:10 A/TO ratio. They really have to step up to have a chance tonight against Texas. Combine that with their largly poor defensive effort on the road as well and I'm not seeing how they can stop the three-headed offensive machine that is Durant, A.J. Abrams, and D.J. Augustin. Everybody talks about Durant, for good reason, but how about the play of freshman PG Augustin? He's averaging 14 ppg and 7.5 apg in Big 12 play. Texas' offense is humming right now and I don't see the Cowboys leaving Austin with a win.

Texas 81 Oklahoma State 75

#2. West Virginia at Georgetown
West Virginia, fresh off their home win over Darren Collison-less UCLA, have now probably secured themselves a tournament bid. However, a win at Georgetown would elevate that bid even more. It won't be easy, as the Hoyas are on a roll having won seven straight games to put themselves firmly in second place behind Pitt. When matched up against teams with good big men, WVU usually struggles on the glass and gets pushed around on the inside. Unfortunately for them, they probably play the biggest team in the Big East tonight with 6'9 Jeff Green and 7'2 Roy Hibbert suiting up for Georgetown. That's not even mentioning their freshman "wing" DaJuan Summers who stands at 6'8 and also can drain threes. WVU has a couple of 7 footers themselves, but they aren't nearly as athletic or as good as GU's big men. I figure it'll be a close, defensive game before Georgetown pulls away in the second half.

Georgetown 64 West Virginia 55

#3. Santa Clara at Gonzaga
This will be Gonzaga's second game without Josh Heytvelt, who was suspended on Saturday afternoon before their game against St. Mary's. It wasn't a factor against the struggling Gaels as they pulled away for a 60-49 win. They'll be missing him tonight against Santa Clara who possess 6'11 230 lb C Sean Denison and 6'11 320 lb John Bryant. They also have 7' C Josh Higgins who can provide solid minutes off the bench. Replacing him as the lead forward will be foul machine Sean Mallon. Abdullahi Kuso will likely remain in the starting lineup after joining it for the first time against St. Mary's. Unfortunately, Kuso probably picks up even more fouls than Mallon does as he's been averaging a foul every 4.5 minutes. If Gonzaga gets into foul trouble tonight, it might be disaster. The good news for the Zags is they are far superior to SC in guard play and have the best homecourt advantage in the WCC. Atleast two of their many guards ( Micah Downs, Derek Raivio, Jeremy Pargo and Matt Bouldin ) need to step up and get hot for Gonzaga to win tonight. I think they will.

Gonzaga 65 Santa Clara 61

Big East
Pittsburgh 70 Louisville 60

Big South
Libery 74 Coastal Carolina 69

MEAC
Florida A&M 73 North Carolina A&T 70
South Carolina State 61 Bethune-Cookman 53
Delaware State 65 UM-ES 44
Morgan State 75 Norfolk State 71
Hampton 68 Coppin State 64

NEC
Sacred Heart 84 Central Connecticut State 83
Monmouth 67 Fairleigh Dickinson 64

OVC
Austin Peay 79 Tennessee State 64

Southern
Furman 69 Georgia Southern 63
Davidson 78 Charleston 76
Wofford 62 Citadel 57
Chattanooga 66 Western Carolina 63
UNC-Greensboro 70 Elon 57

Southland
Stephen F. Austin 69 Northwestern State 65

SWAC
Mississippi Valley State 74 Southern 59
Jackson State 78 Prairie View A&M 63
Arkansas-Pine Bluff 70 Alcorn State 68
Winston-Salem State 67 Alabama A&M 66
Grambling State 69 Texas Southern 67

WAC
Hawaii 72 New Mexico State 68

WCC
San Diego 78 Pepperdine 72
St. Mary's 67 Portland 63
Loyola Marymount 77 San Francisco 76

Predictions for Feb 11th

2007-02-11T02:56:00.000-05:00

I'll be putting my weekly bracket projection up by tomorrow afternoon.

Record: 229 - 76 ( 16 - 11 GOTD )

Games of the day

#1. Duke at Maryland
Duke’s current three game losing streak makes it just the 15th time in the last 27 years that a Coach K team has lost more than two in a row. After dropping a home game to Virginia last week, Maryland really, really needs to get this one. Both teams play solid defense as they're first and second, respectively, in the ACC in FG% defense. This'll probably be one of your average Duke games where it goes back and forth until the final minute and they get an improbable wide open shot to win the game at the buzzer. This time, like in their loss to Virginia, they miss.

Maryland 69 Duke 68

#2. Vermont at Albany
This game should decide the AEC regular season title one way or another. Vermont, having won 13 of their last 14 games, possess a one game lead in the conference loss column over Albany. They've already beaten the Great Danes earlier this year as well, 75-66, so a UVM win today would likely wrap up the AEC title. It won't come easy, however, because Albany is 10-1 at home including being undefeated there in America East play. Vermont is also missing key forward Joe Trapani and doesn't expect him back until later this month. Albany wins and makes this conference race for the crown last until the final week of the AEC regular season.

Albany 73 Vermont 69

#3. Stanford at Washington
Washington has a tough mountain to climb if they want to make it into the tournament as six of the next seven teams they play are in the AP Top 25. It gives them a chance to make an impression to the tourney committee or fall flat on their faces. I think they'll end up somewhere in between. Stanford has a tough remaining schedule as well but have seemingly done enough to get in at the moment.

Washington 79 Stanford 76

#4. Boston College at Florida State
Florida State barely lost earlier this season to BC on the road by falling on a buzzer beater 3 pointer. FSU is also very good at home this season, but Boston College is one of the hottest teams in the ACC with POY candidate Jared Dudley leading the way. Al Thornton takes the Noles to victory and, in the process, keeps moving FSU up the tourney seeding ladder.

Florida State 74 Boston College 70

AEC
Boston U. 66 New Hampshire 59
Maine 65 Binghamton 62
Stony Brook 62 Hartford 60

A-10
Rhode Island 109 Duquesne 106
UMass 84 Temple 79

ACC
Georgia Tech 72 Connecticut 62

Big East
Syracuse 73 St. John's 59

MAAC
Rider 71 Canisius 64
Siena 65 St. Peter's 59
Manhattan 78 Niagara 74
Marist 77 Iona 62
Loyola ( MD ) 74 Fairfield 71

MAC
Kent State 66 Western Michigan 64

MVC
Wichita State 74 Illinois State 69
Evansville 69 Indiana State 66

NEC
St. Francis ( NY ) 75 Long Island 72

Patriot
American 54 Colgate 50

Sun Belt
South Alabama 79 Arkansas State 68

Bracket Projection ( Feb 6th )

2007-02-09T21:58:00.000-05:00

I'll be doing an updated projection every Sunday evening/Monday morning from here on out. Click on the image for an enlarged view.

Last Five In: Georgia, Arkansas, Kansas State, Texas Tech, Maryland
Last Five Out: Illinois, BYU, Georgia Tech, New Mexico State, Louisville

Predictions for Feb 10th

2007-02-09T21:55:00.000-05:00

Record: 124 - 48 ( 12-7 GOTD )

Games of the day

#1. Florida at Kentucky
Florida usually plays to the occaison. They better today. Florida's still undefeated in SEC play while Kentucky stands at 7-2. Kentucky's got the Rupp advantage and desperately wants to show they're still a power in the SEC East this year. What's missing is the talent. After Morris, Bradley, and Crawford walk onto the court, the rest just look like spare parts that'd be walk ons on different UK teams. Freshman wing Jodie Meeks has been playing very well of late, but he's the only guy off the bench that I can see doing anything offensively against the Gators. Bobby Perry, Sheray Thomas, and "Woo" Obrzut? No thank you. Freshman PF Perry Stevenson couldn't catch an entry pass to save his life and has little offensive game to speak of, but at least he can play some defense. Freshman "point guard" Derrick Jasper's another whose offense hasn't even come close to developing yet, though his defense on Brewer or Green may be invaluable.

If Kentucky had the name "Ole Miss" on their uniform, would anybody really expect them to beat Florida today? Florida's just got way too much talent with four future pros in the starting lineup and more coming off the bench against Kentucky's...Bobby Perry?

Florida 73 Kentucky 69

#2. Marquette at Georgetown
Marquette, led by the best guard trio in the Big East, tries to push tempo and utilizes only one "true back to the basket" type big man in Ousmane Barro. On the other hand, Georgetown runs the Princeton style offense and wouldn't mind if both teams ended up with under 100 possessions total. Big men 7'2 278 C Roy Hibbert and 6'9 235 F Jeff Green lead the way for the Hoyas. Marquette comes into the game having won 8 in a row, including four on the road, and Georgetown also comes in with a six game winning streak.

As I mentioned earlier, Marquette only uses one true big man. Well, Georgetown only uses two guards the entire game. It's going to be interesting to see which team ends up at a matchup disadvantage. Georgetown is good in transition defense and play an excruciating pace of basketball that might frustrate the Golden Eagles. In the end though, Marquette just has too much around the perimeter. Georgetown doesn't have one single guard that's as good as Marquette's Dominic James, Jerel McNeal, and Wesley Matthews. Barro has also been playing really well on the defensive end and is big enough to matchup well with Hibbert.

Marquette 68 Georgetown 65

#3. Arizona at Oregon
Arizona's only 2-4 on the road and struggled with Oregon Stat e in their previous game on Thursday. They played a back and forth game with little defense against the Ducks in mid-January before finally succumbing to Aaron Brooks' last second bank shot. Oregon has more depth, even more scoring options, and the homecourt advantage. I don't see how they lose.

Oregon 85 Arizona 77

#4. Vanderbilt at Tennessee
Vanderbilt got their hot streak started by winning on a buzzer beater at home over the Vols by one. In Tennessee's last game, their first getting Lofton back in four games, against LSU at home they weren't particularly impressive. Their press didn't really force guardless LSU into that many bad decisions. Really, LSU, who isn't exactly known for ball handling this year, fared pretty well against the press. If LSU can do decently against it, Vanderbilt, who starts four guards, should excel in an up tempo game. Tennessee's defense has been horrid over the past month, but it's always tough to win in Thompson-Boling Arena ( The Summit, is that emasculating? ) - particularly under Bruce Pearl. In fact, they're undefeated there so far this year.

It's all up to the guards in this one as there are only two big men that won't end up sneaking out to the perimeter ( Duke Crews for UT and Ted Skuchas for Vandy ). I know it doesn't matter if Lofton's guarded or not, but Shan Foster or Derrick Byars for VU can certainly shadow him on defense very well. On offense, I think Foster and Byars can also do as they please as UT doesn't have anybody on defense that can match up well with either one - except maybe Bradshaw and Josh Tabb. Unfortunately for the Vols, they're both a liability on the offensive end. Vandy has too much firepower as Lofton's still hobbled a little bit by his ankle injury.

Vanderbilt 85 Tennesseee 81

#5. Virginia at Virginia Tech
After starting so well in ACC play, the Hokies have been blown out in consecutive games by N.C. State and BC. The opposite's true for Virginia as they're just now playing their best basketball of the year. They don't have any problem playing on the road either, having won at Clemson, N.C. State, and Maryland during their current seven game winning streak.

Virginia's got the offense with their guards and VT's got the defense ( though not recently ). The Hokies have a tough remaining schedule left and can't afford to go back on the bubble with a loss today. They'll get a much needed win before their rematch with UNC on Tuesday.

Virginia Tech 76 Virginia 72

#6. Creighton at Southern Illinois
SIU is undefeated at home, play the most ferocious defense in the Missouri Valley, and beat Creighton in Omaha earlier this year by a point. You would think that all adds up to a win for SIU. And you'd be right. I'm not sure, even with POY candidate Nate Funk, the Bluejays can win today. Creighton has more a lot more meat in the paint with Anthony Tolliver/Dane Watts and that's the only way I can see them exploiting SIU's defense. It may not matter with defensive specialist Randal Falker on one of them.

Southern Illinois 63 Creighton 56

#7. VCU at Old Dominion
The Monarchs of ODU come in as one of the hottest teams in CAA play having won six in a row including two tough road games at Drexel and George Mason. Their last loss on January 20th was actually at the hands of VCU by 5 on the road. They've been doing it with great defense and haven't allowed a team to shoot over 39% in four out of their last six games. VCU has been very good on the road having won 8 of 9, butI think Old Dominion's too good at home and their smothering defense forces VCU, not known as a good shooting team this year anyways, into a low shooting percentage in a close game.

Old Dominion 70 VCU 65

#8. UCLA at West Virginia
West Virginia ran into a brick wall defense in their last game against Pitt at home. Unfortunately for them, they face another. For UCLA, it all starts on defense with superb PG Darren Collison. Though he may not play in today's game, the Bruins still have plenty of other weapons on offense and defense to beat WVU. The Mountaineers have nothing that can match up with UCLA bigs Luc Richard Mbah a Moute and Lorenzo Mata.

UCLA 68 West Virginia 59

#9. Alabama at Ole Miss
Alabama played badly once again in their last game against Mississippi State but keeps coming away with wins. They had no prayer of stopping Jamont Gordon, who finished with 27 points and 9 boards, continued to give up wide open 3s, and have no prayer of beating Ole Miss in the Tad Pad if their defense doesn't improve. Well, unless Steele can play like he's taking the last shot for the win the whole game. Fortunately for Alabama, Ole Miss doesn't have a Jamont Gordon. Unforuntately for Alabama, their three leading scorers can all nail threes. That's always been a huge problem for Alabama - particularly on the road. At least Brandon Hollinger, the spark plug point guard that's replaced Mykal Riley in the lineup for defensive purposes, matches up much better against Ole Miss than he did against MSU. In the end though, it probably won't matter as Todd Abernethy or Clarence Sanders or Bam Doyne or some walk on will nail 10+ threes today. I can't pick Alabama on the road until they can show me just once they can play some solid defense, the LSU games withstanding.

Ole Miss 84 Alabama 73

A-10
Dayton 74 St. Bonaventure 60
St. Joseph's 68 La Salle 61
Fordham 74 Charlotte 69
George Washington 76 Xavier 67

ACC
North Carolina 93 Wake Forest 67
N.C. State 73 Miami 67

A-Sun
Campbell 79 Mercer 74
East Tennessee State 76 North Florida 62
Jacksonville 70 Kennesaw State 61
Gardner-Webb 74 Stetson 69

Big 12
Texas 81 Iowa State 64
Kansas 79 Missouri 70
Oklahoma 73 Baylor 66
Oklahoma State 77 Texas Tech 67
Kansas State 84 Colorado 72
Texas A&M 66 Nebraska 59

Big East
Villanova 76 Seton Hall 67
Louisville 69 South Florida 61
Rutgers 63 Cincinnati 60
Pittsburgh 72 Providence 59

Big Sky
Northern Arizona 77 Idaho State 73
Montana 76 Montana State 75
Eastern Washington 88 Portland State 83

Big South
VMI 109 UNC-Asheville 98
Liberty 79 Charleston Southern 64
Winthrop 80 Radford 61
High Point 73 Coastal Carolina 68

Big Ten
Ohio State 75 Purdue 62
Indiana 73 Illinois 64
Wisconsin 76 Iowa 71
Northwestern 61 Penn State 59
Michigan 75 Minnesota 58

Big West
Cal Poly 75 UC Irvine 69
Pacific 77 UC Riverside 65
Long Beach State 74 UC-Santa Barbara 72
CSU-Fullerton 87 CSU-Northridge 83

CAA
Towson 83 Georgia State 68
Drexel 79 Delaware 58
Hofstra 72 George Mason 68
UNC-Wilmington 67 William & Mary 65
Northeastern 67 James Madison 61

C-USA
UCF 73 Marshall 60
Southern Miss 67 Tulsa 65
UAB 77 UTEP 70
Memphis 86 Tulane 67
SMU 70 Rice 66
Houston 80 East Carolina 63

Horizon
Detroit 73 Illinois-Chicago 65
Butler 72 Wright State 69
Loyola ( IL ) 76 Wisconsin-Green Bay 74

Independents
North Dakota State 79 N.J.I.T 63
Utah Valley State 81 Texas-Pan American 72
Chicago State 83 East-West University 56
IPFW 77 South Dakota State 62
Winston-Salem State 94 Columbia Union 71

Ivy
Columbia 66 Brown 61
Cornell 72 Yale 68
Penn 84 Harvard 73
Princeton 56 Dartmouth 50

MAC
Bowling Green 76 Eastern Michigan 66
Ohio 79 Northern Illinois 59
Miami U. 61 Ball State 53
Buffalo 72 Central Michigan 64
Akron 76 Toledo 71

Mid-Continent
Oakland 78 Valparaiso 69
IUPUI 70 Western Illinois 63
UMKC 73 Centenary 71
Oral Roberts 75 Southern Utah 66

MEAC
Coppin State 69 Norfolk State 67
North Carolina A&T 73 Bethune-Cookman 58
Morgan State 68 Hampton 65
Florida A&M 71 South Carolina State 70
Delaware State 69 Howard 52

MVC
Bradley 75 Drake 69
Missouri State 74 Northern Iowa 67

Mountain West
San Diego State 80 Colorado State 78
Air Force 66 New Mexico 62
BYU 74 TCU 65
UNLV 81 Wyoming 72

NEC
Central Connecticut State 68 Quinnipiac 61
Sacred Heart 86 Wagner 81
Robert Morris 85 Mt. Saint Mary's 83

OVC
Samford 63 Austin Peay 58
Eastern Kentucky 77 SE Missouri State 73
Murray State 69 Morehead State 62
Tennessee Tech 79 Tennessee State 69
UT-Martin 68 Eastern Illinois 65

Pac-10
Washington State 70 California 59
Arizona State 59 Oregon State 55

Patriot
Navy 66 Lafayette 59
Lehigh 64 Army 57

SEC
LSU 68 Arkansas 64
Mississippi State 75 Auburn 70
Georiga 73 South Carolina 69

Southern
Appalachian State 81 Wofford 72
Furman 67 Elon 57
Western Carolina 68 Georgia Southern 64
Charleston 77 UNC-Greensboro 75
Chattanooga 67 Citadel 58

Southland
Texas A&M CC 83 SE Louisiana 76
McNeese State 70 UT-Arlington 64
Nicholls State 75 UT-San Antonio 71
Sam Houston State 71 Central Arkansas 54
Lamar 86 Texas State 77

SWAC
Arkansas-Pine Bluff 56 Southern 52
Alabama State 63 Alabama A&M 58
Jackson State 72 Texas Southern 61
Grambling State 64 Prairie View A&M 55
Mississippi Valley State 67 Alcorn State 61

Sun Belt
Western Kentucky 79 Middle Tennessee State 68
Louisiana Monroe 83 North Texas 80
Florida Atlantic 77 FIU 64
UA-Little Rock 73 Troy 68
New Orleans 77 Denver 65

WCC
San Diego 77 Loyola Marymount 73
Gonzaga 80 St. Mary's 67
San Francisco 89 Pepperdine 76
Santa Clara 72 Portland 65

WAC
Boise State 65 San Jose State 58
New Mexico State 76 Fresno State 74
Utah State 75 Idaho 61
Hawaii 73 Louisiana Tech 58

Looking back at Feb 8th

2007-02-09T12:00:00.000-05:00

DePaul 67 Notre Dame 66
I was certainly wrong in my prediction that DePaul's loose 3 point defense would be their undoing. Notre Dame only shot 32% from behind the arc and Russell Carter was a paltry 4-12 ( 1 - 7 3PT ). Notre Dame's really strugging on the road but should have two upcoming road wins at BE cellar dwellers Rutgers and Cincy. DePaul's best bet is to make the NIT which would give them a nice boost going into next year with emerging stud big man Wilson Chandler returning.

Drexel 95 Hofstra 87 ( OT )
Once again, another wrong prediction by me. Hofstra's trio of guards ( Stokes, Rivera, Agudio ) certainly did enough to win combining for 62 points, 15 boards, and 10 assists but they let the game slip away in the second half. This probably ends Hofstra's chances for an at large berth. Drexel really needs a win at Creighton on Bracket Buster Saturday to have a chance.

Jacksonville State 72 Tennessee Tech 71
This one really surprised me. Tennessee Tech has one of the best backcourts and is one of the better teams in the OVC while the Gamecocks are one of the worst ( they lost to Michigan Tech at home, guys ). Will Ginn hit a layup with 11 seconds to go to give State the victory.

UL Monroe 82 Middle Tennessee State 76
It's amazing what coach Orlando Early ( Alabama still hasn't gotten somebody to replace his coaching abilities ) is doing at UL Monroe considering they were routinely one of the worst teams in the country year in and year out before he got there. Now they're in first place in the Sun Belt Western Division and almost have six players averging in double figures. Juco transfer Gerard Jackson was finally cleared to play late last month and has added even more scoring punch to this team. If they don't make the tournament this year, they should certainly be at the top of the Sun Belt list the next with every key player returning.

Drake 67 Northern Iowa 59
It's safe to say NIU is done. Their cold shooting woes continue and with a brutal schedule ahead, the best I can see them finishing is 18-12. It's NIT time for them.

Western Illinois 64 Oakland 63
Oakland picked a bad time to lose at home to the absolute worst team in the Mid-Continent conference. They were one game back in the standings of Oral Roberts with a return game at home to end the regular season. That game certainly doesn't look to be as meaningful after this egg.

Also, since I didn't do a look back for Feb 7th, check out this Derrick Jasper dunk against South Carolina.

Predictions for Feb 9th

2007-02-09T01:36:00.000-05:00

Record: 117 - 44 ( 11-6 GOTD )

Games of the day

Holy Cross at Bucknell

The top two teams in the Patriot League meet in what should decide the regular season championship. Holy Cross is undefeated in league play and in the process gave Bucknell their only loss in conference on January 12th, 65-60. The Bison have recovered nicely from their early season struggles that included a loss to Central Arkansas, who is playing their first year in Division 1. These teams are very evenly matched and I see home court advantage being the deciding factor.

Bucknell 66 Holy Cross 64

Belmont at Lipscomb

Another matchup of two of the top contenders in their league. Like the Drexel - Hofstra game last night, there is definitely a contrast in size in this one. Belmont is led by do-it-all guard Justin Hare, but they have something Lipscomb doesn't - big men. Joining Hare, they also have 6'10 255 Boomer Herndon, a transfer from Tennessee, and 6'10 210 Andrew Preston. However, that doesn't mean they're any good at rebounding the ball. In their previous meeting, a 55-50 loss, little Lipscomb actually outrebounded the Bruins, including 15 offensive boards. How they managed to lose when the Bisons shot 3-26 from the arc, I'll never know.

Well if they can't rebound with that size or match Lipscomb's fantastic guard trio ( Eddie Ard, Brian Fisk, and Trey Williams ), how will they win? Defense. That's something they are great at as they're top 40 nationally in FG%, 3PT FG%, and 2PT FG% defense. My prediction is Belmont and Lipscomb split the season series by winning on each other's home court and the Bruins move exactly one game back of East Tennessee State in the standings.

Belmont 64 Lipscomb 61

Ivy
Yale 68 Columbia 63
Penn 81 Dartmouth 64
Cornell 64 Brown 57
Harvard 61 Princeton 50

MAAC
Niagara 74 St. Peter's 60
Siena 66 Iona 63
Manhattan 74 Rider 72
Loyola ( MD ) 79 Canisius 73

NEC
Fairleigh Dickinson 72 St. Francis ( NY ) 61

Predictions for Feb 8th

2007-02-08T00:23:00.000-05:00

Record: 81 - 25 ( 9-4 GOTD )

Games of the day

Notre Dame at DePaul
The Blue Demons have been quite competitive at home while Notre Dame continues to struggle mightily on the road, minus their win over disappointing Syracuse on Jan 30th. Since that win though, they've dropped two winnable games at St. John's and South Florida. Notre Dame doesn't match up well with athletic teams that play tight man to man so common sense would tell you they'd drop another road game to a team like DePaul. However, DePaul is one of the worst teams in the country guarding against the 3 ( and the 14th worst in the Big East ). I think Notre Dame shoots themselves to a win like in their aforementioned game against the Orange in the Carrier Dome.

Notre Dame 74 DePaul 69

Drexel at Hofstra
A game that features two very different teams. Which will win out? Drexel's inside game represented by 6'9 220 C Frank Elegar ( 14.9 ppg, 6.9 rpg ) and 6'10 235 F Chaz Crawford ( 6.8 ppg, 9.5 rpg, 3.7 bpg ) or Hofstra's three headed guard trio in Loren Stokes, Antoine Agudio, and Carlos Rivera ( combined 52 ppg, 10.7 rpg, and 9.4 apg )?

Hofstra's undefeated at home with a couple of nice in-conference wins over VCU and Old Dominion. Drexel has been struggling as of late having lost three out of their last five home games. Both teams need wins to try to get into the tournament as an at large team. Hofstra's guard play will be too much in a well played, close game.

Hofstra 75 Drexel 68

Stanford at Washington State
These two teams are on fire lately - particularly Stanford, who has seemed to secure a tournament bid for themselves as of now. Wazzu is incredibly tough to beat at home with blowout wins over Washington and Gonzaga along with an OT win over Arizona. The Cardinal had an exciting win in overtime over the Cougars last time they met this year at Stanford.

I expect the same back and forth game tonight, but you've got to go with the home team in this one. However, all bets are off if Washington State has another second half like they did against Arizona State this past Saturday. Seriously, 12 points.

Washington State 76 Stanford 72

Western Kentucky at South Alabama
Western Kentucky, who the media picked to have preseason POY Courtney Lee and to finish first in the Sun Belt , have been dropping a lot of road games recently. That includes losses to middle of the road SBC teams like UA-Little Rock ( without Lee ), Arkansas State, and North Texas. On the other side of things, South Alabama is headed in a different direction, having won 10 in a row. They've also taken over possession of first place in the process which is a huge surprise considering they lost 7 key players off their tournament team from a year ago. The Jaguars are a much different team since their 22 point loss at WKU earlier this season and I can't see them dropping this game.

South Alabama 74 Western Kentucky 63

AEC
Hartford 68 New Hampshire 65
Boston U. 59 Binghamton 53
Vermont 84 UM-BC 61

A-10
Massachusetts 81 Rhode Island 74

A-Sun
East Tennessee State 71 Jacksonville 68
Stetson 75 Campbell 70
Mercer 64 Gardner-Webb 55
Kennesaw State 78 North Florida 64

Big Sky
Montana State 79 Sacramento State 72
Idaho State 66 Northern Colorado 57
Portland State 74 Weber State 68

Big West
Long Beach State 79 Cal Poly 77
Cal State Fullerton 78 Pacific 72
UC Santa Barbara 73 UC Irvine 68
Cal State Northridge 74 UC Riverside 63

CAA
Virginia Commonwealth 73 George Mason 62

C-USA
Memphis 82 UAB 65

Independents
North Dakota State 80 IPFW 66
N.J.I.T. 58 South Dakota State 55

Horizon
Butler 74 Cleveland State 57
Wisconsin-Green Bay 71 Youngstown State 65

MAAC
Marist 78 Fairfield 69

Mid-Continent
Valparaiso 69 IUPUI 66
Oakland 83 Western Illinois 59
Southern Utah 65 Centenary 57
Oral Roberts 79 UMKC 65

MVC
Northern Iowa 70 Drake 60
Wichita State 73 Indiana State 64

NEC
Mt. Saint Mary's 79 St. Francis ( PA ) 64
Quinnipiac 81 Sacred Heart 75
Monmouth 78 Wagner 76

OVC
Tennessee Tech 81 Jacksonville State 64
Murray State 69 Eastern Kentucky 65
Austin Peay 80 Eastern Illinois 62
SE Missouri State 66 Morehead State 59

Pac-10
Oregon 76 Arizona State 55
Arizona 77 Oregon State 63
Washington 82 California 72

Southland
Northwestern State 82 Sam Houston State 79
UT-Arlington 76 Lamar 70
McNeese State 72 Texas State 65
SE Louisiana 69 UT-San Antonio 61
Texas A&M CC 81 Nicholls State 66

Sun Belt
FIU 68 Troy 62
North Texas 85 New Orleans 83
Louisiana Monroe 77 Middle Tennessee State 68
Arkansas State 75 UL-Lafayette 69
Denver 70 UA-Little Rock 66

WAC
San Jose State 74 Louisiana Tech 70
Nevada 80 Fresno State 72

Predictions for Feb 7th

2007-02-07T10:31:00.000-05:00

Record: 40 - 16 ( 2-2 GOTD )

Games of the day

North Carolina at Duke
I got sick of hearing about Duke - UNC around the time the season started. Even if I was gushing about this game, I still couldn't watch it in hi def because of the ESPN blackout in ACC markets. When do you think Lincoln Financial Sports ( always JP Sports to me ) will go HD? My guess is..never.

Since everybody else has analyzed this game to death, I probably don't have much to add. I'll just leave you with this video.

North Carolina 77 Duke 71

Florida State at Clemson
Toss a coin on this one. Clemson hasn't been playing well, but they were a shot clock malfunction away of taking Duke to OT and were blowing Virginia out over a week ago before collapsing at the end. FSU has obviously improved on the road as the year has gone on but Clemson HAS to have this win considering their tough schedule down the stretch. Go with the desperate team I say.

Clemson 71 Florida State 70

Kansas State at Kansas
Kansas has seemed to back bounce well after losses so far this season. After their home loss to Oral Roberts, they won in Las Vegas over Florida. After the bad DePaul loss, they came back home, beat USC, and thrashed Boston College by 18 ( and that was with Sean Williams ). I see the same thing happening tonight. Kansas won't mess around and the Wildcats will be put away early.

Kansas 83 Kansas State 71

Oklahoma State at Oklahoma
I'm absolutely shocked Doug Gottlieb is calling this game tonight. I wonder who he's rooting for.

Oklahoma State is 0-3 on the road so far in the Big 12 by a margin of 20 points a game. That included this past Saturday's blowout loss to the worst team in the league ( and maybe one of the worst in any BCS conference ) Colorado. OSU has also been getting beaten on the boards throughout Big 12 play and I think it continues tonight. Couple OU's rebounding proficiency ( top 40 in the country in all rebounding categories along with top 4 in the Big 12 ) and their mauling defense, I think Oklahoma will get the job done here. The Sooners really seem to be hitting their stride in Big 12 play in an attempt to get into bubble consideration.

Oklahoma 73 Oklahoma State 67

Georgetown at Louisville
Louisville's another team that can't afford to miss a big win at home considering they don't have, well, any particularly good wins yet. I'll take Georgetown's stifling defense, experience, and as of recently, dominating inside game to lead the Hoyas to a nice road win.

Georgetown 66 Louisville 60

Pittsburgh at West Virginia
West Virginia is, once again, another team that's on the edge of the tournament and the bubble right now. They have two crucial games coming up against Pitt and UCLA. If they want to get in, they're going to need to win one of those. Gray obviously poses a matchup problem for the 'Neers and it'll be interesting to see if they can stop him in any way.

WVU is undefeated at home this year; though the best team they've beaten is Villanova. They haven't faced anybody like Pitt at home this year but I don't believe Pitt will be involved in a more hostile environment the rest of the year than tonight in Morgantown. I'm sure Marquette fans will disagree with me on that one. This is much more of a need game for West Virginia and I think they pull off the upset.

West Virginia 76 Pitt 73

USC at UCLA
USC is one of the hottest teams in the country right now and came within a last second shot by Arron Afflalo of beating UCLA last month. Though I think it'll be close, I don't see a way USC can win at Pauley tonight.

UCLA 73 USC 64

Florida at Georgia
First time Florida slips up in the SEC? I think so. Georgia desperately needs this game to take themselves off the bubble and into the tournament. They've also been playing very well at home in SEC play with a blowout win over South Carolina and other wins against Vanderbilt, LSU, and Kentucky. For Georgia, their only true "big man" Takais Brown has been playing extremely well this past month. The problem is, they don't have two Browns to guard Horford and Noah. I really don't see Steve Newman, Dave Bliss, or Albert Jackson being able to stay with whoever Takais doesn't guard. My guess is they play zone which opens them up for even more problems. Green, Humphrey, Brewer, and Hodge can shoot over that zone and get them out of it like that. The good thing for Georgia, though, is even in a zone they can rebound very, very well with all of their athletic guards getting in on the action ( their guards contribute 18.6 rpg ).

With all of that being said, I still think Georgia pulls it out. Florida's due to drop an SEC game and Georgia's playing very well at home in SEC play. Brown has an official coming out party for Georgia and Stukes goes for 20. The 'Dawgs by 3.

Georgia 71 Florida 68

Mississippi State at Alabama
Which Alabama team will show up? Is it the team that showed up in Baton Rouge or is it the team that struggled to put away South Carolina until the final minute? The problem tonight for Alabama will be if Mississippi State can drain threes like almost every other team ( sans LSU ) in the SEC has done to the Tide. It's especially concerning for them considering State has six players that can all shoot it deep. Alonzo Gee and Mykal Riley ( Riley coming off the bench I assume ) really have to pick it up on defense tonight because one of them is going to have to guard Jamont Gordon. Why do I keep imagining him draining wide open 3s after a set screen or taking Gee off the dribble to the bucket with nobody sliding over for help defense? Thankfully for Alabama he's also a turnover machine averaging 4 a game.

On the other hand, Mississippi State is 1-6 on the road this year and I'm not sure who they have that can guard Davidson AND Hendrix. Charles Rhodes has been a huge disappointment for them so far this season and minus a game against Ole Miss over a week ago, he hasn't done anything in almost a month. If Rhodes gets in his usual foul trouble, I don't see Jarvis Varnado or Vernon Goodridge being near strong enough to guard Hendrix. This rivalry is almost always decided by less than a couple of buckets. Well, other than that one time. Hendrix goes for a double double and the Tide win by 7.

Alabama 70 Mississippi State 63

AEC
Albany 71 Maine 66

A-10
Dayton 72 Fordham 68
Temple 81 St. Bonaventure 65
Duquesne 106 La Salle 101
Xavier 64 St. Louis 59
Charlotte 77 Richmond 58

ACC
Boston College 80 Miami 70

Big East
St. John's 65 South Florida 61
Marquette 82 Rutgers 61

Big Sky
Montana 84 Sacramento State 66
Eastern Washington 85 Weber State 80

Big South
UNC-Asheville 75 Brevard College 44

Big Ten
Illinois 63 Northwestern 54
Iowa 74 Minnesota 67
Purdue 65 Michigan State 62
Wisconsin 69 Penn State 55

CAA
UNC-Wilmington 63 Delaware 61
Northeastern 78 Towson 72
Old Dominion 82 Georgia State 63
James Madison 64 William & Mary 59

C-USA
UCF 66 East Carolina 52
Houston 76 SMU 71
Tulane 73 UTEP 72
Tulsa 65 Marshall 58
Rice 74 Southern Miss 66

Horizon
Wright State 72 Illinois-Chicago 64
Loyola ( IL ) 67 Detroit 50

MAC
Akron 78 Central Michigan 57
Buffalo 68 Ball State 63
Miami U. 62 Eastern Michigan 60
Bowling Green 65 Northern Illinois 60

MVC
Creighton 80 Evansville 64
Southern Illinois 62 Bradley 53

Mountain West
Colorado State 70 Utah 66
UNLV 81 TCU 63

Patriot
Lafayette 60 Colgate 54
Lehigh 68 Navy 56

SEC
Kentucky 76 South Carolina 65
Arkansas 82 Auburn 63

Southland
Stephen F. Austin 72 Central Arkansas 61

WAC
Boise State 84 Idaho 55

Looking back at Feb 6th

2007-02-07T02:07:00.000-05:00

Some interesting scores:

Wake Forest 87 Winston Salem State 71
I'm just curious 1) how did the Rams stay with Wake so long 2) how terrible really is Wake this season 3) how did this team beat Georgia Tech? I guess that's what happens when 9 out of your top 11 in minutes played are freshmen or sophomores.

Georgia Tech 74 N.C. State 65
I'm not surprised Georgia Tech won as I thought this game was a toss up to begin with, but it was disappointing to see the Wolfpack blow such a big lead. Georgia Tech's transition defense was absolutely terrible in the first half but they really put the clamps down in the second half ( particularly on Atsur ). Crittenton clearly outmatched him this game and it's not a shock that Atsur et al wore down in the second half with only one sub available. I realize Horner left early with a nose injury, but man, this team really needs some depth. I'm sure J.J. Hickson might help out with that next year.

Missouri 77 Iowa State 55
I know Iowa State hasn't been playing well recently, but it was pretty surprising to see Mizzou absolutely blitz them like this at their own place - particularly with the Tigers not playing all that well themselves. When Mike Anderson gets his own players in place for his system, Missouri is going to be tough to beat.

Nebraska 61 Texas Tech 59
Nebraska is really improving under Sadler and Texas Tech's Charles Burgess was probably out of bounds when "saving" the ball, but still, how did this happen? This has got to put Tech out of the tournament for now with four straight losses and five out of their last seven.

Virginia 69 Maryland 65
Another huge win for Virginia. I can't believe how they pounded Maryland on the glass for a +16 rebound margin including 16 offensive rebounds. The Cavs may also have the easiest schedule left out of anybody in the ACC with their toughest game remaining at Virginia Tech. They seem to be just playing for a seed at this point. My question is, how did this team get blown out by Utah and struggle mightily versus Puerto Rico Mayaguez? I'm sure they'll never want to play in the Puerto Rico Shootout again. As for Maryland, they're in a world of hurt now with five really tough games upcoming. Another N.I.T if they can't get going. Out of my bracket projection they go unless they can bounce back and beat Duke this Sunday. Actually, I fully expect them to do it.

San Diego State 62 Air Force 41
I mean, I predicted SDSU to win but not like this. I do think people forget how talented this Aztec team is though and they're as good of a bet than anybody to win the conference tourney for the auto bid. The Falcons can still do more damage to their seeding with remaining games at New Mexico and UNLV along with a rematch with BYU to end the year at home.

Looking back at Feb 5th

2007-02-06T14:31:00.000-05:00

A few scores from yesterday that really surprised me:

Indiana State 59 Northern Iowa 46
Northern Iowa needed this win in the worst way to stay on the bubble and lost to maybe the coldest team in the MVC right now. They were crushed on the boards in this game and poor shooting continues to plague them.

Morgan State 54 Delaware State 40
A shocker for me. Delaware State had been rolling through the MEAC and Morgan State's coach Todd Bozeman just had a run in with some ham sandwiches he didn't seem to enjoy. This loss could be the difference between a guaranteed 16 seed or the play-in game.

Loyola Marymount 67 Gonzaga 61
I guess I shouldn't be as shocked by this since LMU is getting much healthier as evidenced by their big win at Santa Clara over a week ago. I still think Gonzaga's in even if they don't win the WCC tourney. They can't afford too many more of these though.

Predictions for Feb 6th

2007-02-05T23:42:00.000-05:00

Games of the day

North Carolina State at Georgia Tech
N.C. State is on fire after Atsur's return with a blowout win at Virginia Tech and close victory over UNC in the past week. If they could pick up another big road win, it'll slide them into the bubble talk while Georgia Tech would be dead in the water for now. But even with Atsur back, they still really only go 7 deep and that's being nice. Tech has guarded the perimeter fairly well over the past month which is always key against the 'Pack but their big men have been getting into big time foul trouble. We'll see if N.C. State can exploit that and if Crittenton can contain Atsur ( and actually score himself considering how hit or miss he's been in ACC play ). I say N.C. State goes to the free throw line 20+ times and whoever Dickey ends up guarding along the wing goes off in a really close game.

North Carolina State 74 Georgia Tech 72

Virginia at Maryland
Can Virginia's hot streak continue? The Terps have been historically dominant at home and other than a bad loss to Miami, they've been perfect there so far this year. Maryland has the personnel to guard Virginia's big three in Diane, Singletary, and Reynolds. I'd also take my chances with Osby, Ibekwe, and Gist in the paint over Cain and Pettinella/Mikalauskas although Cain was big time in their earlier win over Maryland. Virginia shot 49! free throws at home that proved to be the difference against Maryland a couple of weeks ago, but I don't see anything like that happening at the Comcast Center. Maryland picks up a much needed win and continues to hold serve at home.

Maryland 86 Virginia 78

Air Force at San Diego State
Air Force hasn't been great on the road in the MWC so far going 2-2 with losses to BYU and Utah. SDSU can bang down low with Abukar and Habel and everybody's finally healthy which has been a rare occurance recently. The Aztecs have also really been picking it up on the defensive end the past few weeks, including at Air Force where they held the Falcons to 39% shooting. The Falcons have gotten severely outrebounded on the road this season and I think the trend continues tonight. Air Force ultimately keeps it very, very close but SDSU picks up another game on the Falcons in the standings.

San Diego State 60 Air Force 56

LSU at Tennessee
LSU has put themselves in a really tough spot needing a road win against the Vols. And I'm really not sure how they can win. Davis and Mitchell have to absolutely go nuts against UT's smallish frontcourt to lead LSU to victory. Unfortunately, that still might not be enough due to, perhaps, the worst guard play in the SEC right now. And that's not good news when you go up against Pearl's press. Now that Minor's off the team, which probably IS good news for LSU, the Tigers really only have two guards that can effectively bring the ball up the court. Temple's an awesome defender and I'm sure he'll do a good job on a hobbled Lofton, but I think Tennessee just has too put around the perimeter for LSU.

Tennessee 80 LSU 71

Other scores
A-10
Villanova 81 St. Joseph's 69

ACC
Wake Forest 91 Winston-Salem State 52

Big 12
Missouri 76 Iowa State 72
Texas Tech 75 Nebraska 66

Big East
Providence 84 Cincinnati 69

Big South
Winthrop 79 Liberty 66
High Point 71 Savannah State 69

Big Ten
Ohio State 78 Michigan 63

Independents
Utah Valley State 78 UC Davis 58

MAAC
Manhattan 74 St. Peter's 57

MAC
Kent State 71 Toledo 64
Ohio 75 Western Michigan 73

MVC
Missouri State 80 Illinois State 68

Mountain West
BYU 74 Wyoming 65

OVC
Tennessee State 72 UT-Martin 59

Patriot
Holy Cross 69 Army 58
Bucknell 60 American 55

Southern
Davidson 81 UT-Chattanooga 70

Sun Belt
Florida Atlantic 79 Longwood 72

Predictions for Feb 5th

2007-02-05T17:39:00.000-05:00

I'll be adding more than just a score for the bigger games of the day in the future. However, seeing as tip offs are just an hour away, the scores will have to do for tonight.

AEC
Vermont 70 Boston U. 63
Albany 76 Hartford 72

A-Sun
East Tennessee State 71 Campbell 59

Big 12
Texas A&M 68 Texas 63

Big East
Syracuse 73 Connecticut 68

Big South
Coastal Carolina 74 Radford 63
VMI 110 Charleston Southern 103

Horizon
Wright State 66 UW-Milwaukee 58

MAAC
Marist 83 Rider 81
Fairfield 76 Loyola ( MD ) 75

Mid-Continent
Valparaiso 75 Chicago State 66

MEAC
Delaware State 65 Morgan State 51
South Carolina State 59 Maryland-Eastern Shore 51
Florida A&M 67 Hampton 65
NC A&T 73 Howard 68
Norfolk State 69 Bethune-Cookman 60

MVC
Northern Iowa 62 Indiana State 54

NEC
Sacred Heart 85 Wagner 80
Central Connecticut State 74 Long Island 66
Fairleigh Dickinson 68 Monmouth 65

Southern
UNC-Greensboro 81 Wofford 72
Charleston 79 Western Carolina 65
Citadel 61 Elon 56
Appalachian State 88 Georgia Southern 84

SWAC
Alabama A&M 65 Arkansas Pine-Bluff 61
Jackson State 81 Southern 78
Alcorn State 82 Grambling state 79
Mississippi Valley State 63 Alabama State 55

WCC
Pepperdine 86 Portland 78
St. Mary's 80 San Diego 75
Santa Clara 77 San Francisco 70
Gonzaga 84 Loyola Marymount 74

WAC
Utah State 76 New Mexico State 71

Here we go

2007-02-05T17:09:00.000-05:00

I believe it's time for me to join the wave of 2001 and start a blog.